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fred hickey @htsfhickey
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
COT report confirms what I've been saying.This gold decline is all about leveraged speculative futures SHORTING. Another 20K added to the shorts to a mammoth 215.5K - 200% higher than 2 months ago. As seen before,no long contract liquidation -actually 3,500 longs added(thru Tues)
Perspective on this record, outta-this world Large spec gold short position: Approx 45% more short contracts than at Dec 2015 bottom at $1050. Approx 230% higher than gold bottom puke in late-2008 (driven mostly by LONG liquidation). Short covering rallies are violent. Buckle up!
This sort of upside down situation could only occur in the mad, mad, mad world of computer/quant/algo-driven trend trading nuthouse we have today. Humans (many of them at least)couldn't be so stupid to get this far short(over their skis). I bought a couple of favorite miner names
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Some may be wondering why the 10AM gold smackdown when DXY $ index was down&yuan was up too. The early AM rally had taken gold futures to just below key technical "resistance" level&any higher would've caused those record,off-the-charts shorts a lot of pain. So it was beaten down
If one looks back at the early 2016 gold short squeeze (& I have)these same types of battles occurred in first couple of weeks before shorts were overrun (and then the gold rally really got going). But before that - it was two steps forward& one step back type-battles with shorts
I don't buy all the govt conspiracy theories that gold's being "suppressed." It's the large spec traders (always wrong at inflection points). In early 2016 there were huge numbers of spec. shorts (who got it wrong). Six mos. later they were record long (& wrong again).
Read 3 tweets
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WSJ headline this AM - "U.S. Stocks poised to Enter Longest Bull Market" Might be time to reflect back on just how negative people were on March 9, 2009 "CNN/Money "Special Report issue #1: America's Money Crisis" headline:"For Dow, another 12-year low" money.cnn.com/2009/03/09/mar…
From the March 9, 2009 (stock mkt bottom) CNN story: "We're seeing more of the same," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management. "With an absence of good news, the path of least resistance is down." "every rally attempt is being met with selling"
Nathan Mayer Rothschild reportedly coined the maxim:"Buy on the sound of cannons,sell on the sound of trumpets." With all these "longest bull market record" stories - anyone hearing the trumpets? No one can seem to see or hear the sound of Fed rate hikes &QT tightening(deaf&dumb)
Read 4 tweets
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Looking at chart of total world gold ETF holdings(last 14 yrs). Decline in holdings during recent gold dump is a tiny blip, unlike massive liquidation during 2013-2015 bear mkt. Managed Money (mostly levered hedge funds) Net Short (-77.3K), however, is truly off-the-charts.
The Managed Money Net Gold short(-77.3K)is record by a factor of nearly 4X previous record near 2015 bottom.The bottom in Nov 2008 had 40K net longs.This gold attack was all MM shorts.Not ETF dumps,central banks are buying,Asian seasonal demand has picked up-premiums thruout Asia
Note: Managed Money records have been kept since 2006 - but it's highly likely it's the all-time record.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Gold: Considering that we had a very strong Employment Report out of the US on Friday, #gold performed pretty well over the past 18 trading hours. At $1291/oz at the time of writing it is some $15 above its post-NFP plunge and only about $7 below Friday morning's high.

1/6
Gold: This strength in #gold is not coming from US equity market fears, as US futures are roughly flat.

2/6
Gold: Rather it appears to be a combination of a modestly weaker US dollar, shown here as DXY over the past three days...

3/6
Read 8 tweets
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Gold: I find it ironic that that the government shutdown is making it 'harder' to trade #gold with confidence.

The CFTC's commitment of traders (COT) report is delayed indefinately while the US government is out of action.

1/3
Gold: Fortunately, Comex is not a government entity and continues to function. As you can see from here, open interest is reported daily and has increased quite a lot (4moz equiv) since 18 December.

2/3
Gold: Simplistically, with gold prices going up and OI up, speculators are likely adding to longs, driving the OI change and helping the price move higher.

I estimate the net managed money long is now at least 6.5 moz but could be more if short covering has happened too.

Ends
Read 4 tweets
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Gold: I’ve been on the road for the past fortnight and its worth catching up where we are now. #Gold hasn’t moved too much in the past fortnight, although its at the top of its recent range.

1/6
Gold: As of 27/11 the managed money position on Comex remained net short #gold.

2/6
Gold: Gross #gold longs remain near three-year lows…

3/6
Read 7 tweets
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Gold: It’s been a tough few months for #gold since the middle of the year, but the past three weeks have seen signs of a recovery.

1/10
Gold: And this recovery in #gold is even more pronounced in currencies other than the US dollar.

2/10
Gold: This makes it an unusual rally in gold, as it is moving in the opposite direction to the US dollar - mind another gap, perhaps.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
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I was about to call it a night, but okay since you're here bear with me.

First, let me start out by saying that I respect you as a veteran and thank you for your service to the safety of our country.
As the son and grandson of two vets, I can't say enough about the sacrifice that you guys make. So thank you. That said, I bet there's stuff that we agree on and perhaps more that we don't. But that's life amongst humans.
But what I take most exception to is the way that you've attacked pros, calling for companies to fire some, going after them in ways that go beyond the personal. I know you think it's just a light roasting and why do they take it so seriously and sperg out?
Read 17 tweets
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Gold: Its likely to be quiet today, with the US markets closed for the Labor Day public holiday. But the CFTC released its Commitment of Traders Report on Friday, as usual. To summarise, speculators were still (just) net short #gold as of 28 August. 1/6
Gold: The Managed Money category also remains net short #gold, although as in the case of the legacy report net speculative position, the net Managed Money short decreased slightly last week. 2/6
Gold: There was not much change to the Managed Money gross long #gold positions, which were steady around 11.4 million ounces. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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