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fred hickey @htsfhickey
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Looking at chart of total world gold ETF holdings(last 14 yrs). Decline in holdings during recent gold dump is a tiny blip, unlike massive liquidation during 2013-2015 bear mkt. Managed Money (mostly levered hedge funds) Net Short (-77.3K), however, is truly off-the-charts.
The Managed Money Net Gold short(-77.3K)is record by a factor of nearly 4X previous record near 2015 bottom.The bottom in Nov 2008 had 40K net longs.This gold attack was all MM shorts.Not ETF dumps,central banks are buying,Asian seasonal demand has picked up-premiums thruout Asia
Note: Managed Money records have been kept since 2006 - but it's highly likely it's the all-time record.
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Some may be wondering why the 10AM gold smackdown when DXY $ index was down&yuan was up too. The early AM rally had taken gold futures to just below key technical "resistance" level&any higher would've caused those record,off-the-charts shorts a lot of pain. So it was beaten down
If one looks back at the early 2016 gold short squeeze (& I have)these same types of battles occurred in first couple of weeks before shorts were overrun (and then the gold rally really got going). But before that - it was two steps forward& one step back type-battles with shorts
I don't buy all the govt conspiracy theories that gold's being "suppressed." It's the large spec traders (always wrong at inflection points). In early 2016 there were huge numbers of spec. shorts (who got it wrong). Six mos. later they were record long (& wrong again).
Read 3 tweets
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WSJ headline this AM - "U.S. Stocks poised to Enter Longest Bull Market" Might be time to reflect back on just how negative people were on March 9, 2009 "CNN/Money "Special Report issue #1: America's Money Crisis" headline:"For Dow, another 12-year low" money.cnn.com/2009/03/09/mar…
From the March 9, 2009 (stock mkt bottom) CNN story: "We're seeing more of the same," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management. "With an absence of good news, the path of least resistance is down." "every rally attempt is being met with selling"
Nathan Mayer Rothschild reportedly coined the maxim:"Buy on the sound of cannons,sell on the sound of trumpets." With all these "longest bull market record" stories - anyone hearing the trumpets? No one can seem to see or hear the sound of Fed rate hikes &QT tightening(deaf&dumb)
Read 4 tweets
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COT report confirms what I've been saying.This gold decline is all about leveraged speculative futures SHORTING. Another 20K added to the shorts to a mammoth 215.5K - 200% higher than 2 months ago. As seen before,no long contract liquidation -actually 3,500 longs added(thru Tues)
Perspective on this record, outta-this world Large spec gold short position: Approx 45% more short contracts than at Dec 2015 bottom at $1050. Approx 230% higher than gold bottom puke in late-2008 (driven mostly by LONG liquidation). Short covering rallies are violent. Buckle up!
This sort of upside down situation could only occur in the mad, mad, mad world of computer/quant/algo-driven trend trading nuthouse we have today. Humans (many of them at least)couldn't be so stupid to get this far short(over their skis). I bought a couple of favorite miner names
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Gold: Considering that we had a very strong Employment Report out of the US on Friday, #gold performed pretty well over the past 18 trading hours. At $1291/oz at the time of writing it is some $15 above its post-NFP plunge and only about $7 below Friday morning's high.

1/6
Gold: This strength in #gold is not coming from US equity market fears, as US futures are roughly flat.

2/6
Gold: Rather it appears to be a combination of a modestly weaker US dollar, shown here as DXY over the past three days...

3/6
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Gold: Back in the office for the first time since before Christmas, its time to look back on #gold's recent performance and what may lie ahead.

1/15
Gold: the recent strength in gold has been helped by some weakness in the US dollar.

But as this chart shows, #gold has run ahead of the weakening dollar.

2/15
Gold: plotting its performance in a number of currencies is another way of demonstrating that the dollar has not been the only factor lifting #gold.

3/15
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Gold: The COTR for #gold, released on Friday, for positions as of last Tuesday, show that the Net Managed Money position flipped back into positive territory for the first time since 10 July.

(short thread)
Gold: This was not due to new Managed Money longs coming into #gold, as this chart shows.

2/5
Gold: Rather this was due to further Managed Money short-covering in #gold.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
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#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets
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Gold: Its likely to be quiet today, with the US markets closed for the Labor Day public holiday. But the CFTC released its Commitment of Traders Report on Friday, as usual. To summarise, speculators were still (just) net short #gold as of 28 August. 1/6
Gold: The Managed Money category also remains net short #gold, although as in the case of the legacy report net speculative position, the net Managed Money short decreased slightly last week. 2/6
Gold: There was not much change to the Managed Money gross long #gold positions, which were steady around 11.4 million ounces. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Gold: Sitting like a Coiled Spring, #gold remains below $1200/oz on Monday, although it has recovered a little ground from the lows last week. 1/7
Gold: Why did I use the ‘Coiled Spring’ analogy? Because of build-up of Managed Money short #gold positions held on the Comex Futures market. Gross Managed Money short positions increased by a further 1.7 million ounces last week and now stand at a new record 18.8moz. 2/7
Gold: This has driven the net Managed Money #gold position to a larger net short position. 3/7
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