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Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Two years into the Brexit process and UK politicians still haven't clocked that this kind of rhetoric is entirely counter-productive. Plays well in the UK and very badly in EU member states
Short of withdrawing from NATO and halting exchange of intelligence information the UK has no leverage in defence terms when it comes to Brexit talks.

As long as Brexiters oppose any UK assistance to or participation in European defence integration the UK has no "security card"
There is also something a little absurd in a government that has cut defence funding year after year turning around and claiming the UK has a "security card" when it comes to Brexit.

The EU27 are entirely aware of the state of Britain's armed forces
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A contention I find odd about Relotius is this idea that his lies were brilliantly concealed. His pieces fed conventional stereotypes about other societies among Spiegel's readership in a flippantly emotive style that can at best be accessible and at worst condescending
Relotius didn't get away with it because he was some kind of literary genius. He got away with it because his pieces so seamlessly copied the conventional tropes of post-1990 German journalism that no one could tell the difference between his work and genuinely researched stories
I've been reading Spiegel since I was a kid. Every tmonths there is a story about "those crazy small time Americans", "the rebellious French", "inscrutable Turks", "chaotic Italians", "eccentric Brits", "moody Russians", "wild Arabs", "ungovernable Ukrainians" and so on
Read 8 tweets
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Extraordinary how hard the UK government is fighting to lose whatever leverage it has left over the EU. A deal to protect Northern Ireland from English politics is essential even with a second referendum. But lack of realism over the UK's position after March 2019 is remarkable
Many have the psychology of the UK government during Brexit transition wrong. Tories in particular have strong incentives to pretend that achieving Brexit in itself has been a huge success. May and Gove will avoid any great rows over EU decisions that only underline UK weakness
Any complaints among UK MPs or voters about EU regulatory action that shape UK economic and political life in Brexit transition will be deflected by government claims of all the fantastic goodies waiting for the UK just over the rainbow of a final trade deal with the EU
Read 6 tweets
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Do those who want a referendum before March 2019 rather than during the transition believe security threats without a backstop are manageable and risks from political escalation are controllable? Do they think they can hold the UK union together when all else falls apart?
Because once a state slides into existential crisis even the best intentioned leaders often end up facing disastrous choices
Many on both sides of the UK Brexit debate need to take a harder look at what happens to states in moments of existential crisis.

If you propose a course of action with very high levels of risk at least acknowledge the existence of those risks and factor them into your strategy
Read 4 tweets

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So the ticklish moment awaits.

Consistent with @tombradby am told #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement texts were in London overnight, came back to Brussels this morning. That they are not finally closed, but the EU is "waiting for verdict" to decide next steps. /1
@tombradby Seems like, per @Steven_Swinford
there are still one or two small areas to fix.

But we wait for Cabinet to be called to decide, essentially, if the 'review mechanism' for the Irish backstop really does create some kind of 'exit clause' for UK.

Cabinet set high bar on this../2
@tombradby @Steven_Swinford Interesting that @rte is quoting EU officials saying they don't expect a deal this week.

So we should discount possibility that Cabinet says 'no'. Although the self-imposed pressure for a Nov 24-25 EU Summit is strong. /3
Read 16 tweets
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@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt Die Bürgerrechte der @The3Million sowie @BritishInEurope finden trotz allem zu wenig Gewichtung! Die EU hat nur dann eine Zukunft, wenn sie sich weniger von Lobbygruppen&mächtigen Wirtschaftsunternehmen leiten lässt&ein Bürgerparlament installiert,das mit entscheidet&konrolliert!
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw Another problem,UK democracy is hijacked by populists.@guyverhofstadt“Europe has a 5th column in its ranks:Putin's cheerleaders who want to destroy Europe&liberal democracy:LePen,Wilders..use Kremlin money&intelligence. Farage's friend Banks colluded with Russia 2deliver #Brexit
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw @julienfouchet1 “Our pan-European movement @Eu27K wants to mobilise people in all of the 27 states so that people understand why the UK is leaving the EU–they don’t know in the memberstates that this Brexit is illegal.We aim 2 create a support committee in each of the 27 states.“
Read 51 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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At Chequers @theresa_may, alongside @POTUS, says she thanked him for expelling 60 intelligence officers from #Russia following Salisbury nerve agent incident.
Will pursue a US-UK free trade agreement following #Brexit, adds @theresa_may.
US and UK in agreement on how to deal with #DPRK and #Iran and need for increased @NATO defense spending, declares @theresa_may.
Read 40 tweets
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Two years on from #Brexit referendum vote, UK growth has slumped. Lowest of any G7 country. Lower than Eurozone. Likely to fall further (c. Airbus). But hey, no worries, it's all #ProjectFear say the #Brexiteers (graphic @WSJ)
Still, young Brits can always pick fruit - rather than look forward to careers in high-tech industries like Airbus. Well done #Brexiteers (but hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Consumer spending slumped after Brexit Referendum #PeoplesVoteMarch 🇬🇧🇪🇺 (Well done #Brexiteers. But hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Read 5 tweets
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So. #Brexit has slipped out of the headlines - but like two prizefighters, both sides are setting themselves for the fight to come. Some of the battles are EU v EU, some UK v UK.

So what's going on? Here's a quick overview from what I know.
1/thread
First the UK v UK debate.

As we report today, David Davis and Olly Robbins are representing conflicting views over how 'ambitious' the UK should be in the scope of the non-binding annex on trade and the future relationship. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It seems DD got his way in sending a letter asking Govt departments to tool up for Brexit negotiations, including teams of specialists.

Time will tell if this was a face-saving measure for the Brexit Secretary who has long argued UK must seek guts of a trade deal in A50. /3
Read 18 tweets

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#Brexit #EEC #GATT #Singapore #ChuckChequers #Barnier #companies #BrexitDeal #licence #Russia #StopArt50Clock #Sue #SPS #EMA #nation #duty #PeoplesVote #brexit #drugs #Hungary #prohibit #Strauss #WindrushGeneration #Italian #NordStream2

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