1. The numbers have gotten uglier for Bill Nelson in Florida. Another 2-point shift may not sound like much, but down here, we're talking about > 100K votes, even for a midterm. On approvals, Rick Scott is still well above water, while Senator Nelson is now slightly upside down.
2. Spoiler Alert: When our model is published (shortly), you will notice that Florida is rated, Slightly Republican. We've slightly changed our ratings structure (for better), but it's just before "Leans" which will mean actively moving. We're giving Bill Nelson the benefit but
3. We're giving Bill Nelson the benefit of the doubt for incumbency, but there's now a clear advantage for Rick Scott in the race for U.S. Senate. There are specific targets in Florida among certain groups a D must hit if they're losing the white vote this badly. He's not...
4. In cycles past, Bill Nelson has done very well among white voters, even as they abandoned his party in droves under Barack Obama. They didn't add to their rolls. That's just a fact. And they continued to decline as an overall share. Basically splitting Hispanics, he can't win.
5. A cautionary note, we've seen this before in Florida, where certain Republicans appear to poll better among Hispanics than they do on Election Day. But we've never seen that margin hold (it's actually improving for Scott) like this in monthly tracking. Nelson needs to either
6. Bill Nelson needs to run up SF turnout to offset that nearly even margin among Hispanics statewide, or drag down Rick Scott's share of the white vote. In fact, he needs to do both. The former alone will not be enough, a painful lesson a few learned about Florida in 2016.
7. That said, it's arguably a wiser strategy for Bill Nelson to try to drag down Rick Scott's share of the white vote by going after women in the suburbs. The challenge, is that they like Rick Scott. These are independent, soft Trump voters, who actually do pivot. They're in...
8. They're in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough, etc., most of which are counties Rick Scott was once viewed more negatively. But now, he is not. Post-Irma was a case study on how a politician can revamp their image even in the purplest of polarized states. For approval... we once...
9. For approval, our all-time low for Rick Scott is 39%, and the all-time is 61%. For this era, and in this state, it's a remarkable image turnaround. Stunning even.
10. Wanted to give you an "e.g." on how/why polls can differ. We're close to Gravis on GOP Gov. primary, but to FAU in U.S. Senate. It's the demos, specifically the % of blacks (15%) vs. Hispanics (12%) in general election sample. We have more Hispanics (18%) than blacks (12%).
