Profile picture
David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Friday afternoon means the weekly update to the Brexit Probability Index, the index that the financial markets probably should be following, even though it neither properly measures probability, or is an index...
This week's move is a small upgrade in the possibility of a Northern Ireland solution coupled with an FTA, away from the cryonic Brexit. It still seems unlikely the UK will accept a Northern Ireland solution... but perhaps a little low previously...
Here's the changes over time...
And the longer explanation prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-bre…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to David Henig
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK see all

Profile picture
As forecast the UK Government has committed to following a significant part of single market rules after Brexit as part of the backstop and commitments to Northern Ireland (doc - assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
Although the Government paper says this will be "only a small fraction of EU rules", in fact there are nearly 70 pages of the Withdrawal Agreement simply listing the regulations Northern Ireland will have to follow under the backstop (example page below)
In case you are missing the significance, the UK Government has confirmed that the whole country will follow EEA / single market disciplines without any representation until a new deal can be agreed.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Brexit is testing Parliamentary procedure. The Government does not command a majority.

Might as well break protocol further, it is time for a Parliamentary committee to take control of the Brexit process.
Yes, I can think of many reasons why this won't work, but nothing that would work better. We're going to be stuck in Parliamentary bickering for weeks unless something new is done.
See also this Guardian proposal as championed by @stellacreasy among others for a Brexit citizens assembly. We have to break out of where we are and not perpetuate divisionism theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
1) Why Labour #Brexit Conference policy is flawed

Unfortunately Ben is wrong here, Corbyn is following the agreed policy here because that policy let's him do exactly what he wants on Brexit, not what the members want

The policy is a well crafted stitch up
2) there's 2 consistent themes from Corbyn supporters
a) this is the policy Labour conference overwhelmingly supported
b) Corbyn's following that policy to the letter
Both of these are true, but neither stand up to critical examination if we're being honest
3) in terms of the first "this is the policy conference supported" well, as a remainer its essentially the same as the non meaningful vote May tried to create
May's choice was her deal or no. Deal which, if true, is no deal at all
It was the same with Labour conference policy
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
1. It is not conspiratorial to say that both Johnson and Rees-Mogg are front men for a very narrow set of interests. they are relying entirely on the IEA think tank set for ideas - which sees #Brexit only in terms of how their financial backers can advance their interests.
2. I have never heard JRM or Johnson give a detailed and convincing anti-EU speech. They know how to drop in buzzwords and eurosceptic terminology but they have stolen the clothes of anti-EU scholars who used to make up the eurosceptic movement.
3. Very skilfully they have cleaved euroscepticism away from Ukip which has freed itself to concentrating on grunting about Muslims. Most of the founders have either gravitated to the Tory fringes or bowed out completely.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
So, Twitter. In light of the ongoing clusterfuck that is #brexit, let me tell you a little about my white, Australian experience of dealing with the UK visa authority, a complete shitshow of a bureaucracy that is in no way prepared to handle what's coming.
My husband and I first moved to the UK in January 2011. He'd been given a position at a good university there - however, because the Tories had slashed the number of visas any uni was allowed to sponsor, they were unable to sponsor him even though they'd hired him.
Fortunately for us, my maternal grandfather was born in the UK, which meant I was eligible for an ancestry visa. A much more expensive visa than a sponsored one would've been, but it came with greater protections and my husband could work as my spouse. So we opted to do that.
Read 34 tweets
Profile picture
Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
Profile picture
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
Profile picture
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PeoplesVote #RemainInTheEU #subsidy #ChequersPlan #barriers #permit #investigation #Brexit #production #criminal #penalties #brexit #territories #jeans #French #TBT #veterinary #AIQ #prohibit #betterfuture #employment #quote #drinks #Singapore #trademark

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!