Thread by @yinkanubi

9. Having concluded its investigation, the CBN ordered the banks to refund to it the $8.1Bn that was “illegally Repatriated”. Does this mean that the money belongs to the CBN? No. The CBN is asking for return of its USD in exchange for the Naira MTN gave in return. #MTNRefund

Now this is where it gets interesting. Should the MTN return the $8.1 billion its shareholders collected and the CBN return back to them the Naira it got in exchange, it cld lose upto N2Trillon in the process. Do the Math Compare the $/N rate in 2007–2015 to rate today #MTNRefund

At the end of the day, the real negotiation (and there will be a negotiation) will be about the justification of this differential and not the entire $8.1 Billion. Will it be a two way negotiation between the banks and the CBN or 3 way with MTN included. We wait. #MTNRefund

In Summary

1. It's a "refund" not a "forfiet". If the trade of $8bn is executed, MTN will get back its Naira while the CBN get's back its dollars. Meaning that in actual fact, the refund is going back in the books of MTN.

2. CCIs are issued by Banks and not the CBN. #MTNRefund

Are there consequences for this move by the CBN? Oh Yes! It'll make many investors to take notice. The reality is that many investors have always played fast and loose with the rules. You can't blame them. But u can't blame the regulator either when he decides to wield the stick.

I know for a fact that yesterday, there were indeed frantic calls from major capitals to their Nigeria CFOs to be sure they are on solid footing. It is also likely that banks will be more careful going forward to ensure compliance with the rules on capital importation. #MTNRefund

It is instructive that compared to MTN, the reactions of the indicted banks has been relatively measured. It could well be that they don’t want to take on their regulator or it could also mean that they know that they’re in the wrong. #MTNRefund

This movie is far from over. It is just getting started. #MTNRefund

This is not THE END 😀