3/China has a record of supersizing systems, in compressed timeframes. Pouring more cement in five years than the US poured in the 20thC; erecting a high speed rail system in less than a decade. When China supersized coal, it made a mistake. A big mistake, it's now correcting.
4/ China's war on air pollution began around 2013. Not a coincidence: its coal consumption peaked that same year. The year 2013 also saw China's deployment of wind and solar skyrocket. We can credit China, in fact, with igniting the learning rate in solar, to all our benefit.
5/ China absolutely cannot accomplish its goals if the future of its vehicle market continues to branch towards ICE vehicles. It must conduct one of its characteristic supersizing campaigns to kick the river, so to speak, towards EV. Add yes it's happening gumroad.com/l/Ajqxz
6/ Why might this matter, just a little, to the oil market? Because half the oil market is past peak demand, in some regions, well past peak demand. Every region on the left side of this chart is past peak: 
7/ The US, an oil nation now well past peak demand, but where oil still composes over 40% of its total energy use, has had a much harder time constraining its oil growth. China is not an oil nation. It's a power (electricity) nation. Oil only composes 20% of its total energy use.
8/ A common model of China's future has held that it will adopt oil in the 21st century in the exact same way that the West adopted oil in the 20th century, marrying an ICE vehicle to every citizen or household. Yeah, that's not a good model.
9/ Accordingly, China, unlike the West, doesn't have the same legacy ICE fleet to transform. It only needs to put the hammer down on future ICE growth, and it's doing exactly that. China's goal: first, halt the *growth* of ICE sales by 2020, then halt (ban) ICE sales by 2030.
10/Just as in California, and the US, China is heading towards a point of convergence in the year 2020, when growth of new EV sales will claim ownership over all the growth in the vehicle market. That will be the moment when China, which composes 13.2% of the global oil market...
11/...will start to move over towards the half of the global oil market now past peak demand. This is unfolding very quickly, driven by three forces: policy, affordability, and a cultural shift. China's EV market, growing above 40% per year, is the new-new supersizing phenomenon.
12/ One of the primary calculations I undertake in the Oil Fall series is to look at how much growth is occurring just from new wind and solar in the US and China, that could serve future growth of power demand from EV. Brief answer: more than enough already.
13/ Let's rank, therefore, a bunch of regions on how large a share combined wind+solar is already taking, in their electricity systems. Here's a chart from the just released China Sudden Stop:
14/ To give some sense of how fast this is moving, it appears that once domains get past the 5% share level of combined wind+solar in their power systems, the subsequent gains comes rather quickly. Look at the US: last year wind+solar were 8.2% of electricity. This year? 10%.
15/ Confirmation that the future of oil growth has darkened is of course coming directly from the industry itself, which, through its greatly reduced spending and investment, confirms the Last Oil Cycle is now behind us. Look at the O+G services companies: no recovery post 2014.
16/ For those who've read part one of the Oil Fall Series, just an update: all the growth forecasts for EV, wind+solar, and all the constraint forecasts for gasoline use, remain on track in California. If anything, the Golden State will move even faster gumroad.com/l/xVXxQ
17/ And now a note of pessimism, which I acknowledge in the Oil Fall series: the arrival of peak oil demand is not celebratory news for climate concerns, because peak oil demand will not = rapid oil demand declines anytime soon. Peak is coming, but dependency is stubborn.
18/ Peak oil demand will wreak havoc on the O+G industry, which is leveraged to growth, and also oil producing nations. But it will not usher in an era of rapidly declining oil use. Given historical timelines, the world will take a decade, if not more, before declines set in.
19/ The final installment of the Oil Fall series will address the economic surpluses to come as the world starts to transition away from combustion, and the gigantic energy loss of combustion. Every domain pursuing this path will reap enormous rewards. gumroad.com/l/xVXxQ
20/ China has enormous economic gains to harvest from this transition, and even greater gains to human well being. But we will all benefit from how fast China is moving as it will impact wind, solar, and EV affordability for the rest of the world. gumroad.com/l/Ajqxz
China will put at least 1 million new EV on the road this year. Given the rate of EV sales growth in China, in what year might we expect EV sales to overwhelm sales growth of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, thus terminating ICE sales growth?
Poll results: While we wait to see how China's vehicle market evolves the next 3 years, already through the first 9 months of 2018 we are on track to see no growth in ICE vehicle sales as total market advances by a slower 1-1.3% while EV takes all the growth, up over 40%.
Accordingly, one should conservatively conclude--and frankly this is amazing--that a strong signal is already arriving in 2018, that ICE vehicle sales growth, slowing greatly, towards zero, is being truly overwhelmed by EV growth in China.
The @TerraJoule_ newsletter earlier this week addressed this update to China's EV market share acceleration: us7.campaign-archive.com/?u=0860f685d9d… … | see: also latest view from BNEF's @colinmckerrache:
