According to research by Nobel Prize winners Kahneman and Tversky, humans are intuitively not good statisticians. I will now describe the following characteristics of a person to you. Your task is to tell me the profession of that person from 2 choices. Sahil is very shy 1/n
and withdrawn , invariably helpful but with very little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.” Is Sahil more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
The most common reply to the 2/n
The most common reply to the 2/n
question is that Sahil is more likely to be a librarian than a farmer. This is surely because Sahil resembles a librarian more than a farmer, and associative
memory quickly creates a picture of Steve in our minds that is very librarian-like. One thing which completely slips 3/n
memory quickly creates a picture of Steve in our minds that is very librarian-like. One thing which completely slips 3/n
the mind is that there are more than 50 times as many farmers in India as are librarians, and the ratio of male farmers to male librarians is even higher. This probability based on empirical evidence is called the base rate. It is a very important concept to understand. 4/n
That's because I'm using it to deliver a very important and hard hitting fact home. Consider this:
90% of India's NGOs, the guiding light of the 'poor' and the 'downtrodden' do not file their annual statements. 90%.
indiatoday.in/india/story/90… 5/n
90% of India's NGOs, the guiding light of the 'poor' and the 'downtrodden' do not file their annual statements. 90%.
indiatoday.in/india/story/90… 5/n
What this means is that at first glance, 9/10 NGOs which you might consider donating money to will mostly have some shady shit going on with them. The crackdown on NGOs should be celebrated not because we're against the uplifting of the underprivileged, but because MANY of 6/n
these angels are opaque organizations with vested interests like illegal conversion, hawala transactions, funding the Naxalbari movement and #UrbanNaxals and other anti-India activities. Do NOT get caught up in beautiful & sunny stories. Ask questions. Remain skeptical. 7/n
Keep it simple, stupid. And this is also the reason I support the crackdown on these opaque NGOs with vested interests who are peddling anti-India agendas with full pomp and splendor. When Naxalites are arrested in the deep dark forests of Chhattisgarh which have no cell 8/n
coverage, how do you think that cases are filed in the Supreme Court the very next day? That too, they are represented by the top dollar lawyers of our country and then entertained by the Supreme Court during midnight sessions? Meanwhile, the common man has to wait for ages 9/n
just for a shot at getting justice. Deal in probabilities, learn to think and don't get swayed so easily by sentimental stories. You're not at fault. We humans are wired this way. It's biology. We like to believe stories. But ask for evidence. Question. Think critically. n/n
Request everyone to share this simple thread on how to avoid getting caught up in grandiose stories and OBSERVE.
@ARanganathan72 @muglikar_ @rahulroushan @RajivMessage @vivekagnihotri @Chopdasaab @ramprasad_c @GappistanRadio @coolfunnytshirt @attomeybharti
@ARanganathan72 @muglikar_ @rahulroushan @RajivMessage @vivekagnihotri @Chopdasaab @ramprasad_c @GappistanRadio @coolfunnytshirt @attomeybharti
