Just spent 3 days in Italy at the big Ambrosetti Forum on the World and Italian prospects. A few personal take-aways: 1) China talks as a big defender of multilateral order and is gaining power. Russian participants also expressing wish for international cooperation. 1/5
2) Europe strategically needs one big unified capital market supported by one money to foster innovation and bigger tech firms. Needs also to follow China in investing in African development. Hopefully, the Commission will propose Tuesday an effective common migrations policy 2/5
3) The world economy faces two more years of decelerating but good growth but with a downturn during 2020 that (in my view)will start in the US. Europe will need then a more active fiscal policy. 3/5...
4) technology and resources are now available that would allow the World to do a really big jump in the use of renewable energies. Again, big contribution of China. The obstacles are the vested interests of old energy sources. 4/5..
5) I come away more convinced that Italy will not challenge European fiscal rules and intends to stay in the euro, reflecting surveys that show 60% of Italians in favour of staying in the euro area ( see also my interview) corriere.it/economia/18_se… 5/5
Of course, if Trump steps up into a trade war now, all bets are off and the two years may shrink....
