Thread by @scianalysis

Jerry Brown dropped massive announcement to kick off GCAS: Not only will the state legally commit itself to carbon neutral electricity by 2045. It's going to do that for the WHOLE DANG ECONOMY.

gov.ca.gov/wp-content/upl…

Let that sink in for a moment.

This is going to take some time to unpack, but I'll give a few initial thoughts.

First, how big is this. Massive. I struggle to think of a metaphor equal to the task without diving into war imagery, which just doesn't fit here.

Current executive orders commit the state to an 80% reduction in emissions relative to 1990 levels, by 2050. Current law, which is stronger and harder to overturn than an executive order, calls for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045, and a 40% reduction in GHGs by 2030.

So, the obvious question is: how big and durable of a commitment is that?

Big. Yes, a future governor could overturn it w/ a stroke of a pen, just as it was enacted by a stroke of a pen, but this isn't meaningless window dressing. CA agencies are obligated to try to achieve it.

How do we meet it?

We know how to do this in several big, key sectors. Electricity is the easy one. Transportation isn't easy, but we know how to do it. Electrify everything we can, use zero-C electricity to power it. Use low-carbon biofuels or hydrogen for everything else.

For everything else, It's important to note that the language calls for net neutrality, not that everything be zero-emission. So, there will be a role for offsets, sequestration projects and to help natural lands in-state return to health and start absorbing carbon again.

So, in practice, this will probably look like an accelerated path towards the 80% reduction target and an expanded focus on things that take carbon out of the air. Lots of questions here.

Will CA commit itself to 80% emissions reduction by 2040?

We probably should.

Can we meet this target while sustaining our strong economic growth?

Yes, and we are as certain of this as we are of any economic projection that goes out 20+ years.

But luckily there's a lot of flexibility here. If it looks like the last 5-10% of emissions is particularly tough to deal with, sequestration and offsets can help bridge the gap.

Still, CA clearly becomes the first major economy on an emissions trajectory compatible with a 2C or less global outcome. As always, our impact is going to be through blazing a trail more than the total tonnage of GHG we cut, but there is no denying the leadership.

So, lots of work ahead for myself and others. We don't have to eat this elephant in one bite and there are a lot of different ways to meet this goal. Lots of interpretation, negotiation and effort ahead, but I am so excited about the prospect, my hands are literally shaking.

For a more thoughtful analysis on this point, I'd highly recommend this article from @EnergyInnovLLC

forbes.com/sites/energyin…