So about that Latvian politics thread, I'm going to get started on that and I imagine it's going to be pretty long one so if this isn't your kind of thing I recommend muting the thread. I've got kind of a headache and this much later than I intended to do this but whatever
I want to start off by saying I am by no means an expert on this subject. I'm just someone of Latvian descent that has a little fondness for the country because it's kind of obscure and I feel like if I'm not an advocate for Latvians no one else will be.
I've studied a little Latvian but I definitely wouldn't say I speak the language so most of my resources are in English, which means that I might not be able to give the full details on things. Latvia has a lot of unique circumstances regarding it's geopolitical position.
It's a fairly small country of just 2 million people but it has a substantial Russian population going back from centuries of occupation, and Latvia for all intents and purposes has been colonized by Russia since it first took over the region in the early eighteenth century
Latvians are the slowest growing ethnic group in Europe and they've often been threatened with becoming a minority in their own country, Latvians only making up 52% of Latvia's population in 1989. Latvia's current population is lower than it was when first gained independence in
1918. This is seen as a major issue in Latvia, one that along with language policy and the relationship with Russia remains the government's primary concern. I know Latvian citizenship laws fairly well because when I was younger I looked into possibly getting citizenship.
Latvian citizenship laws have programs that encourage ethnic Latvians to return to the country, and I wanted to get it for the sake of EU citizenship. The laws dictate however that you have to have a Latvian ancestor born before the Soviet occupation to be viable for it.
Non-Latvian citizens born in the country after Soviet occupation - not just Russians but Ukrainians, Belarusians and Poles as well - were not granted automatic citizenship upon independence in 1991 despite being promised that in exchange for support for the independent government
To this day approximately 14% of Latvia's population, mostly ethnic Russians, are still stateless. Russia does not recognize ethnic Russians born outside of Russia as Russian citizens, so for many of these people they have no representation whatsoever.
Language plays a very big part in this too and Latvians regard their language - one of the oldest in Europe along with Lithuanian in the Baltic group - as one of the defining parts of being Latvian. Latvian is the only official language in the country
Livonian, a nearly extinct Finnish dialect, has official protection and so does Latgalian as a historical variation of Latvian, but notably Russian despite being the first language of 34% of the population is not afforded any recognition at all.
Ability to speak the Latvian language is a critical part of the naturalization process, something that is used to push for assimilation of the Russian population thus a point of contention. In Latvia a law was passed a few years ago making it so that all schools must teach all
of their curriculum in Latvian. This was resisted in the southeastern portion of the country - where most of the ethnic Russians live - and instead a compromise of 60% Latvian and 40% Russian in the curriculum was made.
Most of the country still enforces the Latvian-only curricula however so in the capital of Riga, where only 44% of the population is ethnically Latvian, Russians and other ethnic groups are expressly forbidden from learning in their native language.
Discrimination against non-Latvians in Latvia, especially ethnic Russians, as you can imagine is extremely common and citizenship is regularly used as a means of doing so. In 2005 studies showed that only 38% of Latvian citizens supported granting voting rights to non-citizens
for the municipal elections. Even with voter suppression the Russian minority has always been a very significant force in Latvian politics though, with the Latvian Russian Union being a major party in the government until recently.
The rise of groups like the National Alliance has seen a dramatic fall in Russian representation in Latvia, with the far-right party openly warning about allowing the minority to participate in elections. Latvians make up 59% of the population but 71% of the parliament
Latvia since its independence from the Soviet Union has always had an extremely antagonistic position against Russia, and its one of the most enthusiastic supporters of NATO, Latvia contributes the highest percentage of its military to NATO operations of any country
With the increased tensions with Russia in the past few years - including a massive Russian training op conducted near the Latvian border last year - defense spending and national security is one of the top voter issues in Latvia.
I don't think it's any exaggeration to say that if Latvia wasn't a member of NATO Russia would have invaded and did what they've done with Ukraine long ago, and I think that's what most Latvians believe too.
Don't take this as me defending NATO necessarily, Latvia has atrocious human rights records with regards to ethnic Russians and that needs to be addressed, but Russia invading Latvia when it won't even give the Russians living there Russian citizenship won't improve things.
It's no surprise that public opinion in Latvia is heavily in favor of the far-right government in Ukraine, and groups like the National Alliance have used what's happened there to promote more draconian laws enforcing Latvian culture and language while opposing immigration and
naturalization of non-citizen residents. Prior to the economic recession Latvia was the fastest growing economy in the European Union, but in the case the larger they are the harder they fall and it's since seen the worst decline of all EU members.
Latvia's economy has gotten better over the past few years but it's still weak compared to what it was in the 2000s and Latvia remains as one of the countries with the lowest human development index in the European Union (which is still very high by world standards)
The economic collapse in 2008-2009 was one of the chief architects in the rise of the far-right National Alliance, a coalition formed in 2010 from the LNNK and the All for Latvia party - the latter of whom are open neonazis whose symbol is a reversed swastika
In the 2014 general election they managed to gain 16.6% of the vote, which granted them enough influence in the Saeima to start making demands from the ruling coalition that has seen the whole course of politics in Latvia shift far to the right.
Like most European democracies Latvia's parliament the Saeima has a proportional representation system with an electoral threshold of 5% and 100 members. It has both a president and a prime minister same as the other Baltic countries but unlike Estonia the president in Latvia has
limited executive power, but not as much as the president in Lithuania has. All motions pushed by the president have to first be signed off by the prime minister.
This has historically led to Latvia having very divided elections in the past, with the first major elections in 1995 leading to the Saeima being drawn between 9 parties with largest only having 18 seats. This means coalitions dominate everything and parties quickly rise and fall
In 2014 the social democratic coalition Harmony won the election with a margin of only 1% over the liberal conservative Unity, leading to the formation of a government under the latter that collapsed in the space of a year. It's important to point out the National Alliance was a
major component of Unity, who then had the ZZS (a green conservative-farmer coalition very similar to Nordic agrarian parties) take leadership of the government that it's maintained since. Even though they're the fourth largest party in the Saeima the National Alliance has
dictated a lot of the votes, for example threatening to bring down the governing coalition a year ago when the president presented the Saeima with a bill to grant automatic citizenship to children of non-citizens born in Latvia.
If you look at most of the opinion polls that have been taken recently the National Alliance has emerged as the largest contender with Harmony for the 2018 election, with the "New Unity" that's been organized down in the single digits despite nearly winning the last election
Harmony is still the favorite to win by double margins in most opinion polls, but it makes me really worried to see that a socdem party - whose socially very conservative by EU socdem standards - be the only opposition to a far-right coalition with open neonazis in it.
My fear is that even if Harmony wins by a sizable margin the elections next month the National Alliance the other conservative leaning coalitions - New Unity and ZZS - will back the NA in the Saeima like NA did for them in the 2014 election, taking Latvia from a veer right into
a straight crash course with neonazism becoming normalized and even enforced more than it already is in Latvia.
Based on opinion polls so far an alliance of New Unity, ZZS and the NA would about equal Harmony for seats in the Saeima, creating a situation like in Germany following 1932 where a stalemate precluded a takeover of the government. At least that's what I'm afraid will happen
Like the centrist parties in Germany in the early 1930s I think most of them, Harmony included, are more inclined to work with the National Alliance rather than oppose them in any meaningful way.
Harmony's ace up its sleeve has always been Russian voters though because they're the only major party that champions the issues of ethnic Russians, something that I think will get really tested in the coming months. Either they continue to back their constituency or they fold.
Given that the NA will likely try to veto any policy changes regarding the Russian minority however, it's doubtful things will get better either way. No Russophone party like Harmony has ever led a governing coalition in Latvian history, even with them winning the 2014 elections
So most people will look to the NA as the only alternative to Harmony as a leader for the government, and that's probably the worst-case scenario. The neonazis basically just get handed the government, like the nazis were in Germany in 1933
I'm not familiar with the workings of the Ukrainian government post-euromaidan but I imagine the process was fairly similar, and it won't surprise you to know that the NA are big supporters of the Ukrainian regime and look to it for inspiration.
Things that have also made the 2018 elections worrying are the candidates disqualified for things like disloyalty (yes that's something you can be barred from public office for in Latvia). Usually it's been used to remove communists from the government
After independence in 1991 one of the first acts of the new Latvian Republic was to ban the country's communist party, despite being one of the major proponents for independence and overthrowing the Latvian SSR. You still can't get citizenship in Latvia if you have ties to any
communist parties by the way. The Latvian Socialist Party, the LSP, took the LCP's place but it's remained one of the smallest parties with seats in the Saeima since and normally doesn't contest the elections in favor of backing Harmony.
But my worry is that the NA will abuse concepts like "disloyalty" to the state to bar all of their opponents from running in the future, making their takeover of the government very simple once their in place to be making the laws. Latvia's descent into open fascism will be quick
This is following a trend in eastern europe that I keep seeing of countries being divided into two camps effectively - those who support neonazis, and those who support pro-Russian autocrats. It's really frightening to see for someone like me who actually likes the area a lot.
The question of how things go will come down to Riga in the 2018 elections I think. Riga has one-third of Latvia's population and possesses the bulk of the economy, as well as being Harmony's main voting base outside of southeast Latvia where there are Russian majorities
Riga hasn't seen as much economic growth since 2014 as was predicted and there's been many accusations of Harmony using funds earmarked for local projects to promote its 2018 campaign. The city will likely be what sways the election to either a Harmony-led government or
a pro-National Alliance stalemate. Even if Harmony wins completely it won't likely make things better in Latvia, just delay the inevitable, but it'd be nice to go a little longer without seeing a country I'm affectionate for fall totally under neonazis
I wouldn't be surprised if Latvia forms the linchpin in what major crisis comes next with Russia, and I imagine the Kremlin will keeping close tabs on what happens in the 2018 election. Latvia might provide the crack in the NATO wall that Putin is looking for.
No matter what happens I feel like Latvia loses, and the people being marginalized like the country's ethnic Russians will just become pawns in larger conflicts that will see them erased off the map.
If the National Alliance comes out on top in the elections, I fear we'll see them start carrying out government-sanctioned ethnic cleansing. Latvia's people are generally conservative-minded enough that I do think that can happen.
It's also important to note how common corruption is in the Latvian government. Scandals are pretty common and its dominated by oligarchs, who not unlike the billionaires in the United States are the major movers behind the elections. Latvia is classified as a "flawed" democracy
Either way the elections go I wouldn't be surprised if there are major rallies and even riots - in 2009 at the height of the financial collapse a crowd of 10-20 thousand people went so far as to try to storm the parliament building in Riga.
70% of Latvia's population was classified as either poor or unemployed then so it was significant circumstances but I think we're starting to approach those now too with a danger of neonazis taking over the government.
I mean a lot of this goes to show why I am an anarchist, as nationalism and states are at the center of why Latvia's in this situation. For many ethnic Latvians the preservation of their culture and language trumps all other concerns. That's why they have so many neonazis
Russia is normally regarded as the most direct threat to this, though Germany has historically contributed just as much to the loss of Latvian culture as Russia has. I think this informs a lot of the eurosceptic conservatives in Latvia, a country that otherwise is pro-EU and NATO
I'll definitely have more on this to say once the 2018 elections finish in October, and we'll see whether it's going to be happy things or angry things. Probably the latter no matter what happens though, I don't see any "good" outcomes just maybe ones that aren't totally bad
