Brazil is about to have an election with enormous stakes, one in which the very survival of its democracy may hang in the balance, and we're not paying nearly enough attention to it.
(Thread.)
(Thread.)
This guy, Jair Bolsanaro, is likely to come top in the first round of the presidential election, to be held October 7th. This will put him in a strong position when he faces a likely run-off against the second placed candidate on October 28th. 
Bolsanaro is a clear threat to women & minorities. He is
* homophobic: ("If I see two men kissing in the street, I'll beat them.")
* mysoginistic (after fathering four boys, he conceived his daughter "in a moment of weakness")
* racist (immigrants are "the scum of the earth")
* homophobic: ("If I see two men kissing in the street, I'll beat them.")
* mysoginistic (after fathering four boys, he conceived his daughter "in a moment of weakness")
* racist (immigrants are "the scum of the earth")
Over the years, Bolsanaro has also been remarkably open about his authoritarian predilections:
* The dictatorship in Brazil was "glorious."
* Chile's Pinochet "should have killed more people."
* "I am in favor of a dictatorship" and "would launch a coup if elected" (from '90s)
* The dictatorship in Brazil was "glorious."
* Chile's Pinochet "should have killed more people."
* "I am in favor of a dictatorship" and "would launch a coup if elected" (from '90s)
(For those who still idolize Chavez, it's also worth noting that Bolsanaro admired him when he took power: "He's a hope to Latin America and I wourld like if that philosophy came to Brazil. I think he'll do what the militaries did in Brazil in 1964, with much more strength.")
Of Balsanaro wins, there's a lot of reason to fear he may succeed in destroying Brazil's democracy. The country has:
* A recent authoritarian legacy.
* A deeply discredited political class.
* A lot of racial tension.
* Rampant inequality.
All of these are risk factors.
* A recent authoritarian legacy.
* A deeply discredited political class.
* A lot of racial tension.
* Rampant inequality.
All of these are risk factors.
Two points are particularly worth noting.
1) Political scientists long believed that liberal democracies are safe once they reach ~$14k GDP per capita. Hungary shows that even more affluent democracies can erode. But the risk is much more acute in Brazil, where GDP is only ~9k.
1) Political scientists long believed that liberal democracies are safe once they reach ~$14k GDP per capita. Hungary shows that even more affluent democracies can erode. But the risk is much more acute in Brazil, where GDP is only ~9k.
2) Brazil shows how quickly dashed hopes can turn into dangerous resentment.
Lula promised to transform the country. He had some real achievements and mostly resisted the siren of Chavezian populism. But his and his party's corruption bred the cynicism that propels Bolsanaro.
Lula promised to transform the country. He had some real achievements and mostly resisted the siren of Chavezian populism. But his and his party's corruption bred the cynicism that propels Bolsanaro.
The latest polls also indicate two very interesting voting patterns:
1) Bolsanaro is popular among the young and especially those aged 25-34.
2) He does much better among middle-class voters with a middling level of education than among the poor and uneducated.
1) Bolsanaro is popular among the young and especially those aged 25-34.
2) He does much better among middle-class voters with a middling level of education than among the poor and uneducated.
That's just one more of many data points that should heal U.S. and U.K. commentators of naive assumptions about populism.
The "right" populist can appeal to the young; the affluent; and even to a coalition of racial minorities (as we see with the Rob and Doug Ford in Canada).
The "right" populist can appeal to the young; the affluent; and even to a coalition of racial minorities (as we see with the Rob and Doug Ford in Canada).
For about a decade, Latin America seemed to be turning away from populism and authoritarianism. This trend is now running in reverse.
If Bolsanaro wins, leaders wth authoritarian leanings will rule in two of the continent's most populous and important countries: Brazil & Mexico.
If Bolsanaro wins, leaders wth authoritarian leanings will rule in two of the continent's most populous and important countries: Brazil & Mexico.
Recap:
* Brazil's next president may well be a sworn enemy of liberal democracy.
* He will almost definitely victimize minorities and has a real chance of establishing an authoritarian regime.
* He is sadly part of a much larger trend, in Latin America and beyond.
The end.
* Brazil's next president may well be a sworn enemy of liberal democracy.
* He will almost definitely victimize minorities and has a real chance of establishing an authoritarian regime.
* He is sadly part of a much larger trend, in Latin America and beyond.
The end.
