Thread by @HoarseWisperer

Just gonna lay this down here...

Behind the public facade of McConnell being all in on Kav, Treason Turtle knows that R voters tend to vote best when they're voting angry.

Repubs got their best polling news in two years this week. The potential for a Kav loss woke the base.

1/

While a highly public defeat would seem like just that - a defeat - McConnell inevitably knows that it could be just the ticket to saving control of the Senate in November.

In ordinary times, I'd see the push to vote on Kav as a dire sign.

Today though, not so fast...

2/

A Kavanaugh defeat at the hands of Murkowski, Collins and Manchin wouldn't hurt Murkowski or Collins much (if at all) but would hurt Manchin - and more importantly, would probably swing the generic ballot 3-5 points nationwide.

A loss here would be a win in 30 days.

3/

Add to that what will inevitably happen if Kav goes down today:

All of us on the left, jubilant at a bullet dodged and justice served, will do a victory lap... and that video will get looped and looped and looped until the midterms.

No one likes to lose - especially losers.

4/

Do not be surprised at all if Kav goes down today and McConnell feigns great sadness and disappointment while barely holding back a Montgomery Burns-esque smug grin.

We might be getting a little played here, folks.

Sometimes a designed loss isn't a defeat; it's a tactic.

5/5