I'm basically retired from MMA stuff and didn't write anything about McGregor-Khabib. A brief thread of my thoughts, for those interested:
The basic dynamic of the fight is initiative and who holds it. Both Khabib and McGregor like to move forward, Khabib to use the fence for takedowns and McGregor to keep his opponent at distance and set up his counter left.
Both guys are perfectly capable of doing other things: McGregor can stick and move at range with some skill, and Khabib's content to toss out a nice jab when he wants to take a break and get his gas back.
The basic question is who gets their fight more often. If Khabib gets stuck on the end of McGregor's reach and eats counters without pushing McGregor to the fence, he's in huge trouble. If McGregor gets jammed against the cage defending takedowns for long stretches, that's it.
McGregor can and will hit Khabib on the way in. Khabib can and will get McGregor to the fence. The real dynamic is how much of each happens. Will McGregor's counters scare Khabib off? Will McGregor panic when he's constantly forced onto his back foot?
This is trickier for McGregor than Khabib. We know Khabib can take a shot, we know his pressure game is relentless, and we know McGregor doesn't like being pushed back; he gasses when he's forced out of his preferred range and spot in the cage.
McGregor will have tricks up his sleeve to deal with this. His footwork has improved, and he'll be able to pivot, sidestep, and find angles for counters. But can he keep that up for rounds at a time with Khabib in his face, and not panic when he's clinched or taken down?
That's what makes this a tough matchup for McGregor on paper: not Khabib's takedowns, but staying calm and composed enough to keep the fight in a place where the takedowns are less likely to happen, while still landing enough offense to hurt Khabib or score for a decision.
It's a matter of temperament as much as raw skills for McGregor. This is his puzzle to solve, assuming Khabib does what we expect him to and tries to get chest to chest with McGregor. There's an off chance Khabib tries to be patient for a while, but I doubt it.
All this means there are two overwhelmingly likely outcomes: McGregor flattens Khabib with a counter left or Khabib relentlessly bum-rushes a panicked McGregor and smashes him against the fence. Either way, we should know within about 7 minutes.
It gets interesting if things go past the second round. We know McGregor has real mental toughness to him, if not a deep gas tank, and he's smart enough to adjust. We don't know that about Khabib if he's not getting exactly his kind of fight.
So, outcomes. In lieu of a pick, I'll rank them in my order of likelihood:
1) Khabib, ground smashing/submission, 10-20 minutes in
2) McGregor, standing KO, inside 10 minutes
3) McGregor, back-and-forth decision
4) Khabib, back-and-forth decision
1) Khabib, ground smashing/submission, 10-20 minutes in
2) McGregor, standing KO, inside 10 minutes
3) McGregor, back-and-forth decision
4) Khabib, back-and-forth decision
This concludes my McGregor-Khabib thoughts. Back to writing about how the Ottomans smashed a crusader army at the Battle of Nicopolis in 1396.
