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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Remember everything you've heard about Democrats' suburban surge?

It's wrong. OK maybe not wrong. It's partly right! But polling tells a more complicated story. Dems are performing just as well in rural Obama-Trump districts as urban Clinton-Romney ones.

53eig.ht/2SgbPm5
p.s. As my friend @ForecasterEnten points out, in special elections this year and last year, **2012** results were more predictive than 2016 ones. The same is true in polls of Congressional races this year.
Another underrated fact is how well Democratic incumbents are doing in *states* that shifted from Obama to Trump. The Midwestern D senators in OH, WI, PA and MI are all poised to win re-election, probably easily. That suggests a mean-reverting election more than a realigning one.
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
Read 3 tweets
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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1. Wow. There is a subplot to the election fraud scheme unfolding in North Carolina that is absolutely insane.

This is DEEP in the weeds, but worth it.

Let's go.
2. So Jeff Smith owns a "video sweepstakes" business in Bladen County, which is apparently a place you an go and win money for playing video games.

The head of the Bladen County GOP, Landon Bordeaux, goes to Smith and says that he's about to get raided by the current sheriff.
3. But Bordeaux says, there's an out. If Jim McVicker wins the 2014 election for sheriff, Smith will be in the clear.

Bordeaux asks Smith to give McCrae Dowless $4000 IN CASH to help McVicker win. So Smith does it.

And it works. McVicker wins by 350 votes!
Read 13 tweets
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#Thread on the recent election from Western Kansas #ksleg Representative Adam Smith (adapted to @Twitter from his newsletter here mailchi.mp/b503f6027825/h…)
The election night map showed a significant portion of Kansas blanketed in red and only some of the the highly populated counties showing blue.
A Picture Is Worth 1000 Words

It's not always black and white... or in this case, red & blue.

The first look at the above map from the Secretary of State's website after the initial election results were complete may leave some Kansans feeling like their voice doesn't matter.
Read 26 tweets
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Had another great #Macbeth rehearsal with fun language discoveries. We tackled 3.2, the pre-banquet scene. Also basically tha last scene between the two of them (other than the coda to the banquet). #shakespeare
In 3.2, Macbeth tells Lady to treat Banquo well at the feast: “present him eminence, / Both with eye and tongue”
Compare this to their first scene where Lady tells him: “Bear welcome in your eye, / Your hand, your tongue.”
Read 11 tweets
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JUSTICE: My client who was jailed & charged on Wednesday night with armed robbery bravely testified last night before the grand jury and the grand jury *dismissed* the case against him. He’s free from Rikers & now trying to win back the job that he lost when $10k bail was set.
I met this 56 year old man 24 hours after arrest. On paper it looked bad. A man allegedly held up with a sharp object to his stomach while my client demanded his money, took $20, & fled. He had over 20 convictions on his record, and has just been released from prison in April.
By the time I went back to meet him in the cells behind court, the prosecution had already made their decision. 1st degree robbery. With his record, 10 year mandatory minimum sentence. 25 max. They’d be requesting $25k bail. He was in big trouble. Rikers was all but certain.
Read 22 tweets
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THREAD

Signs that #Election2016 was rigged (judge for yourselves)
1.There are plenty of examples were the #UnitedStates has been involved in trying to rig or likely has been a part of rigging foreign elections.
2.1948 election in# Italy, #USA agencies "threw everything, into helping the Christian Democrats.

1950s, the #CIA allegedly helped the West German Christian Democrats, led by Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, to come to power.
Read 79 tweets
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1. Okay #auspol, here comes the big #s44 #citizenship drop. Someone will have to bring this up, and actually someone who should know better already has. Let’s get some height first, survey the terrain and identify the targets.
2. On Sunday I listed the 15 lower house MPs I believe most likely to be headed out the door because they’re dual citizens. I could add about ten more, the tap never stops running, but for now this thread reviews the cases of one category of MP.
3. Either now, or later, you’ll ask yourself “who is this cassowary and how did he find out all this stuff?” Easy: I looked. I’ve spent nearly 100 hours on this. Also, I’m pretty good at patterns and analysis. I used to work as a journalist and in humanitarian relief.
Read 59 tweets

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