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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Remember everything you've heard about Democrats' suburban surge?

It's wrong. OK maybe not wrong. It's partly right! But polling tells a more complicated story. Dems are performing just as well in rural Obama-Trump districts as urban Clinton-Romney ones.
p.s. As my friend @ForecasterEnten points out, in special elections this year and last year, **2012** results were more predictive than 2016 ones. The same is true in polls of Congressional races this year.
Another underrated fact is how well Democratic incumbents are doing in *states* that shifted from Obama to Trump. The Midwestern D senators in OH, WI, PA and MI are all poised to win re-election, probably easily. That suggests a mean-reverting election more than a realigning one.
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