Maybe I'm wrong, but between there not having been that much polling over the past few days and the polling we've seen having pretty much gone to form, it seems unlikely that polling in the final week is going to radically change the outlook.
We'll go into 11/6 with the GOP as likely but by no means certain to win the Senate & also with a plausible tail scenario where things real get bad for Ds.
...and with Dems as likely but by no means certain to win the House, with a tail scenario where things real get bad for Rs.
...and with Dems as likely but by no means certain to win the House, with a tail scenario where things real get bad for Rs.
To put it another way, I doubt we'll exit the lean/likely zone in either chamber. We call elections "toss-ups" when no party has a >60% winning, and "solid" when one party has >=95% chance. Anything in between is in the lean/likely zone.
Of course, the lean/likely zone is broad. A 89% chance is a lot different than, say, 63%. But for a long time, the press tended to treat elections as either nearly certain (~99%) or totally uncertain (50/50). So if we can get people to recognize the lean/likely zone, we're happy.
