. @LarrySchweikart and I have been bullish on Arizona for a while for the simple reason: GOP voters said they would vote. And they did by margins that require Sinema to win indies by appx. 2 to 1. Unfortunately for her, immigration jumped for them and the indie vote shifted.
Put simply, it's not a matter anymore of whether Sinema will win indies 2 to 1. It's a question of whether she will win them, at all. Could be the caravan. But as immigration rose as a top issue (surpassing EDU & HC), she lost double-digit support among indies. It's a collapse.
I have to add one more to this.
Sinema's negatives, while not horrible, have increased. McSally is seen more favorably. All of this a few days before Election Day... you'd rather be McSally.
Sinema's negatives, while not horrible, have increased. McSally is seen more favorably. All of this a few days before Election Day... you'd rather be McSally.
