Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #azsen

Most recents (24)

It's that time of the year again...

🚨 The first fundraising thread of 2023 🚨

#CASen: Rep. Katie Porter (D-47) announced raising $4.5 million this quarter.

This has the potential to be the most expensive Senate race of all time
#AZSen: Politico scoops that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) will report "more than" $9.9 million cash on hand entering April. Normally, candidates announce what they raise, not what they have on hand, so this was a bit different
#AZSen: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-03) announced raising $3.7 million in Q1 2023. No cash on hand number provided. Comes after Sinema camp says they're entering April with $9.9 million cash on hand
Read 5 tweets
#AZSen: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-03) is in. He launched his Senate campaign with this video highlighting his upbringing and military career:
Gallego's shot at Sinema in his intro video: "The rich and the powerful, they don't need more advocates. It's the people still trying to decide between groceries and utilities that needs a fighter for them."
The Replace Sinema Project: "As she jet sets with the international elite and does favors for her Wall Street donors at the expense of working Arizona taxpayers, Kyrsten Sinema shows us daily that she is only out for herself, and it’s time for new leadership."
Read 4 tweets
New from me @TheSpectator:

Newly-Independent #AZSEN @kyrstensinema's use of @actblue directly violates the platform's policy that it is ONLY for Democrats

It's huge trouble for Independent Sens. @BernieSanders and @AngusforMaine #VTSEN #MESEN…

Let's be clear from the onset:

@ActBlue is ONLY for it makes clear on its own website.

@kyrstensinema, @BernieSanders, and @AngusforMaine are NOT Democrats #azsen #vtsen #mesen…

If you're even passingly familiar with my reporting, you'll know that I've covered @ActBlue's whimsical and nonsensical policies for years

We talked about @kyrstensinema specifically on @newsmax last week with @JohnFBachman and @BiancaDLGarza

Read 29 tweets
Thank you defeatists Never Trumpers for whining all month how no-chance @HerschelWalker has in the runoff which helped depress GOP vote.

Thank you!

Go ahead. Let me read your latest Blame-Trump Thread/Article.

(Walker is a rubber stamp for @LeaderMcConnell so whatever).
For an OMG-BAD candidate, Walker held his own.

In 2018, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 points. She was held up as a good candidate and ran again in 2022.

Walker lost to an incumbent Senator by only 0.9 points in November, and it is quite close in the runoff (despite defeatist NTs).
A reminder to @EWErickson et al that in early 2020, Kemp appointed Loeffler as Senator as the Establishment's choice to the seat now held by Warnock.

"McConnell backs Georgia governor’s pick for Senate amid Trump skepticism." - Politico 12/3/09.

Go ahead. Blame Trump!
Read 19 tweets
🧵There can be only one Trump: One pitch I regret not writing and trying to get printed over the last five years was that President Donald Trump is a one-time phenomenon. Not his ideas, I want to stress. But his candidacy and methods. Others who try to emulate him will fail. (1)
First, there is his money. He has a lot, and he knows a lot of rich and richer people. He is famously stingy, so he reveled in getting others' money to help him, which he could do. And he was famous, so he got a lot of grassroots money. (2)
Using this formula, @seanhannity and a few others thought Dr. Oz would be a good candidate for #PaSen. They turned their nose up at David McCormick, a solid conservative and former Trump aide, who had solid help from Chris Wilson's @WPAIntel et al. (3)
Read 9 tweets
.@RRHElections Indeed, candidate quality matters:

The machine's Martha McSally who lost #AZSen by 2.4% in 2018, lost it again by 2.4% in a year that Trump lost the state by only 0.3%.

@KariLake this year is down only 0.6 there and the AG candidate broke even.

cc @EWErickson
.@SeanTrende Besides, many Republicans/Cons who whine about Trump Candidates, made it fashionable or even a call of patriotism for Republicans/Cons to oppose Trump/his candidates, and when they lose (often by fractions), the saboteurs are like all "see? We told you." cc @brithume
Hey @SeanTrende @RRHElections @EWErickson @brithume: I am not sure how candidates of such low quality that they fail in high turnout GOP primaries, would suddenly win the general. The first test is to win the primary, and candidates need many of these "crazies" for the general.
Read 7 tweets
First time candidates, fully and complete Trumpian and with a big focus on 2020, essentially broke even in #AZGov and #AZAG. Yet, Never/Non-Trumpers think that this (which would tip into wins with a slight better GOTV op) proves something AGAINST Trump...

A slight better GOTV Op, and #AZGov #AZAG R in GOP hands.

Less broken machines on election day; a day where the GOP outnumbered Dems, and #AZGov, #AZAG R in GOP hands.

Less Sabotage by Anti-Trump Blackmailers, and #AZGov, #AZAG (AND #AZSen) R in GOP hands.

But cry about Trump.
I love the GOPs/Cons who decry Trump's focus on 2020 but then those same folks keep whining how AZ and other states have the same election day/vote counting issues that Trump complained about and wanted corrected, yet you told him to move on.

Make up your mind, folks.
Read 4 tweets
The gains the Dems made here is *VERY* important for understanding how the next several days are likely to go as they process the remaining 275,000 or so ballots in Maricopa County

BLUF: Dems are well-positioned to win these statewide races
You can take the #AZSEN and #AZSOS races off the table -- AP has called the Senate race for Kelly, NBC has called the SOS race for Fontes. Both lead by 5%+ and would need to win nearly 2 in every 3 remaining ballots to come back. That won't happen.
In the #AZGov, #AZAG and #AZSPI races, the Republicans still have the ability to come from behind. But today's drop favoring Dems means they have a steeper hill to climb.
Read 7 tweets
MariCo has posted 74k ballots. The surge of GOP voters predicted by Republican campaigns failed to materialize

Kelly's lead today grew from 114,894 votes to 123,916 (@AP called the race for @CaptMarkKelly

Hobbs' lead went from 26,879 last night to 31,097
Fontes' lead went from 109,244 to 118,125

Mayes' lead went from 16,414 to 19,151

Hoffman grew her lead from 3,852 to 6,665
This batch of ballots were the 17,000 that couldn't be scanned on Election Day at polling sites (likely VERY heavily favoring GOPers) and early ballots dropped off at polling places.

Dems made significant gains all around
Read 4 tweets
MariCo has posted 78k ballots that favored Dem candidates

Kelly's lead went from about 104,570 votes to 114,894

Hobbs' lead went from 19,385 to 26,879
Fontes' lead went from 98,329 to 109,244

Mayes' lead went from 9,800 to 16,414

*Lead change*
Hoffman went from trailing by 2,568 to leading by 3,852

This batch of ballots included only early ballots that were mailed back, not those dropped off at polling places on Tuesday.

Republicans believe that those ballots will be heavily GOP, similar to Election Day voters, which were heavy GOP
Read 4 tweets
Trump +17 county, and the results before this batch were Lake +16. Not sure that's what Rs want...and definitely not what Masters wants (this is frankly embarrassing for him at this point).
Still a coin flip IMO, too much unknown about what's left. Be wary of anyone saying either party's got this in the bag. They don't.
Read 4 tweets
hey folk! @ClimateHawkVote hardly ever endorses incumbents, but there's an urgent situation in Georgia, so we're endorsing @ReverendWarnock today. Donate! and short thread WHY, beyond the obvious.
@ClimateHawkVote @ReverendWarnock UNobvious: Georgia is becoming a clean energy powerhouse and much of that is @ReverendWarnock's doing. Batteries for EV plants in Augusta? That's him getting infrastructure bill funds.
@ClimateHawkVote @ReverendWarnock UNobvious: remember that LG/ SK trade dispute that would have kept an EV battery factory from being built in GA? @ClimateHawkVote got involved because I talked w/ a Warnock staffer.
Read 7 tweets
On @NRSC call this AM with donors/supporters, @LindseyGrahamSC stressed the #GASEN runoff strategy will be to flood FOX News programs + Hannity on behalf of @HerschelWalker, per a person on call.

Graham, @SenRickScott + @newtgingrich spoke

Noted Libertarian won't be on ballot.
@NRSC @LindseyGrahamSC @HerschelWalker @SenRickScott @newtgingrich On same @NRSC call, @LindseyGrahamSC stayed bullish on #NVSEN arguing dropbox ballots are performing closer to E-Day turnout split.

Only a very short mention on #AZSEN ... where @bgmasters has a tougher climb back.
@NRSC @LindseyGrahamSC @HerschelWalker @SenRickScott @newtgingrich @bgmasters This as analysts note that Catherine Cortez Masto is likely to overtake Adam Laxalt by the weekend, thru mail-in ballots.

The source noted this was a call to keep the faith and rai$e money.
Read 3 tweets
Lots of ballots left to count in Arizona (beyond this list there's also ~180k from Pima County, plus other counties with unconfirmed totals).

If you recall from 2020, the "late early vote" favored Republicans.

Masters is still in the game.


With the above confirmed county vote totals (645505) and his deficit statewide (83,262), Masters would need to carry remaining ballots by 12.9% to take the lead. It's certainly possible.

Agreed. The Maricopa County drop tonight (should be coming at 6pm Pacific Time) will be helpful.

Read 4 tweets
People want to make every election win/loss about Trump/not Trump.

Trump campaigned endlessly with JDV in OH; he won by 6.6.

Odea in Colorado made anti-Trumpism his banner issue and he lost by double digits.

cc @mattklewis @EWErickson @benshapiro @SeanTrende @AnnCoulter
Zeldin didn't hug or run from Trump and lost by only 5+ in a deep-blue state!

Dems and kept hammering him on Trump. Maybe if he embraced Trump he could've made up the gap from pro-Trumpers since anti-Trumpers anyway got the anti-Trump message from Dems.

Who knows.
Then there is the part of Never/Non-Trumpers saying that X can't win yet those Never/Non-Trumpers either don't vote for X or even actively oppose X. When X loses, the Nevers are all "HAHA. We TOLD YOU they can't win!"

See what @KarlRove did in #PAGov against the GOPer.
Read 42 tweets
We watched 135+ debates so you didn’t have to — and Democrats said some crazy things.

Here are some of the most insane debate moments from Democrats this cycle.

Minnesota Democrat Rep. Angie Craig: “I will never stop standing up for Big Pharma and standing against my constituents!” #MN02
Oregon Democrat Tina Kotek called for "meth stabilization center[s]" in Portland — "in addition to making [full drug decriminalization] work." #ORGov

Read 18 tweets
How to know that Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh and Blake Masters are LYING when they tell voters that Trump supposedly won Arizona and it was "stolen" from him (it wasn't, he lost).

From my #TrumpLost research project.
81.74% of Arizona's Voting Age Population (VAP) according to the 2020 Census lived in its two largest Metropolitan Areas - Metro Phoenix and Metro Tucson. Biden won both of these Metro areas.
Even before the Election of 2020, Trump-endorsed candidates did not necessarily do great in Arizona, especially in statewide elections.
Read 9 tweets
Trump's MAGA, Inc. SuperPAC has filed its first $4.81M of independent expenditures with the FEC:

#OHSen $1,393,168
#AZSen $1,100,052
#GASen $916,043
#PASen $787,754
#NVSen $615,115…… ImageImageImage
Trump's MAGA, Inc adding another $3.8 million in ad reservations spread across several states, bringing its general election spend to $8.6 million.
Adding this to last week's tracking and its FEC filings, Trump's MAGA, Inc. spending should now be at a bit over $11 million distributed across five races.

#AZSen $2.83M
#OHSen $2.39M
#PASen $2.36M
#NVSen $1.85M
#GASen $1.8M

Read 5 tweets
Recapping the Senate spending over the last few hrs, Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC and its Georgia Honor affiliate dropped $16.27M in 7 races....

#PASen $4,264,866
#GASen $3,227,382
#AZSen $2,076,036
#NVSen $2,017,685
#WISen $1,777,623
#NHSen $1,733,888
#NCSen $1,175,122
...Democratic group Future Forward PAC logged $2,046,894 in the #PASen race...
...and the NRA Victory Fund made $1.7M in radio ad IE buys in five races:

#GASen $524,287
#PASen $416,039
#NCSen $345,962
#WISen $211,979
#NVSen $203,190
Read 4 tweets
Should there be some limits on abortion?

Most Americans say yes.

But Arizona’s U.S. Senator @CaptMarkKelly says NO.

Ahead of his debate tonight with pro-life @bgmasters, here's a quick summary of Kelly's extreme pro-abortion record:

#AZSen #AZPol
Mark Kelly supports abortion:
– when the baby has a heartbeat
– when the baby can feel pain
– when the baby could survive outside the womb
– abortion on demand up until the moment of birth with no protections for babies who survive failed abortion attempts.
Sen. Kelly voted for and is an original cosponsor of the deceptively-named “Women’s Health Protection Act,”– better known as the Abortion on Demand Until Birth Act:…
Read 8 tweets
NEW ARIZONA BATTLEGROUND TRACKER FROM @CBSNewsPoll: @SenMarkKelly leads @bgmasters in #AZSEN. Majority approval of Kelly’s job performance and he is the most personally liked of the four statewide candidates tested for Senate and Governor.…
Kelly enjoys wide lead among voters who say abortion very important, but that advantage countered somewhat by voters who emphasize immigration. Immigration is 3rd “very important” issue. Among voters saying immigration very important, Masters leads big, helping keep race close.
In the wake of a judge reinstating a law that bans virtually all abortons in AZ, most voters would have abortion be legal in all or most cases; majorities would not criminalize it. 
Women, more so than men, say an illegal abortion should not result in a criminal penalty.
Read 15 tweets
Wow, even for midterms, this is a new one.

@EchelonInsights poll of #TXGov (813 LV, 8/31-9/7):

@GregAbbott_TX: 48%
@BetoORourke: 46%

Biden underwater at 41-58 in TX (47-52 nationally)…
@EchelonInsights @GregAbbott_TX @BetoORourke Okay, now some other good insights from this.

#AZSen and #AZGov:

@KariLake: 40%
@KatieHobbs: 50%

@bgmasters: 37%
@CaptMarkKelly: 52%

(773 LV, Biden approvals at 40-59)
#GASen and #GAGov:

@ReverendWarnock: 50%
@HerschelWalker: 40%

@staceyabrams: 48%
@BrianKempGA: 47%

(751 LV, Biden approvals: 43-55)
Read 11 tweets
One development that's become clear from the last few weeks, and why I moved #AZSen to Lean D @SplitTicket_:

Very few people think this race is that close right now. But Thiel has no intention of spending more, and McConnell and co. need the $ for Ohio.…
@SplitTicket_ Of course, people could be wrong (and why it's Lean D, not safe). You may remember 2020, when this was the consensus and then every poll overshot Kelly's margin. But folks can only make decisions on resource allocation based on data they have, and Kelly is up by a fair amount.
@SplitTicket_ If you're Mitch McConnell and you see internals from *your own side* saying Tim Ryan is up by 4, do you (a) hold your fire in Ohio and continue spending in AZ to reverse a Kelly +8 lead? Or do you punt and then try to save Ohio?
Read 6 tweets
Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.

#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.

Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Read 4 tweets

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