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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Democrats lead by 8.3 percentage points in our generic ballot average, a dramatic reversal from 10 days ago when they led by 8.2 percentage points. 53eig.ht/2rXyJ7H
We're getting a lot of 7s, 8s and 9s here. A couple 10s and 11s. A couple 5s and 6s. Kudos to any pollsters willing to go outside that range because there's usually a lot of herding at the end here.
CNN has Dems +13 (!) and Morning Consult has Dems only +3 (!) so they're on the kudos list so far for not herding.
USC Dornsife/LA Times: Dems +15!!!

Rasmussen Reports: GOP +1!!!

Not my favorite pollsters, but bold moves!

53eig.ht/2ztjYLi
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
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I am doing this series of posts to explain how #Democrats have become #Communists and they are working from the playbook of Karl Marx.

Please read and retweet.

#DonaldTrump
@CRTV
@charliekirk11
@RealCandaceO
@FoxNews
@BillOReilly
@realDonaldTrump
Why does George Soros want to collapse the border?
ANTIFA don't see themselves as losing America they see themselves as GAINING THE WORLD. Communism was a Global Revolution.
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🐬It's getting closer and closer to the midterm elections and #Democrats need to #FlipTheSenate. If you can contribute—great—if not, there are other ways to help: by following their account, tweeting about them, spreading the word, volunteering, getting others to contribute, etc.
🐦Let's start with Heidi Heitkamp @SenatorHeitkamp, running for U.S. Senate in #NorthDakota. Please follow, tweet, contribute, volunteer, anything you can do, she is in a tight race.

💸To contribute, even $1 if you can spare it!

secure.actblue.com/entity/fundrai…
🐦Next, Claire McCaskill @clairecmc, running for U.S. Senate in #Missouri. Please follow, tweet, contribute, volunteer, anything you can do, she is in a tight race.

💸To contribute, even $1 if you can spare it!

secure.actblue.com/entity/fundrai…
Read 25 tweets
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Trump: Day 600
-Detaining 12,800 Migrant Children
-Diverted $10M From FEMA to ICE
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Read 65 tweets
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1) If you are listening to the MSM over the last two days, you would think that we are about to get destroyed in the House come November. Chuck Todd has the Democrats winning 40 to 60 seats.

breitbart.com/video/2018/08/…
2) Lindsey Graham today said that the Democrats will have a 12 to 15 seat advantage in the House.

thehill.com/homenews/campa…
3) I could go on and on but I won't because this is all FAKE NEWS!

The polling that has come out from the same liberal pollsters this month are painting a very different picture!



From the article linked above:

The latest round of polls that look
Read 13 tweets
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1) 🚨 EMERGENCY BREAKING NEWS 🚨

Haiti is in a state of Emergency! Violent protests & fires happening all over Haiti right now! The news reports repeated story about fuel price spikes causing this. I am reporting in real time from Haiti source.

@POTUS @realDonaldTrump @FoxNews
2) Bear with me, I'm typing as it's coming in. The building of Parliament in Port-au-Prince has just completely burned down. HAITI NEEDS ASSISTANCE NOW! @realDonaldTrump
3) These aren’t just protests. The fuel prices sparked rage in an already uncivilized, lawless place. They are starting fires nationwide. Attacks are happening everywhere at the highest levels!
Read 208 tweets
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Long thread: One of these is not like the others. The generic ballot average or trend has taken a dip recently, but it is largely driven by a dramatic change in one poll, the Ipsos/Reuters poll. 1/
Ipsos/Reuters has been in line with other generic ballot polls and not unusually volatile over the past year. But since May 1, the Ipsos/Reuters results have turned sharply towards the GOP. 2/
Here are the Ipsos/Reuters results using their 5 day rolling sample since they began asking the generic ballot May 23, 2017. These, and all results in this post, are for registered voters. (h/t to Reuters for making this available) 3/
Read 15 tweets

Trending hashtags

#ChildTrafficking #BestFirstFamilyEver #DrainTheDeepState #Muslim #muckraking #Leon #OperationMockingbird #Romanian #American #Indian #CivilWar #ABetterDeal #CarlosSalinas #HaitiNeedsHelp #Alaska #OpiodCrisis #IRAN #FastNFurious #suicided #MarchForOurLives #InternalPolls #Democrats #California #OrangeHitler #InvasionCaravan

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