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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Why do Dems think they'll win the House today?

I spoke to Dan Sena, executive director of the DCCC, about the grand strategy.

Sena revealed what keeps him awake at night.

He also shared new details on covert spending in red territory.

My new piece:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
A few key tidbits from my interview with DCCC exec director Dan Sena.

First, Sena acknowledges that Trump's whipping up of xenophobic panic does work for Republicans in some areas.

But it *helps* Dems in other areas:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
Second, Trump's energizing of the GOP base with all the xenophobia and hate rallies is a genuine wild card.

As Sena acknowledges, Dems can't be sure what the impact of this will be.

This is the "biggest question that keeps me awake at night," he says:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
Third, Sena talks about Trump's role in energizing the Democratic base an interesting way.

Basically, no matter what Dems do or say, Trump is everywhere. He is saturating everything -- whether he's talking about immigration or any other topic:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
Finally, Sena reveals that national Dems have been covertly spending in some red districts -- an effort to put more turf in play at the last minute:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
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More from @ThePlumLineGS see all

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The migrant crisis reveals Trump's immigration strategy is failing, an important new NYT report demonstrates.

An anonymous Homeland Security official, and others at the border, confirm what's really happening.

Deterrence through cruelty is a failure:

nytimes.com/2019/01/04/us/…
This is what I've been trying to argue. The right way to describe Trump's handling of immigration is as a massive failure. And the endless lies about this issue illustrate the wrongheaded and sometimes delusional worldview undergirding this failure.

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
Here's another revelation from the NYT piece.

Administration insiders *know* that Trump's latest moves to get "tough" on the border will either fail or be unjustifiable to the American people.

But the WH keeps insisting they forge ahead anyway:

nytimes.com/2019/01/04/us/…
Read 4 tweets
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1) As Trump ends the year with a flood of lies about his wall, we need to recapture a core truth about this presidency.

Trump isn't “twisting the truth” or “stubbornly refusing to admit error.”

Trump is engaged in *disinformation.*

This is a different thing entirely.

*THREAD*
2) The WaPo and NYT fact checkers have now posted their year-end pieces. They are notable.

Via @glennkesslerwp, Trump has now passed the 7,500 mark in falsehoods and distortions as president:

washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/…
@GlennKesslerWP 3) Meanwhile, @YLindaQiu points to a pattern in which Trump regularly converts his falsehoods into “alternative facts” through “sheer force of repetition.”

This is the essence of the matter.

nytimes.com/2018/12/29/us/…
Read 13 tweets
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Please focus on this, it's important.

Trump's threat to cut off aid to Northern Triangle countries is flatly contradicted by recommendations for addressing the migrant crisis from *both* the State Department *and* his own Customs and Border Patrol chief:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/…
Trump just said again that Central American countries are scamming us.

This is foundational to Trump's delusional worldview.

Trump called Mexicans rapists *and* he claimed Mexico "sends" them to us.

That's why he vowed to make Mexico pay for the wall.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/…
In the Trumpist mythology, other countries send us their outcasts and laugh about it. Only Trump is tough enough to end it.

Thus, his failure to make Mexico pay for the wall isn't a small, tangential broken promise.

Trump's vow to do this was a pillar of his entire worldview.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Today's insight from negotiation theory:

Sometimes delaying a decision can be helpful, but only if you have an active plan for later resolution

1/
Sometimes, decisions can be too hard to make right now.

Too politicised, sides too dug in, that kind of thing

2/
Delay can help here, as an active choice

Tempers can fall, context can change, you can do stuff indirectly that might help

3/
Read 10 tweets
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1. THE HAND HOLDING THREAD

Before we start let's be clear. The exit polls will 100% scream that the Dems are going to win 435 house seats and win all 30+ Senate seats as well as take over ever state governor and state legislative body.

IGNORE THEM.

They are propaganda.
2. As I've said for months turnout will determine the outcome today. All those polls?

They no longer matter.

Early voting data?

Most states will post the EV first so in many states like NC it will appear the D's are winning. Ignore the early returns in those states.
3. Important to remember:

All those pundits, talking heads, pollsters, and fake media people know as much as you. Hell in many instances, they know less because they live in a bubble.

Ignore them.

Turnout will determine this election and as of know there is no way to know.
Read 12 tweets
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YOONMIN AU

soccer team captain Min Yoongi finally has a crush on someone! It’s surprising, he has never shown interest in anyone. Park Jimin, the new student is lucky to have the captain’s attention but the boy doesn’t want anything to do with soccer players, he hates soccer.
Please don’t reply to the thread or it will break~

This AU is inspired on Matt and Julie from the TV Show Friday Night Lights. But this is soccer, goal and keeper y’know. Also, high school students feel everything ten times more intense so don’t judge these dramatic babies.
Yoongi knows today's an important day. For the team, for him. It’s the first day of his last year on school, his first day as the captain of the soccer team and the day when they will finally meet their new coach. To say he's nervous is an understatement. He's panicking.
Read 313 tweets
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Today I spoke with Anne Chandler, executive director of @tahirihjustice Houston office, about the child-parent separation happening right now. Anne and her colleagues assist immigrant women and children, and she gave me some insight into what she’s been seeing: 1/6
@tahirihjustice “In the shelters, they can’t even find the parents because the kids are just crying inconsolably, they often don’t know the full legal name of their parents or their date of birth. They’re not in a position to share a trauma story like what caused the migration.” 2/6
@tahirihjustice “And that’s where these attorneys are frustrated—they can’t be attorneys. How do they talk and try to console and communicate with a five-year-old who is just focused on 'I want my mom or dad,' right?” 3/6
Read 7 tweets
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All the dirt on Maxine Waters you could ever want to know.
discoverthenetworks.org/individualProf…
WATERS' TIES TO COMMUNIST & SOCIALIST GROUPS, CAUSES, & INDIVIDUALS (INCLUDING FIDEL CASTRO)
n 1982 Waters lent her name to a pamphlet published by the National Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression, a Communist Party USA front group that was led by Party members and supporters including Angela Davis, Charlene Mitchell, Anne Braden, and Frank Chapman.
Read 287 tweets
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New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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