Today's insight from negotiation theory:
Sometimes delaying a decision can be helpful, but only if you have an active plan for later resolution
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Sometimes delaying a decision can be helpful, but only if you have an active plan for later resolution
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Sometimes, decisions can be too hard to make right now.
Too politicised, sides too dug in, that kind of thing
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Too politicised, sides too dug in, that kind of thing
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Delay can help here, as an active choice
Tempers can fall, context can change, you can do stuff indirectly that might help
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Tempers can fall, context can change, you can do stuff indirectly that might help
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However, it needs to be an active decision: you can't just leave it to chance or have vague hope it'll work out
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If you do that, then high risk things won't improve, and may even worsen, as opponents of negotiation work the angles you've left uncorked
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So, delay can be of use, but only if you're going to make use of it
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Thus major Q today is how will May make use of the time she's giving herself?
Strategy of past fortnight hasn't worked, so needs to be something new
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Strategy of past fortnight hasn't worked, so needs to be something new
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And before you ask, assume renegotiation isn't going to be it, as very hard pushback by EU27 today on substantive concessions
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Only gambits that might have big impacts are likely to be domestic ones
All are high risk
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All are high risk
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Overall, hard to see how this delay is going to help anything
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