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TONIGHT is the much-hyped #pa18 race between @ConorLambPA and @Saccone4PA18. Who’s going to win? Predictions and results: [THREAD]

thecrosstab.com/2018/03/13/pa-…
Before 8PM rolls around, I want to cover what the data say to expect in this contest. This thread will start off running through my predictions, will cover how I’m projecting the race, and will turn into a live blog with graphics when the votes start to come in.
There are multiple ways to predict an election. Polls, geographic data, demographic data, etc are all useful. I’m going to run through what all these measurements could predict in #pa18. Spoiler: it’s a mixed bag for both Lamb and Saccone.
Read 28 tweets
1/
Forget good/evil

By Sessions taking himself off the questions
1-eliminated himself as biased
2-PUSHED Mueller into spotlight
3-HID OIG-Horowitz in the shadows

When/if things start going bad, really bad for MSM/DNC
when lots of people start getting arrested

he's not around
2/
"DNC/MSM will blame Trump."

How, he's not in charge of the Mueller?
(BTW-Notice how he NEVER attacks Mueller)

Trump has no control over anything
because actually the guy BEING INVESTIGATED
and
TRUMP IS AN IDIOT

Right?
3/
"DNC/MSM will blame Mueller."

You mean Saint Bob Mueller?
No, he's untouchable now.

Let's also say LW aren't complete idiots...so they'll realize
Mueller was just a distraction

RM collected 40-50x of most anti-trumpers onto his team
so Horowitz could record all their stuff
Read 43 tweets
THREAD: Apropos of @GDouglasJones saying he plans to listen, here's a story about my most substantial (but still pretty limited) interaction with our new Senator-elect. /1 #alsen #AlabamaSenateElection
Birmingham Bar held panel a couple of years ago on impact of Shelby County v. Holder. Almost everybody on it is now on twitter: @JoyceWhiteVance, @edwardstill , yours truly, and -- who was it, oh right -- the guy who prosecuted the 16th Street Baptist bomber. /2
We all show up, and the crowd is kind of small, and @GDouglasJones says something like, "you know what? Y'all know more about this than I do. I'm just going to go into audience and listen." /3
Read 5 tweets
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FEELS: One year ago today, a humble google doc began transforming our democracy and the lives of millions of people, including my own. #OneIndivisible 1/
This time last year, I was in a pit of despair. As a brown skinned Indian woman immigrant-turned-citizen, the election results took a toll on me and I didn’t know what to do. All I knew is that I had to do something. 2/
Driven by equal parts fury and desperation, I read the Indivisible Guide, joined my local chapter @IndivisibleSF, and started fumbling down a path to find my way into participatory democracy. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Hello, Twitter! Congresswoman Terri Sewell here. I'll be taking over tweet duty for @TheDemocrats over the next little bit for some real talk on last night's big #ALSen win and the power of the #blackwomen vote! - @Sewell4Congress
I knew that black women could change the world long before the incredible headlines we're seeing today. My mom, a high school librarian with a master’s degree, became the first African-American woman elected to Selma’s City Council and served 11 years. - @Sewell4Congress
Decades later I sought office for the U.S. House and became the first black woman to ever serve in Alabama's Congressional delegation where I presently represent Selma, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and more. - @Sewell4Congress
Read 10 tweets
1/x Folks, a few thoughts on the extraordinary turnout among black voters in last night's #ALSEN special election and about how much greater it could have been.
2/x My client, Scott Douglas, wrote a brilliant op-ed about the problems with AL's discriminatory voter ID law in the NY Times yesterday: nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opi…
3/x Here are the numbers on the photo ID law:118,000 registered Alabama voters do not have a photo ID they can use to vote; Black and Latino voters are about twice as likely as white voters to not have ID.

Last night's #ALSEN election was decided by under 21,000 votes
Read 39 tweets
1. I want to start this thread by pointing out that I thought there was a sting at play with @MooreSenate way back when Allred first launched the smear campaign. Everyone knew the accusation was BS, but I suspected not only that, but this was the result of
2. a brilliant scheme on the part of the usual suspects on our side (Bannon, Trump, Flynn, Sessions) to catch the bad guys in corruption that normies will understand. Uranium One, Benghazi, classified emails on unsecured home server, etc. these are HUGE crimes that carry prison..
3. sentences, and long ones at that. They jeopardized national security in unthinkable ways, but still, they are a bit technical, especially Obama's crimes. When you have to use the word "unmasking" you lose 70% of people right there, but election rigging, now there is something
Read 14 tweets
From the primary to the runoff to the special election, this Roy Moore bidness has been more than interesting. Here is a recap of our editorial coverage. 1/10 #AlSen
The sex scandal, the open Senate seat, and the temptation of Luther Strange that started it all washex.am/2ixHYDy via @dcexaminer 2/10 #AlSen
Back when Alabama actually cared about sex scandals. Here’s how the ghost of the last governor haunted Luther Strange washingtonexaminer.com/article/2635418 via @dcexaminer 3/10 #AlSen
Read 11 tweets
I’m hearing that people are being turned away from this precinct in Dothan, AL because they are inactive on the rolls. Trying to find out more. #alsen
Dechauna Jiles says she and roughly six other people (who she saw) were told they were “inactive” voters and had to cast provisional ballots #alsen
“My parents grew up two streets over from the church that was bombed in Birmingham. I would be doing a disservice to my family [not to vote].” - Dechauna Jiles

“It’s not that we’re not showing up to vote. We’re being suppressed.”
Read 4 tweets
The child molester running for the U.S. Senate isn't the only weird thing going on in Alabama politics right now. Let's talk about some of that...

<thread>
Last Thursday, a lawsuit was filed in an Alabama circuit court on behalf of 3 voters (a Republican, a Democrat, & an Independent). They asked the court to order election officials to preserve electronic ballot images from the upcoming #ALSen race.

/1/
Alabama uses paper ballots...BUT the paper ballot is not actually what's counted.

Here's how it works: The paper ballot is scanned. A digital image is created. Then, that digital image is used to count your vote.

/2/

al.com/news/index.ssf…
Read 23 tweets
1/
@ThomasWictor has laid out a case for WEEKS that Judge Roy Moore is the victim of a carefully planned, coordinated hit job.

Democrats are THAT DESPERATE to hang onto power in the Senate. And now more people are realizing this.

@drawandstrike 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9392532…
1/
@ThomasWictor has laid out a case for WEEKS that Judge Roy Moore is the victim of a carefully planned, coordinated hit job.

Democrats are THAT DESPERATE to hang onto power in the Senate. And now more people are realizing this.

@drawandstrike 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9392532…
2/
I remember ANITA HILL even if a
bunch of Never Trump/Conservative GOPe
people suddenly developed a memory problem
over the past month.

@drawandstrike 👇
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9392532…
Read 23 tweets
Doug Jones for U.S. Senate
thread

Bakari Sellers bringing some truth:

Stop putting politics above "the moral fabric of our country"

Doug Jones
-Imprisoned Eric Rudolph
-Imprisoned the people who bombed the 16th St. Baptist Church.”

#DougJones #ALSEN #VoteDougDec12
Doug Jones for U.S. Senate

"Now I’m in the category firmly believing that Doug Jones can win this race”

"Doug Jones is in Alabama talking about hospitals... about jobs in the black belt...
Alabama’s gonna be a close race"

#VoteDougDec12
#DougJones #ALSEN #alpolitics #GOTV
Alabama's Senior Senator
Republican Richard Shelby

“I want to reiterate again:
"I didn’t vote for Roy Moore"
"I wouldn’t vote for Roy Moore"
"I think the Republican Party can do better.”

#VoteDougDec12
#DougJones
#Moore #ALSEN #alpolitics
cnn.it/2yWbH3H
Read 12 tweets
(1) The missing piece of the @MooreSenate yearbook story:

Gloria Allred was the attorney responsible for Roe v. Wade. This was her "life's work." This is her motivation. #ALSen #GloriaAllred #BeverlyYoungNelson #ForgedYearbook #ProLife #TheLeftIsEvil
(1b) Here's the link to the underlying article, if you're interested. The full caption wouldn't display in the preview, which is why I'm sending it along separately.

thenation.com/article/januar…
(2) Judge Moore is a strong committed Christian -- and a strong pro-life advocate.
Read 33 tweets
Roy Moore is now doing an interview with American Family Radio, another safe space for Moore as he continues running from reporters.
ROY MOORE ON AMERICAN FAMILY RADIO: What they’ve done to me is not only unforgivable. It’s just pure hatred & it’s pure spite & it’s pure evil and wrong. And they have made up stuff that I wouldn’t even consider doing. #ALSen
This American Family Radio host has made it clear in the first few minutes that he 100% does not believe the allegations against him. #ALSen
Read 12 tweets
THREAD: What's the deal with
🇺🇸absentee voting🇺🇸
in Alabama? Let us take you through the two easy steps (done at the same time in person.)

All info from: sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/…

#DougJonesforSenate #alsen 1/
ABSENTEE BALLOT ELIGIBILITY

You may vote absentee in Alabama for several reasons. Check out the list below to see if you're eligible.

#DougJonesforSenate #alsen 2/
BUSINESS EMERGENCY

Also, if you miss the deadline for absentee ballot voting, and you have a sudden business trip, you are still able to absentee vote up to the day before the election in Alabama.

#DougJonesforSenate #alsen 3/
Read 9 tweets
(1) The left is disgusting. Truly, abhorrently, disgusting. I get that you can't stand Christians or Christian values, or for that matter, any conservative from the South. But this is despicable. (H/T to @RealDailyWire for reporting this debacle.)

dailywire.com/news/24170/kim…
(2) "Moral Majority" @JimmyKimmelLive has crossed a line that I didn't even know existed: Sending a "comedian" to interrupt a church service to make a political point (and he still failed). Do these people truly not understand what they are doing?
(3) Kimmel and the left consider themselves virtuous because of a bunch of norms and morals that they themselves made up. But yet like a compass without a fixed north, their "values" are utterly useless, blowing them too and fro with every change in the wind of American culture.
Read 22 tweets
(1) Judge Moore is innocent. He did nothing wrong except to stand for Biblical truth and run against the Establishment. Consider the facts:
(2) There were five main "accusers": Four from the WaPo hit piece, and one represented by radical feminist sensationalist Gloria Allred.
(3) Of the four women from the WaPo article, only one even ALLEGED anything improper. The other three were smoke and mirrors.
Read 30 tweets
1) Thread -

Real Statistics on just how RED the State of Alabama is, a reminder of manipulated polling & why Roy Moore will WIN
2) The last time Alabama voted for a Democrat President was 1976-Jimmy Carter.

In 2016, Trump won AL by 28%, the widest margin of victory by a Republican President in AL since Nixon in 1972.

Romney won by 22% & McCain won by 21%

nytimes.com/elections/resu…
3) Since 1992, BOTH Alabama Senate seats have been held by Republicans. Sessions was elected to 4 terms. Margin of victory:
1996 by 7%
2002 by 19%
2008 by 26%
2014- Sessions ran UNOPPOSED! No Democrat challengers!

This is how RED Alabama is
Read 13 tweets
THREAD:

Fellow Democrats. We won big last night. Huge. It wasn’t close. It was a blowout.

Here’s what our next steps should be.
1/ This election taught us that one big thing matters: contest EVERY state and local seat. Even hard right ones. Because you’ll always win at least a few. If we do that in 2018, the House is ours.
2/ By that same token: a good ground game and a powerful message of resistance is needed. When we all work together to turn out the vote, great things happen.
Read 11 tweets
... has become very clear to me over the last couple of days from observing pockets of Conservative Inc. media and elsewhere we are....
... going to be up against NeverTrumpers and some semi-NeverTrumpers as much as Dems, in ensuring Roy Moore wins the #ALSen seat...
... and this is where
"some semi-NeverTrumpers"
... is important in terms of nuance. Most real conservatives who backed Cruz have...
Read 14 tweets
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