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modest proposal @modestproposal1
, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Can someone fact check this? I am skeptical, outside of perhaps energy investment, which was really a pre 2015 thing, that this is true.
For instance investment in single family housing as a percent of GDP is below prior recession troughs
Autos SAAR, while not a production number, is probably a decent proxy, is flat for 4+ years.
So corporate debt is way up, and household debt is down, and the Austrians found my mentions to tell me the whole economy is a sham
Aggregate net debt to ebitda for SPX is not concerning at all. But median leverage is definitely elevated, although still less than 2x.
It's interesting to look at leverage disaggregated by quintile. 20% of the SPX has net cash. Another 20% is less than 1x levered. The most levered 20% are towards the lower end of their historic range. The increase in median leverage is mostly among less levered companies.
PE backed companies have more debt than all small caps. So this is definitely more concerning.
NIPA profits are way up
But NIPA profit margins are only now recovering from the industrial recession of 15/16 , and still below peak
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