As we wait for the meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in Parliament on Tuesday, a couple of reminders about what to look out for on Monday and Tuesday. 1/
First, on Monday, the CJEU will rule on the (unilateral) revocability of A50. The Advocate General last week said that the A50 is unilaterally revocable. His Opinion is discussed here: 2/
Key things to watch for in the Court's ruling. Will it agree with the AG, or take a different course? If it agrees, will it do any more to spell out the circumstances in which a) revocation; and b) subsequent renotification; might be held to be abusive/lack good faith? 3/
This has the potential to affect the options facing the UK, and to make it clear what EU law limitations there are on the ability of the UK to revoke and retrigger the A50 notice. 4/
Next, on Tuesday, Parliament will vote on the WA. The Government is painting it as the best way forward, to deliver Brexit, and to minimise the negative effects on business. 5/
The WA has in many places been misrepresented. It involves a loss of control, the creation of new barriers to trade, and huge uncertainty. There is a full discussion here: legalresearch.blogs.bris.ac.uk/2018/11/why-th… 6/
It looks as though the Government is heading for defeat. If it is defeated, the UK has to plot an alternative path forward. If the WA is defeated, no deal is the default. 7/
Both Tories (who want to ensure that the backstop has finality) and Labour (who want to negotiate a better Brexit) are seeking to reopen negotiations. Every sign from the EU is that this will not be countenanced. 8/
The PD may (perhaps) be tweaked, pointing more clearly to the preferred future relationship (eg Norway plus). But the PD cannot, by force of will, become legally binding. 9/
That leaves a stark choice; between no deal, reviving the (tweaked?) deal, and (dependent on the CJEU decision) no Brexit. As things stand, none of these has majority support. Things are likely to shift quickly in the days ahead. 10/10
