Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #hardbrexit

Most recents (11)

We haven't seen the text (disclaimer) but nonetheless here is my pre-Christmas thread in reaction. This is a #hardBrexit deal (by design) and that means for food it is hardest of all. No rabbits out of the hat - the UK gov have followed through on their stated intent...1/
All food exports from the UK into EU will be subject to the same checks and inspections as EU imports from Russia, Chile, and yes.. Australia - this despite the fact that the UK rules will be 100% the same rules on safety, env, and animal welfare 2/…
So (eg) in 7 days all our meat, fish and dairy will require export health certs - gov estimate is 300k next year (industry thinks it will be more) that's 10x more than now (btw for most supply chains the EHC is just the last piece of paper) we have 2x as many vets to do this 3/
Read 10 tweets
I suspect this will be lost in #BrexitDeal coverage. While this isn't #NoDealBrexit, it is a #HardBrexit.

”This will be as hard a Brexit as anything but no deal, and much harder than might have been expected after the relatively narrow referendum result"…
The 'hard' and 'soft' terms seem to have gotten warped over the past 4 years (especially, I notice, in US media).

After 2016 referendum Theresa May had to choose: soft Brexit (Norway), semi-hard Brexit (Turkey), or hard Brexit (Morocco). She chose the latter, hoping for an FTA.
The #BrexitDeal leaves UK as the only Western European country outside the EU single market.

Listening to @BorisJohnson's presser, you'd be forgiven for thinking the UK was *joining* the EU rather than leaving - such was his focus on benefits of supposedly zero-tariff trade.
Read 4 tweets
Our event coorganised with @parlamentoUE has just started streaming on YouTube!

Our first speaker is @othmar_karas, Vice-President of the @Europarl_EN, who begins by highlighting that our new book "Euroscepticism and the Future of Europe: Views from the Capitals" is "a very important document for our democratic debate on the Europe union"

The book is edited by @_PaulSchmidt (our moderator this afternoon), @MichaelKaeding, and @JohannesPollak

Read 29 tweets
Who dominates the debate about #Brexit 🇪🇺 in the #UK 🇬🇧? 📢 In this new article in #PRX (@ecpr's new #OpenAccess journal) @hoennige, @dominic_nyhuis, @PhiMeyer, @SusumuShikano & I analyse visibility bias and mentions of MPs in reporting on #Brexit |… 1/7
Using automated text analysis of 58,247 newspaper articles published July 2017-March 2019, we find
1) #ConservativeParty MPs were strongly overrepresented in ALL (!) newspapers - irrespective of left/right or pro/anti-#Brexit position (71% of all MP mentions vs 48% of seats) 2/7
2) #ConservativeParty backbenchers who were part of pro-#Brexit pressure groups #LeaveMeansLeave or #EuropeanResearchGroup were overrepresented among Con backbenchers, yet the same was not true for backbench members of the anti-Brexit #PeoplesVote campaign 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Thread: @mrjamesob a friend heard on show this morning & that you were surprised British applications for a Ryanair cabin crew would be ruled out by the following requirement -
Applicants must have unrestricted right to live and work in the EU.…
@mrjamesob We had that as #EUcitizens.
#Brexit removed that right from us on Jan 31, but we do have right to live/work in Europe during transition while UK observes rules of single market. On Jan 1 2021, we lose that right. I wrote about this ages ago, see pinned tweet
@mrjamesob 'Freedom of movement' gave us right to live/work countries in single market, 30 in total.
(If you want to stay for over 3 months, you need to prove income or financial resources &
have health insurance cover). UK could have used those controls on immigration & did not.
Read 12 tweets
“In a dramatic shift Michael Gove, the minister responsible for no-deal preparations, said the government was “working on the assumption” that Brussels would not strike a fresh agreement.”…
“In a Whitehall revolution, Johnson will make every decision on Brexit policy with a team of just six senior ministers — all of them Brexiteers who support no deal.” 2
Hard to overstate the relief that clarity brings to politics, and how free people react to decisive action in pursuit of what they actually voted for. See also this @thetimes story:… 3
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[THREAD]🌏Find out our global outlook & central scenario for H2-19-2020: uncertainties surrounding global economic dynamics will weigh on overall growth #Outlook #tradewar #Brexit
🔎Our scenario is based on the strong assumption of a UK exit from the EU without a withdrawal agreement #Brexit #HardBrexit🇬🇧🇪🇺
Mainly, expectations are:
🔻a recession in the #UK and a slowdown of #growth in the euro zone
🔻3 #Fed rate cuts of 25 bps in July, September & December 2019
🔻a cut in the deposit rate by the #ECB by 10bps in September 2019
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🇪🇺🗳️ Quelques commentaires sur les résultats de ces élections européennes en France et dans les grands pays européens. #EUelections2019
🇪🇺🗳️🇫🇷 On commence par la France. Le @RNational_off en tête, c’est évidemment un succès pour #LePen qui, parallèlement à #Macron, avait installé ce duel dans les médias mais aussi dans l’opinion.
🇪🇺🗳️🇫🇷 Le RN a bénéficié de la très grande solidité de son électorat : 78% des électeurs de @MLP_officiel au premier tour de la présidentielle de 2017 ont voté pour la liste @RNational_off.
Read 43 tweets
Farmers face the biggest Brexit hit and still they don’t think they need to worry! THREAD
In a grim report published on Friday, the #government Agricultural, Horticultural and Development Board @TheAHDB predicted that post-Brexit #farming incomes would fall by 25%. @FarmingUK /1
This wasn’t just in an apocalyptic #NoDeal scenario. If it was, farmers seeing this figure could mutter Project Fear and carry on their arduous work. The problem is that this collapse occurs IN ANY BREXIT SCENARIO @bbcfarmingtoday. /2
It is no exaggeration that entire enterprises, for example poultry production, could be unviable if the AHDB predictions are correct as @RCorbettMEP notes. This is a problem because, in Shropshire @BBCShropshire poultry accounts for 86% of all cattle and livestock. /3
Read 21 tweets
#ABTVtoStopBrexit isn't about affecting the balance of power or forcing a General Election. #ABTV is about sending a message to the Tories, and *especially* to Labour that people don't support *any* #Brexit. Not a #HardBrexit, #SoftBrexit, #NoDealBrexit, #Lexit, or *any* Brexit.
The Tory's control more than half of councils, nearly double Labour. Losing control of even half of them is unrealistic, and even if it happened under fixed term government I can all but guarantee it won't result in a General Election.
A Prime Minister calls a GE under two circumstances:
1) They are miles ahead in the polls and think they can increase their majority (as in 2017)
2) They have suffered a humiliating defeat or scandal.
Read 24 tweets
1/ I am, and always will be a remainer, a passionate Eurofile who believes we should never have left the EU. However, over the past nine months I have concluded that our best way forward is to leave, and to join EFTA and stay in the EEA.
2/ This is correctly known as the EFTA/EEA option, or sometimes more loosely as the Norway Model.
3/ More information about EFTA/EEA is available from @LeaveHQ, @EFTA4UK, @Petenorth303 and at
Read 25 tweets

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