How the internal polling of Stronger In went wrong in 2016 was its turnout assumptions. Leave voters came out to vote in hugely greater numbers than had been anticipated.
We also know that Leave voters didn't turn out in such great numbers in 2017 - they began to revert to norm - and that is one of the reasons the Tories underperformed relative to expectations.
This makes it important to understand who would come out to vote in a putative second referendum. Would Leave voters turn out in force again?
I wonder whether some Leave voters may ask themselves whether this is really what they want? Might they, in a rather English way, just stay at home?
Ditto Remain voters. Might there be less complacency than in June 2016? Might they come out in force?
If the answers to some of those questions are 'yes' then the polling might be materially understating the strength of the Remain vote in a putative second referendum.
If the answers to some of those questions are 'yes' then the polling might be materially understating the strength of the Remain vote in a putative second referendum.
I wonder whether pollsters are really thinking about these questions? What are their baseline assumptions for turnout based on? As I understand it, a number just don't have any embedded assumptions in relation to turnout.
