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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
For those who think negotiating with the EU that is the main problem, and future Free Trade Agreements will be straightforward, this searing response from the Scottish Government should put you right.. gov.scot/publications/t…
Current arrangements for consultation with Scotland (and everyone else) are correctly described as 'inadequate'
Unclear why Australia and New Zealand have been prioritised...
Also not clear why CPTPP has been prioritised, and concern about impact on EU trade relations...
This is going to be the argument about future trading relations - EU versus the rest...
and of course a trade deal with the US will raise concerns...
And there's a lot more detail where those clips came from. In fact, this is exactly the sort of document we should have seen - but haven't - from the UK government... /ends
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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets
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Meanwhile here are the "30 truths about leaving on WTO terms". globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl… I make it that 7 are true, 8 partly true.
Here's the fact checking for claims 1-13...
14-30. Statements about the future are inherently debatable, so you simply can't say "there will be no roaming charges" is a fact. It is a possibility.
Read 3 tweets
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Hopeless. One of the EU's perennial complaints about Brexit negotiations is that they've been expected to play the role of both sides as the UK side has never really known what we wanted. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
The EU will probably be able to make minor changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and perhaps more significant ones to the Political Declaration, but they expect these to be the final ones to get a deal over the line in Parliament. The PM doesn't know what these are.
There is no way the EU will agree to this, any negotiating partner will agree to this, and the very fact the PM is floating the idea will have Brussels in continuing disbelief at the PM's lack of understanding of negotiations. thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Read 3 tweets

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Right, here we go. Please fasten seat-belts and make sure your trays are stowed in an upright position, and prepare for rebuttal of the @peoplesvote_uk "dodgy dossier" (this may be a long one....... there is a lot to rebut). You may wish to take tea and come back in an hour.
Essentially the #PVdodgyDossier repeats a few easy-to-discredit old anti-EEA myths, with a smattering of deeper research meant to be authoritative yet isn't. Shame as the author @jonlis1 is a solid researcher let-down by not knowing the law & having his work "edited" by PV.
I have covered two of the myths ("rule taker" and "continuing contributions") in this article. reaction.life/eea-efta-can-f… This is probably as good a place to start as any to understand why the #PVdodgyDossier is so unreliable.
Read 103 tweets
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Trade with the EU is just under half our international trade. Leavers hold up that statistic to claim it means there’s more opportunity for trade with the rest of the world than the EU. But the important stat is how much of our trade is covered by free trade agreements: 60%.
(48% with the EU, 12% with non-EU countries via our EU membership.)

What that means is that, if we fail to come to terms on a new trade deal with the EU (which negotiates as a block) there’s a gaping 48% of our trade that suddenly falls outside free trade deals. That’s massive.
Even if every non-EU country we have trade deals via the EU with agrees to new bilateral deals, that’s only 12% ie 1/5th of the way towards replicating the status quo.

Opposite scenario is survivable: EU deal, but no non-EU rollover. But no EU free trade is economic apocalypse.
Read 4 tweets
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We are stuck. The risk of 'no deal' Brexit is greater than ever. Is it time to consider a compromise, and opt for a Norway-style Brexit? My latest, from Oslo - also in today's paper:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, cards on the table: no it doesn't satisfy everyone. Yes it requires backstop/custom union. And yes it's far from ideal. Now that's out of the way...
(Also, this is going to be a long 'un because this was a fascinating assignment. Though I'm not giving it all away. Get a subscription for that, you barbarians)
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND BREXIT (thread):

Membership of the EU Customs Union prevents countries from agreeing their own trade agreements. Instead, the EU negotiates trade agreements on behalf of its member countries, which must be ratified by each state. /1
If the UK leaves the Customs Union, it will be free to negotiate its own trade agreements.

A number of studies have estimated the gains from trade agreements with third countries. The expected effects are small relative to the fall in trade from leaving the EU. /2
The Government analysis leaked by @BuzzFeedUK predicts that a new trade deal with USA would add 0.2% to long run GDP compared with a Brexit cost to GDP of up to 8%.

A @CEP_LSE paper by @swatdhingraLSE @johnvanreenen & co-authors finds similar results cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/… /3
Read 10 tweets

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