Trade with the EU is just under half our international trade. Leavers hold up that statistic to claim it means there’s more opportunity for trade with the rest of the world than the EU. But the important stat is how much of our trade is covered by free trade agreements: 60%.
(48% with the EU, 12% with non-EU countries via our EU membership.)
What that means is that, if we fail to come to terms on a new trade deal with the EU (which negotiates as a block) there’s a gaping 48% of our trade that suddenly falls outside free trade deals. That’s massive.
What that means is that, if we fail to come to terms on a new trade deal with the EU (which negotiates as a block) there’s a gaping 48% of our trade that suddenly falls outside free trade deals. That’s massive.
Even if every non-EU country we have trade deals via the EU with agrees to new bilateral deals, that’s only 12% ie 1/5th of the way towards replicating the status quo.
Opposite scenario is survivable: EU deal, but no non-EU rollover. But no EU free trade is economic apocalypse.
Opposite scenario is survivable: EU deal, but no non-EU rollover. But no EU free trade is economic apocalypse.
The Government, and especially hardcore Brexiteers throwing stones from the sidelines, need to wake up and acknowledge that, rather than keep on throwing insults the EU’s way, and treating our negotiation counterparts as idiots.
