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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Hopeless. One of the EU's perennial complaints about Brexit negotiations is that they've been expected to play the role of both sides as the UK side has never really known what we wanted. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
The EU will probably be able to make minor changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and perhaps more significant ones to the Political Declaration, but they expect these to be the final ones to get a deal over the line in Parliament. The PM doesn't know what these are.
There is no way the EU will agree to this, any negotiating partner will agree to this, and the very fact the PM is floating the idea will have Brussels in continuing disbelief at the PM's lack of understanding of negotiations. thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Really sorry of you aren’t interested in Brexit but, well me, my friends and family have to live it and things are getting pretty fluid right now, so I wanted to pull some facts together about Facebook and the referendum that are worth bearing in mind. Thread! 👇
People like @Anna_Soubry and @ChukaUmunna have been making a good case for @peoplesvote_uk based on the idea that in the original ref people didn’t know what kind of Brexit they were voting for. This makes sense because some people voted leave expecting to stay in SM etc 1/
The problem is the counter argument is also good. The mandate granted to the ref was to decide whether we stayed or left and everyone involved was clear about that at the time. To those with a sense of proportion this isn’t convincing but Brexiteers are people of principle 2/
Read 29 tweets
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A little thread on MY personal Brexit "Dividend" 👇👇

I have been waiting patiently & with barely baited breath for someone.. anyone to provide a single benefit to me & mine of #Brexit..
The question has been asked of many MPs & talking heads on both sides of the debate…❓
1/
And…. Not a scrap, not a trace, not a single little whisper of how I, & people like me, will be “better off” due to UK leaving EU SM and CU.. 🤔

And I don’t just mean financially before anyone comes at me brandishing a hair shirt & self-flagellating.. 🔨🔨
2/
"Sovrinty"? It's just a word & will always be “relative”..…
Control of our own money, borders & laws?… we already had all that..👍
So, whilst I waited, I scraped my personal barrel and came up with a single little splinter of a #Brexit Bonanza …🤨

Drum Roll ..🥁🥁🥁
3/
Read 9 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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As the UK pores over the government's no-deal notices, let's have a look at how all of this is seen on the EU side.

Running thread (👇) on reactions & commentary from EU media, industry groups, politicians, etc.
German centre-left @SZ sees today's no-deal publications as partly “a threat to make the EU accommodate London in the [Brexit] negotiations.”

Writes that Theresa May uses "fear as a weapon", also against opponents within her own party.
zeit.de/wirtschaft/201…
Also Austrian daily @derStandardat writes that the UK government “has recognised that such a [no-deal] scenario can help her to exert pressure on the EU.”

Goes on to warn that “much would become more difficult for EU citizens” under a no-deal scenario. derstandard.at/2000085912487/…
Read 11 tweets
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This week I wrote 2,000 words explaining why the EU will "shoot down" May's 'third way'...

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

And this morning a column on why they shouldn't do it. /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
We keep saying both sides needs to find a space between Canada Dry and Norway plus, but at risk of stating the obvious, that is easier said than done.

Hard battle lines are being drawn up in the Commission. Exasperation levels are reaching danger levels. /2
But the EU has choices to make too, and frankly shooting holes in the British cabinet at the moment is fish-in-a-barrel stuff.

The EU has legitimate concerns on cherry-picking and level-playing field issues, but these can be addressed. /3
Read 15 tweets
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1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago.
2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....
3/ Basic #Brexit idea was to convince EU that with a bit of compromise & British payments UK cld leave single mkt but retain full access to it while it worked out its future. Indeed many sensible Leavers didnt want radical change overnight..however there was one small problem....
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#underreported #border #EUWithdrawalBill #timefortruths #HarryLeslieSmith #Yakovenko #Trump #nodealbrexit #GE2017 #NI #brexit #AlexanderNix #3b #TheresaMay #Brexit #Marr #CambridgeAnalytics #xenophobia #Cyprus #stopbrexit #TrumpTower #Labour #4a #3a #Tories

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