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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
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With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets

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1/ What can MPs do to stop a Hard Brexit?
2/ Parliamentary procedure isn't really our area (yet) but we are sure there are several actions that MPs and Peers could do to support a sensible EFTA-based solution for the UK 🇳🇴🇮🇸🇬🇧🇱🇮🇨🇭#brexit #efta
3/ such as set up an All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) relating to efta. As far as we know there are APPGs on Switzerland, Iceland etc but not one on EFTA.
Read 9 tweets
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The #Brexit tunnellers are tunnelling in pursuit of that elusive crock of gold - a deal.

What are they trying to finesse? How are they trying to close a deal? Here's what I know after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
As we all know, "it's the backstop, stupid" that is the problem.

But more specifically, how long the backstop lasts, and whether the UK can ever leave it.

This is the crux of the matter. /2
Last week was a big step forward, with the EU tentatively agreeing to write an all-UK customs arrangement *into* the Withdrawal Agreement.

So not a promise to do this in the future, but an operable text that requires no subsequent additions to function. /3
Read 16 tweets
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#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
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1. For the benefit of the hard of thinking and for possibly the billionth time, there is only ONE way to ensure the UK maintains its current trade with the EU and that is by joining Efta and retaining the EEA agreement. (#Brexit thread)
2.There are means to ensure the bare minimum essentials continue but the EU is a major market actually on our doorstep so there is no way we should even be considering options that only maintain the bare minimum. The UK as a matter of fact needs a fully comprehensive relationship
3. As pointed out by the European Commission, a customs union covers only those functions listed in red and is not EVEN required to address those issues. The majority of border concerns are regulatory issues covered by the EEA.
Read 10 tweets
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#brexit is a belief, a religion. There's no evidence to support it. It is just a blinkered faith. They believe what they want to believe. Their leaders are preachers, not politicians, & their reaction to doubting them is that of nothing less than a religious fundamentalist #FBPE
2. As such many will quite literally do this for some kind of reward in the next life or for a "cause" for their fellow followers. And when you read the words of some of their protagonists that is exactly what one sees.
3. And we must ask how it is possible so many have been converted to this religious extremism. In general it will the same as elsewhere, hardship, poverty, hate, a conditioned mind that is made to believe a specific group is the cause of their troubles.
Read 6 tweets
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#BREAKING Trump’s lead lawyer is out. John Dowd Resigns in Special Counsel Probe. This comes days after Fox News conspiracy theorist Joe diGenova joined legal team. (Dershowitz would complete the TV team, no?) nyti.ms/2GebgG9 #Mueller #RussiaInvestigation #TrumpRussia
Seems clear where Trump's now headed. He hired diGenova to FoxNewsify his defense. It may work on those already awash in toxic Fox propaganda. But it won't work on Mueller. He'll have to be fired+/Trumpists will manufacture some crisis to end Russia probe. WHERE RU GOP CONGRESS??
UGH John Bolton was seen at the WH today. Is another Fox News blowhard propagandist about to get hired by Trump…to replace McMaster as National Security Adviser?? @ColinKahl is right. We're all gonna die.

What is GOP Congress waiting for? Are they complicit w/ Russia too??
Read 13 tweets

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