We are stuck. The risk of 'no deal' Brexit is greater than ever. Is it time to consider a compromise, and opt for a Norway-style Brexit? My latest, from Oslo - also in today's paper:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, cards on the table: no it doesn't satisfy everyone. Yes it requires backstop/custom union. And yes it's far from ideal. Now that's out of the way...
(Also, this is going to be a long 'un because this was a fascinating assignment. Though I'm not giving it all away. Get a subscription for that, you barbarians)
Norway's vote on whether to join the EU mirrored Brexit ref: 52 No, 48 Yes. So they decided on a "national compromise" - join the EEA. Now, May has talked a lot about compromise lately. And EEA being put forward across spectrum by @NickBoles @SKinnock and others
Much has been said about this option and how it makes Norway a "vassal state." What do Norwegians actually think? Well, this is where it gets interesting. For the most part, they are very happy. Norway has free access to single market, and economy has thrived thanks to that.
Key Norwegian industries are ring-fenced from EU meddling (fishing). And Norway's not in the customs union so they can strike trade deals, though it's tricky as they must keep EU rules. Iceland has an FTA with China, for example.
Here's the thing - Norwegian businesses don't want to do FTAs with America anyway. One Norwegian business chief: “We want to keep the EU’s high standards, not lower them for free trade agreements [FTAs], which means it would not be possible for us to have an FTA with America."
But is Norway a ruletaker? Industry leaders say "no!" as rules can be influenced at very early stage. In practice, however, Norway swallows all the rules. They can refuse to adopt them if they wish, but it comes at heavy cost - they lose access to affected market sectors
Norwegian MPs tell me they'd never dare refusing an EU directive as the cost just doesn't outweigh the benefits.
The No to the EU campaign in Norway strongly disagrees. Describes EEA as a "salami slicer" of sovereignty. As one campaigner said: “A single piece doesn’t feel so bad. But if you give away all the pieces you might as well be in the EU.” Another: "Completely undemocratic."
As for the other problems. First: free movement is a requirement. Seems the UK's attitude to immigration is just too toxic right now for this. Unlike Norway (population 5.2m) where EU migration is perceived as a good thing.
Ex-foreign minister: "There is no particular antipathy towards Poles and Lithuanians. It’s the effect they have on the labour market, not their physical presence, that Norwegians might take a stand against."
Norway concerned about non-EU migration but it has a decent grasp already on controlling EU side. Why? Because it rigidly enforces the EU's rules on free movement of labour.
As @Femi_Sorry and others point out, movement is only "free" for people who can find a job within three months and can financially support themselves. Norway enforces this v strictly. The UK struggled to do this even as an EU member.
Brexit voters are also angry about losing jobs to EU workers, or seeing their hours, wages or working standards lowered. Norway has high minimum wages and tough anti-social dumping measures to combat this as well.
Caveat: Norway is a very small country of just 5m people. It's no utopia, but huge natural resources and smaller scale makes this Nordic standard of living more feasible than if UK attempted it.
Another big question: Do EEA members actually want us to join? What I'm told after a week in Oslo is a resounding No.
Norwegian Government publicly suggests it's open to the idea, but privately sources say it's very, very reluctant to let Britain join the EEA. This is partly because Norway is the big cheese in the group. No more if Brexit Britain joins the fold.
Also fears abound that Britain would seek to "hijack" the EEA and turn it into an anti-EU vehicle. "Letting the Boris bull run around the EEA china shop" as one expert put it.
So Norway is a bit like that friend who says you can come to the party but, oh, you know, it won't be much fun, just a few friends hanging out, you won't miss anything (please don't come....)
So Norway has a lot to offer the UK, but it falls flat in two keys areas - sovereignty and free movement. Even so, Norwegians would argue that both can be managed effectively within EEA. /ends/
WAIT , not the end - I forgot to add, but it goes without saying: huge EU budget payments apply for this option. Totally unacceptable to Brexiteers
Slight clarification here: If the UK adopted a model similar to Norway, it would require add-ons to satisfy EU, namely customs union/backstop. Norway not in the CU and obviously doesn't have a backstop
