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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
IT ISN'T A BACKSTOP IF WE CAN LEAVE IT UNILATERALLY OR IS TIME LIMITED.
In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
"Does the Prime Minister believe that the EU will change their negotiating position of over 12 months because she has decided she can't get a deal through a vote tomorrow? Given the EU's position has been known for over 12 months could she outline the Plan B she must have?"
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets
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Meanwhile here are the "30 truths about leaving on WTO terms". globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl… I make it that 7 are true, 8 partly true.
Here's the fact checking for claims 1-13...
14-30. Statements about the future are inherently debatable, so you simply can't say "there will be no roaming charges" is a fact. It is a possibility.
Read 3 tweets
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Hopeless. One of the EU's perennial complaints about Brexit negotiations is that they've been expected to play the role of both sides as the UK side has never really known what we wanted. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
The EU will probably be able to make minor changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and perhaps more significant ones to the Political Declaration, but they expect these to be the final ones to get a deal over the line in Parliament. The PM doesn't know what these are.
There is no way the EU will agree to this, any negotiating partner will agree to this, and the very fact the PM is floating the idea will have Brussels in continuing disbelief at the PM's lack of understanding of negotiations. thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Read 3 tweets

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The root of the current Brexit negotiations impasse is this. In the Dec-2017 agreement the EU accepted that even in a backstop scenario, Northern Ireland would not have different customs & regulatory procedures from the UK. Then in Feb-2018 it reneged on that. As simple as that.
Mem:"In the absence of agreed solutions, the *United Kingdom* will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
Let's spell this out. In Dec-2017 the EU agreed to a backstop of the UK maintaining alignment of certain rules with the EU. Now (since Feb-2018, in fact) the EU's reneged on that & says a UK backstop is unacceptable & there must be a Northern Ireland only backstop instead/as well
Read 6 tweets
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Irish foreign minister @simoncoveney says the UK had made "commitments in writing" that there be a backstop to avoid a hard border, and that that backstop could not be time limited.
Speaking in Luxembourg Coveney said the UK made commitments “in writing” both in last December and in March that there would be a backstop in place, “unless and until” another solution appeared to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
“Those commitments have been made in writing by the British government, and what we’re saying is we want no more and no less than the follow through of those commitments. That’s what needs to happen.”
Read 9 tweets
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As the domestic UK political debate on Brexit grapples with the 'backstop' issue, it is worth recalling key statements adopted during the negotiations to date.

These may be ignored in the domestic debate, but are essential reference points for the EU and its negotiators.

1/
UK-EU Joint Report (08.12.2017), especially:

Para 49: 'In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will

Para 50: In the absence of agreed solutions ...

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

2/
Draft Withdrawal Agreement (WA) (19.03.18)

"negotiators agree that a legally operative version of the “backstop” solution for the border... in line with [para] 49 of the Joint Report, should be agreed as part of the [WA], to apply unless and until another solution is found”

3/
Read 12 tweets
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It's August, & time for a proper #BrexitBreak.

Before I disappear, a few key reminders of the staggering route to summer which Britain's political life has taken this year.

Warning. You might get dizzy, & feel slightly sick.

Thread/1
2. It started with a draft Agreement back in Dec 2018, where everyone was backslapping at their own Brexit brilliance.

Memories can be short, so remember Britain agreed to pay a financial settlement in recognition of its obligations & liabilities.

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
3. You may also recall the no hard border promise:-
"In the absence of agreed solutions, the UK will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market/Customs Union which, now or in the future, support N-S cooperation, the all island economy & the...1998 Agreement."
Read 27 tweets
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Seems to me that the Government looks like it's going to call the EU's bluff over the Irish backstop. They're right to do so. Few quick thoughts 👇
1) The backstop agreed back in December is an odd beast. It obviously only comes into effect when the UK leaves the EU and in the absence of wider agreed solutions - ie a future partnership deal. So it applies to the UK as a 3rd country without a "deal".
2) The commitment is to "full alignment" with "those rules of the Internal Market & the Customs Union" which now or in future supports North-South cooperation, all-island economy & Belfast Agreement
Read 11 tweets
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Wow. Did May really agreed to maintain regulatory alignment with single market and customs union *for the whole UK* if absence of “agreed solutions”?! If so, an embarrassing concession & she’s on borrowed time.
Not just regulatory alignment but “full” regulatory alignment! With no apparent time limit! Either U.K. trying to be too clever by half with wordplay of alignment or they’ve made major major strategic blunder.
The only way that holds is in a Norway style arrangement. In fact, Norway+, as Norway not in the customs union...
Read 5 tweets

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