While we kick up our heels, waiting for stuff to come out of the Tunnel, here's a thought or two on the basic dynamic of Art.50:
The underlying issue in this negotiation has been that the party who triggered it - the UK - did so without a firm plan and strategic intention in place, and has continued to fail to create such a plan or intention
To be more precise, there was a decision in #EUref to leave the EU, but no consensus about why that decision was taken
Now that the #c4brexit show's over, time for some background charts focusing on trends in different areas (1/n)
As you might expect, there's a strong association between 2016 vote and how LAs would vote now (2/n)
Switches away from Leave are:
- more pronounced in areas that started out Leavier;
- more pronounced in areas that voted UKIP in the 2014 EP elections;
Switches away from Leave are:
- less pronounced in areas which voted Cons. in the 2014 EP elections
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
#NoDealBrexit is disastrous, but the UK is woefully unprepared for the massive changes to ensue with any kind of #Brexit: the Tories have treated the Brexit negotiations as a game in which they held all the cards, & in consequence have failed utterly to make any progress. /3
2. I will have my 5 eligible years on the 14/04/2019.
Or 16 days after #BrexitDay.
Maybe it is worth to mention that I arrived on the 01/12/2013. So I have actually my 5 years, but I have no proof.
I was joining an ex-partner to look for work in the UK, my name was not on bills.
3. Yesterday, like other fellow @The3Million, I read the following article.
"Employers will be expected to check whether EU nationals have the right to work in the UK if there is a #NoDeal#Brexit, even though it will be almost impossible to assess this". theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
“The govt insisted on holding a referendum for stupid reasons”: Ken Clarke MP holding forth on Brexit at #IBARome
“Hardly any mainstream politician makes the case for immigration; British society has hugely benefited from it.”
Ken Clarke on the anti-immigration fearmongering & #fakenews in Brexit campaign: Just as Farage campaigned with ‘brown people’ on his posters, so they used Turkey, 70m Turks would come to the UK to take jobs etc.
Mainstream politicians ran the Turkey issue - eg Michael Gove.
“Anybody who tells you they know what will happen in British politics is deceiving themselves. We are in the middle of a mad, anarchic situation as every other western democracy.” Ken Clarke when asked what he thinks will happen on Brexit negs.
Hi, @SteveBakerHW. You’re in the news demanding a Hard #Brexit. Your briefing before the #EUref considers EFTA/EEA acceptable Brexit outcomes with “advantages and disadvantages” and WTO the “worst case scenario”. Can you explain why you now claim this isn’t “proper #Brexit”? Ta.
And while you’re at it, can you explain your thinking on the democratic implications of securing a referendum mandate on one basis and then reinterpreting it after the vote to mean something much narrower and very different? I look forward to your response. Thanks @SteveBakerHW.
@JasonJHunter - "This happens every day in international trade, the fact that you don't know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours..... @isaby -
For those unaware of Matthew Elliott's groom-of-the-stool, here's Jonathan Isaby "defending" his then deputy at BrexitCentral & #VoteLeave patsy, Darren Grimes, before Grimes was found to have broken electoral law by the @ElectoralCommUK in the #EURef:
@TomTugendhat@Andrew_Adonis Let's look at the facts: 1. The Ref MPs voted for was advisory 2. Cameron then made it binding in the minds of voters who don't understand the niceties of our constitution, which was shabby & underhand of him, because he created a political imperative to take the Ref advice
@TomTugendhat@Andrew_Adonis 3. Parliament never formally made the decision to leave, but gave Mrs May the power to trigger #Article50 through the shameful A50 Bill (launched before its rubbish White Paper was released), which converted Parliament into an irrelevant rubber stamp in the #Brexit process.
@TomTugendhat@Andrew_Adonis 4. Under pressure from the Economic Ruin Group (ERG), Mrs May triggered A50 prematurely, without impact assessments and, crucially, without agreement in her party as to what form #Brexit should take, let alone a plan.
Random #Brexit thread by middle-aged, white, Northern, working-class guy...
1. Before #EURef I knew little about EU. Decades of negative UK media had made me a bit sceptical. But I was not really “political”.
2. Got a Polish partner. Been together 18 years. Long before #EURef she’d started getting snarky comments from folks about being “over here” & “going home” etc. This got steadily worse & was kinda shocking.
@CommonsCMS@BrexitCentral It appeared alongside the text: "Being under EU rule is severely restricting our ability to grow and reach our full potential as a great nation. It is time we take a stand for Britain...
1. Cabinet minister accused of not telling truth by NAO, authorities to say Vote Leave broke law in #euref, Cabinet squabbling over eu plans they haven’t all even seen yet and eu likely to reject, brexiteer MPs summoned to see chief whip - just another day in 2018 -oh, and #pmqs
2. Anyone else ready for the holidays?
3. If it’s the kind of thing that floats your boat, apparently ERG MPs summoned the chief whip not the other way round -
Tax-paying EU citizens in UK:
1 Denied vote over their own future in #EURef
2 Told "nothing would change" in case of #Brexit
3 Dubbed "bargaining chips" by UK Govt
4 Been left "in limbo" for 2 years
5 Forced to pay a fee just to be allowed to get on with their lives #shameful
And on top of that, EU citizens have been publicly abused in a sustained tabloid hate campaign; some have been victims of hate crimes; and, overall, their plight has been largley ignored by UK TV news, incl. @BBCNews & @Channel4News ...
... These "EU citizens" are our friends, neighbours, colleagues, partners, spouses, girlfriends, boyfriends & family members. And for the last 40+ years, British people have been EU citizens too ...