Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #euref

Most recents (24)

Let's consider how today has gone for what we'll now have to call the Windsor Framework

tl;dr about as well as could be hoped for, maybe better
Run-in over past weeks was distinctly hazy - no grass-rolling, no consultation, mixed signals about how much was actually settled

However, did also draw some of the sting today, given text came with no major surprises
Confusion of mixing in VdL's trip to visit King didn't help, although I think it was really a curtesy thing rather than a sell (Windsor branding didn't hurt for selling to Unionists though)
Read 12 tweets
Let's run through Johnson's reflections on Brexit and how he 'got it done'

'Doing it' seems to refer primarily to achieving withdrawal from EU

TCA is mentioned, albeit gliding over all the things it stops in cooperation

The rest is about 'the opportunities'

Those are:
- FTAs (which have almost all just been replacing ones that existed while EU members);
- freeports (which could have been done inside EU);
- agri/fish reforms (fair enough);
- immigration changes

Read 7 tweets
The DUP have published a document about the NIP, so let's have a dip in, shall we?…

The document is mostly a list of problems, starting off with this one

The mention of 'the courts' should remind us that none of the legal challenges have found the Protocol in contravention of UK laws, most recently in the Court of Appeal…

Read 12 tweets
A quick run-through on our new @UACES @UKandEU report on "The state of the EU"

On this 6th anniversary of #EURef, @anandMenon1 and I thought it'd be good to reflect on the EU side of things, especially in light of the invasion of Ukraine

Our authors point up the wide-ranging impacts of that war, in addition to the other challenges facing the EU

As you'll see from our contents page, we've covered a huge range of topics, bringing experts from across the Continent to the discussion

Read 33 tweets
Quick thoughts on possible impact of a new Tory leader on Brexit policy

tl;dr probably minimal, but some risks still exist

Just as any post-Johnson leader will not want to be defined by Covid, so they are even less likely to return to Brexit as a hot topic: it's of the past, doesn't switch on many voters and risks inflaming backbench

So you'd imagine that route one would be quiet diplomacy, not too dissimilar from current position: speak firmly, but don't upset the apple cart (or trigger Art.16) and hope it settles down

Read 8 tweets
@Pete20905557 @DavidHadley1973 @UKIP Achieving my political goal of extracting the UK from the EU is all the victory I (or Nigel Farage and all our comrades-against the EU) need.

But let me give TEN good reasons:

(in no particular order, but)

1. Being so successful it has pissed you off so much you are our Troll
@Pete20905557 @DavidHadley1973 @UKIP 2. British Laws for British People. Those who make our laws should be those elected by the people they represent – and not unelected EU Commissioners and bureaucrats.
@Pete20905557 @DavidHadley1973 @UKIP 3. EU pushed up your fuel bills with the most expensive energy policy in the world, pushed up food bills with its Common Agricultural Policy, increases the cost of goods with rules restricting us from buying products from outside the EU, plus extra EU costs adds to your taxes.
Read 21 tweets
Thought I'd check how much COM Presidents have actually talked about Brexit in #SOTEU, following VdL's complete silence yesterday

Yes, this is the first #SOTEU that has unambiguously avoided the topic since 2013 (note, no speeches in 2014 or 2019), but 2016 also made no direct reference (although certainly can read entire content that year as repost to #EURef)

2015 was easily the longest absolute text, reaffirming value of UK membership
2017 was very passing
2018 & 20 were about need to conclude negotiations

Read 5 tweets
A good day to consider when Brexit might be 'done'

Today marks the nearly conclusion of the EU's ratification of the Trade & Cooperation Agreement

There needs to be an exchange of letters tomorrow, so the treaty can enter fully into force on Saturday, 1 May

So, done. right?

Not so much

At the risk of repeating myself, 'Brexit' contains a number of different elements

Longer version with graphics:

Read 11 tweets
The morning after the dinner before

If you'd like a very simple take-away of why this has gone belly-up (and bellies were much in focus last night), then focus on trust

1/ Image
The root cause of the major problems in these negotiations has been that neither side trusts the other all that much

The UK political debate has long been coloured by the suspicion that there is some nefarious agenda behind European integration, aided by a more general distrust of grand visions

Read 11 tweets
Your regular reminder that Brexit is going badly because the UK has still to decide what the purpose of leaving the EU is

#EUref came about as piece of party mgt by Cameron, rather than as culmination of considered and structured debate about UK's place in the world

Yes, we talked a lot (A LOT) about 'Europe' and the EU, but primarily as a function of lots of other things

A touchstone of dissent, if you will (h/t @PaulAdamTaggart)

Read 15 tweets
The #GeorgeFloydMurder is the latest in a long history of #racist atrocities visited on Black people & minorities in the US & elsewhere.

If u are in some position of authority, power, privilege & have a public platform you need to speak up and be counted. A v personal #thread
I am brown of Indian origin, but when asked, I always say I don't really know what #racism looks like, I have almost never experienced it, and I am in a position of power and privilege so I don't think its appropriate for me to speak about it. But today, I write about it here ...
I grew up in India, when to the @LSEnews & took a investment banking job at #Lehman. When I flew back to #India, I went to the UK embassy in Delhi to get my work visa. That was my first #racist encounter. He barked at me, said he could turn me down coz "too many of us in the UK"
Read 43 tweets
@DPJHodges Just read your piece.

Difficult to cut thru all YOUR hate, scorn & vitriol, but I discern the kernel of an idea — that people want to be respected & *feel* Remainers don't.

That's actually a fair point, but don't you think you'd convey it better if you didn't hate-coat it?
@DPJHodges Is it actually *true* Remainers don't respect Leavers, or is it just folk like you putting that narrative out there?

a) you prime your readers' reaction by starting with the word *bitter* & using a string of pejoratives (As BITTER REMOANERS RANT... FRUITCAKES & LOONIES)

@DPJHodges Was Campbell being "bitter" when he mocked a 50p coin? Or was he merely thinking, like millions of us, that the inscription felt rather at odds with "17 million F*** Offs" proponents of the #Brexit ideology pride themselves on giving to the EU?

Was that just you editorialising?
Read 17 tweets
@Bebe111 @derekjames150 a) if we stop paying £7.9bn/yr (official figure) to EU dues, we also lose the £80bn/yr in benefits it yields. What's the plan to compensate our economy for that?

b) the UK govt divied up the quotas & OUR fishermen sold them. Those contracts will still apply post-#Brexit.

@Bebe111 @derekjames150 cont...

Why will those contracts still apply? The #RuleOfLaw is a cornerstone of our constitution. Contract law is local, UK law. Without it nobody who trades or transacts business of any kind could have confidence in engaging in any form of commerce in the UK.

@Bebe111 @derekjames150 cont...

Furthermore UK will still have to operate fishing quotas to protect the sea from overfishing and the fish from extinction - something our govt has kept v. QUIET about!

Read 40 tweets
A number of people (n > 2) have now asked me about the effect of rain on turnout, given that it is forecast to be wet on Thursday (1/n).
This is not a stupid question. There is academic research on the precipitation/turnout link, either for its own sake or as an instrumental variable (2/n).
The most cited paper on this topic finds that *an inch* of rain over the course of the day reduces turnout by almost one percent:… (3/n)
Read 16 tweets
I want to share a new paper. Its relevant to #GE2019. The findings are quite exemplary of the misguidedness of much of economic & social policy under the #ConservativeParty. It should be a harbinger to wary voters: there is more of the same under the Tories & with #Brexit. 1/..
The short summary: the reform to housing benefit from 2011 onwards was intended to save the public purse hundreds of millions. But quite the reverse happened: not only did it create huge amounts of misery and agony, it also ended up not saving the public much money at all. 2/..
What happened? From April 2011 onwards, local housing allowance was massively cut from covering up to the median level of rents, to only cover up to the 30th percentile of market rents. Here is a map of how this affected households in terms of expected losses per week. 3/..
Read 17 tweets
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here,, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
Just days away from a #GE2019 which will shape UK for many generations to come!

Some incontrovertible facts:

1/ UK GDP% growth has stalled, at just 0.1% over the 6 months to 30sep19 (so, virtually flat-lining). This is the worst 1/2 year performance since the financial crash.
2/ Three plus years on from the disastrous #EURef, we now KNOW that destabilising Russian influence/cash was a material factor in driving the #Leave Vote. So, #RussiaReport MUST be released BEFORE we vote again in #GE2019.
3/ Russian agents also freely KILL (when directed & funded to do so) on the streets of Britain, so let's not readily 'pooh pooh' their ambition & reach to destabilise both the #UK & #EU.
Read 17 tweets
In the grand arc of Farage's political career, today marks an important moment

Until now, a key part of his rhetoric has been based on the argument that none of the other parties offer an acceptable EU policy, tapping into wider discontents with politics and disconnection with elites

Sure, that meant a long time standing on the edge of the debate, chipping away at CON internal tensions, but ultimately it brought him to a much more consequential level of importance in the 2010s

Read 13 tweets
Flying back from abroad into UK political news is unreal. Cabinet members on Grenfell, No.10 brazenly burying a report on Russian interference, Tory party doctoring a video on Starmer, govt reversing a promise to give the Commons a vote...

Brexit has turned Britain inside out.
And that’s just today.

We have weeks ahead of this.

There are serious reasons to doubt the capability of our system to safeguard electoral integrity.

This list demonstrates that we are not in the safe hands of a govt who wants to promote trust & confidence in the system.
I heard a well-informed Canadian tourist say, after staying a week in Britain:

“Brexit seemed a lot funnier from the outside.”

Read 5 tweets
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
Read 8 tweets
"You can't change history - unless you're a historian." So said Mario Draghi yday in his final @ecb press conference. Except some (not him) have been attempting to re-write history recently, suggesting that the handling of the euro crisis was a triumph, not a disaster
For some, the fact that the eurozone made it through the crisis should be viewed as proof of the single currency's invincibility. It was tested and for all the scepticism, it survived. But this isn't right. The euro really did come dangerously close to collapse
I remember on the very day, at the very conference where Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the €, being told by another v v senior European policymaker that some of the bigger € members were facing financial chaos that might force them out of the currency
Read 9 tweets
On Wednesday & Thursday this week (thanks to many of you who generously donated to our crowdfund) a group of #RemainerNow are heading to Brussels to meet with MEPs & officials to show that the UK has changed its mind on Brexit. So what's happening?

The plans include:

🔺 A 2 hour sit down with numerous MEPs and officials from several countries
🔺A media session arranged by several UK MEPs
🔺Lunch meetings with several others
🔺A tour of the various buildings
🔺Meeting up with Brussels based anti-brexit activists.

The UK MEPs who we are definitely meeting include @MartinChelt & @CarolineVoaden of the @libdems, @SebDance & @RCorbettMEP from Labour & @AlynSmith from @theSNP. So do keep an eye on feeds.

Sadly Green MEPs are not actually in Brussels but they are supportive of the trip.

Read 18 tweets
THREAD of Boris Johnson getting owned on the campaign trail :-

There is a conceit shared by Tories/Media/Experts that they only lost #GE2017 because Theresa May was a useless campaigner.

Boris Johnson chased out of his alma mater Oxford by students
A brilliant bunch of teenagers in Plymouth slam Boris Johnson/Tories/media and defend Corbyn

Also call #GE2017 result better than all the pollsters and 'experts'

Boris Johnson confronted in St Ives over his Brexit lies
Read 15 tweets
This was meant as a general statement, but today I'd like to apply it to the EU

One of the consequences of #EUref was the construction of a public debate that says the EU is either the best thing since sliced bread, or the worst thing ever

Oddly, it's neither

People voted for lots of different reasons in #EUref - sometimes to do with the EU, sometimes not - but having become more invested in an identity as a Leaver or a Remainer, it's tempting to seek out things that confirm that identity

Read 11 tweets

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