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Ahead of our @UKandEU event on transition (with associated report) tomorrow, some thoughts on this neglected part of Brexit:

ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-t…

1/
In all the hubbub about the WA and the future relationship, it's easy to neglect the bit in-between

2/
Tomorrow's event aims to help rectify this, not least because it's got various problems that need to be discussed and debated

3/
Read 14 tweets
Hi, @SteveBakerHW. You’re in the news demanding a Hard #Brexit. Your briefing before the #EUref considers EFTA/EEA acceptable Brexit outcomes with “advantages and disadvantages” and WTO the “worst case scenario”. Can you explain why you now claim this isn’t “proper #Brexit”? Ta.
And while you’re at it, can you explain your thinking on the democratic implications of securing a referendum mandate on one basis and then reinterpreting it after the vote to mean something much narrower and very different? I look forward to your response. Thanks @SteveBakerHW.
Read 3 tweets
You cannot betray democracy with more democracy...particularly when the democratic process of the #EUref was severely damaged by the fact that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw as established by the Electoral Commission. bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
In any other democracy, such a lapse in the legality of a vote, be it an election or a referendum would require the vote to be re-run with much greater scrutiny. Even setting this aside, the case for a further referendum is strong...
We are two years further on, public opinion (which the referendum was singularly about) has arguably changed, we have also learned much more about the impact, mostly negative that leaving the #EU will have on a vast range of social, economic and institutional areas of the U.K...
Read 7 tweets
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I’m at a loss. We had a #EU referendum two years ago, this gave the then Govt a limited mandate to assess the possibility to leave our long standing association as a member of the EU and potentially negotiate an alternative trade and regulatory treaty. The mandate was limited...
...due to the advisory nature of the #EUref and the unknown outcomes of negotiations and the impact upon the UK. now its become very clear that for the majority of the UK, both its people and its institutions...
...leaving our current longstanding and highly successful arrangement is not only extremely complex and far reaching, but in virtually all aspects is enormously damaging both to our economic and social wellbeing...
Read 9 tweets
Here @BylineFest @peterjukes introduces @DamianCollins with @carolecadwalla - findings that Electoral Law was broken
Peter reminds us 🇬🇧 has no mueller investigation. The closest we have is @CommonsCMS #FakeNewsInquiry - #hybridwarfare

We don’t have criminal investigation

[yet - Yet!]
Support the Rule of Law. Consensus about evidence. This is not a party political issue @peterjukes
Read 22 tweets
Please take the time to listen & RT the hell out of trade negotiator @JasonJHunter taking @BrexitCentral editor @isaby to the cleaners on the catastrophic implications of a no deal #Brexit.

Isaby's deathly silence towards the end is something to behold:

soundcloud.com/bbcradiokent/n…
@JasonJHunter - "This happens every day in international trade, the fact that you don't know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours.....
@isaby -
For those unaware of Matthew Elliott's groom-of-the-stool, here's Jonathan Isaby "defending" his then deputy at BrexitCentral & #VoteLeave patsy, Darren Grimes, before Grimes was found to have broken electoral law by the @ElectoralCommUK in the #EURef:

brexitcentral.com/what-you-need-…
Read 4 tweets
This illustrates a recurrent theme of late: technical/legal capacity doesn't match with political incentives or imperatives

1/
Other examples abound, including:

- extension of Art.50
- a failed Meaningful Vote leading to renegotiation of WA
- using ECJ as arbiter in post-membership disputes

2/
In all cases, there's nothing of great technical difficulty, but the politics is too fraught or poisonous to allow it to occur

3/
Read 10 tweets
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis Let's look at the facts:
1. The Ref MPs voted for was advisory
2. Cameron then made it binding in the minds of voters who don't understand the niceties of our constitution, which was shabby & underhand of him, because he created a political imperative to take the Ref advice

/1.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 3. Parliament never formally made the decision to leave, but gave Mrs May the power to trigger #Article50 through the shameful A50 Bill (launched before its rubbish White Paper was released), which converted Parliament into an irrelevant rubber stamp in the #Brexit process.

/2.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 4. Under pressure from the Economic Ruin Group (ERG), Mrs May triggered A50 prematurely, without impact assessments and, crucially, without agreement in her party as to what form #Brexit should take, let alone a plan.

/3.
Read 20 tweets
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden This could take a while and I'm quite busy, but here goes
1. Donald Tusk, said, “Western political civilisation will be destroyed if the UK voted 'Leave'.” [Bild, 13 June 2016] I may be wrong but I think it is safe to say western political civilisation has not been destroyed.
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden 2.Punishment Budget. George Osborne [15 June 2016] predicted £30bn tax rises and IMMEDIATE spending cuts would be implemented. To date, no changes to the planned tax rates or public spending have been implemented.
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden 3.Brexit would cost every household £4,300. UK Treasury [18 April 2016] predicted that every household would lose between £2,600 and £5,200 a year following Brexit. Their (& IMF) latest prediction now confirms that even on WTO status the losses would be maybe a £100 or so
Read 57 tweets
Random #Brexit thread by middle-aged, white, Northern, working-class guy...
1. Before #EURef I knew little about EU. Decades of negative UK media had made me a bit sceptical. But I was not really “political”.
2. Got a Polish partner. Been together 18 years. Long before #EURef she’d started getting snarky comments from folks about being “over here” & “going home” etc. This got steadily worse & was kinda shocking.
Read 14 tweets
I'm doing some number crunching on the #AgreegateIQ #Facebook dataset given to @CommonsCMS. More to follow, but for starters ... THIS was the most-seen advert
@CommonsCMS According to the @CommonsCMS dataset it appeared on the @BrexitCentral Facebook page and was seen between 5,000,000 and 9,999,999 times.
@CommonsCMS @BrexitCentral It appeared alongside the text: "Being under EU rule is severely restricting our ability to grow and reach our full potential as a great nation. It is time we take a stand for Britain...
Read 9 tweets
So the @ElectoralCommUK rpt on Vote Leave/BeLeave coordination in #EUref is now available: electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journal…

Some thoughts:

1/
Rpt finds coordination did take place, resulted in substantial overspend by VL, and even more by BeLeave

2/
Also worth reading full rpt for discussion of VL's non-compliance w @ElectoralCommUK investigation

electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/… (p29 onwards)

3/
Read 12 tweets
A thread on why no-one's happy about Brexit:

1/
Two big reasons why this is:

The referendum, and

The nature of Brexit itself

2/
#EUref offered a binary outcome: remain or leave

However, it didn't specific what either would consist of, in binding terms at least

3/
Read 17 tweets
1. Cabinet minister accused of not telling truth by NAO, authorities to say Vote Leave broke law in #euref, Cabinet squabbling over eu plans they haven’t all even seen yet and eu likely to reject, brexiteer MPs summoned to see chief whip - just another day in 2018 -oh, and #pmqs
2. Anyone else ready for the holidays?
3. If it’s the kind of thing that floats your boat, apparently ERG MPs summoned the chief whip not the other way round -
Read 3 tweets
Tax-paying EU citizens in UK:
1 Denied vote over their own future in #EURef
2 Told "nothing would change" in case of #Brexit
3 Dubbed "bargaining chips" by UK Govt
4 Been left "in limbo" for 2 years
5 Forced to pay a fee just to be allowed to get on with their lives
#shameful
And on top of that, EU citizens have been publicly abused in a sustained tabloid hate campaign; some have been victims of hate crimes; and, overall, their plight has been largley ignored by UK TV news, incl. @BBCNews & @Channel4News ...
... These "EU citizens" are our friends, neighbours, colleagues, partners, spouses, girlfriends, boyfriends & family members. And for the last 40+ years, British people have been EU citizens too ...
Read 4 tweets
1. A Very International Brexit.

Why a real-life ‘Citizen of the world’ voted Leave.

A thread to mark the second anniversary of Brexit.

#IndependenceDay #Brexit #brexitday #EUref #PeoplesVoteMarch #Freedommarch #StopBrexit #ProBrexit #BrexitReality #BrexitShambles
2. I can’t help but giggle a little when I hear Remainers pointificate about how us Brexit voters are all ignorant, naïve parochial, racist, xenophobic, little-Englanders.
3.There are very few people who can use the term #globalcitizen as much a me. And the term is nonsense.

It’s the multiculturalists, with their ‘more that unites us than divides us’ religious mantras, who are the naïve ones, who don’t understand the world. #GreatGetTogether.
Read 30 tweets
THREAD

On fatherhood and its link to why we must ensure we #stopbrexit and the #Remainernow campaign.

1/14
Early on Thursday my 2nd daughter was born & she is doing well.

Any of you who are parents will appreciate the feelings of pride & affection I have experienced for the last few days. Many will also appreciate the desire as a father to give your child the best future you can 2/14
My 1st child was born in the build up to the #EUref and turned 3 months of the day of the vote.

As a result of being a new father, being complacent & having never been political before, I didn’t campaign in 2016 apart from sharing many of anti-brexit articles on Facebook! 3/14
Read 15 tweets
Right. Decent seat, and all set for some live-tweeting from #NIBrexit
A reminder that the programme is here: ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-a… and live-streaming is here: facebook.com/TheUKinaChangi…
You'll also want the @UKandEU report that goes with all this: ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-and-ireland…
Read 111 tweets
Backed by 70% of voters (#LocalElections2018) our two major parties aim to take UK down to the minor leagues of sub-#G20 growth, supported by NO detailed plans as to the costs, complexities & consequences of such bizarre recklessness. Not just insane, but amazingly short-sighted!
2. Is this a case of who blinks first? Surely I, and fellow well-informed remainers, are not in exclusive possession of key economic facts and trends? Con/Lab MUST have these too? Maybe everyone should check the latest @guardian piece by @williamnhutton!
3. People who think Brexit (in any form!) would be easy, painless or cost-free are very sorely deluded! Maybe the 70% who just voted Con/Lab in #LocalElections2018 should have been asking 'that question' of their wannabe councillors? before parting with their votes? Too late now!
Read 14 tweets
Let's think about the Brexit impact of Windrush/Rudd:

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(to be clear, this isn't the most important aspect of it all, but Rudd's resignation does make for more of a connection)

2/
Let's start w Rudd herself.

Her resignation causes assorted Brexit headaches for May/CONs

3/
Read 19 tweets
PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON - Accuracy of Brexit economics forecasts edition

Brexit supporting economists come.........last
Just to be clear what the chart shows. The foreacsts I have used are the first full published ones after the #EURef.

The period chosen is the cumulative growth rate between Q2 2016 and Q1 2018 (ie all the relevant data)
I have assumed a smooth pattern of growth where quarterly predictions are unavailable.

@OBR_UK, @bankofengland, private sector economists too pessimistic so far.

Economsts for Brexit/@Econs4FreeTrade too significantly too optimistic

@OBR_UK closest but it's effort was later
Read 5 tweets
Kate Hoey, Brexit and why it still matters in the #LocalElection2018 - a thread.

This time last year, the local Labour Party (including many council candidates) were busy campaigning to get Hoey back into parliament. She’s been the Vauxhall Labour Party MP since the late 1980s.
The same cohort of campaigners are now distributing literature, tweets etc emphasising their “pro EU” stance and their support for the many thousands of EU residents living and working in Lambeth.

Today Hoey again spoke in Parliament - in favour of the hardest Brexit possible.
You cannot have both. It is *not possible* to both campaign and fund and support Kate Hoey MP while also campaigning on a Pro-EU platform. It does not square. At best it is a confused position, indicative of a local party at war, but at worst it is misleading and unfair.
Read 12 tweets
One of the most depressing things about whole #Brexit shambles is that most people with any knowledge of international relations, trade, diplomacy, etc. warned of the negative consequences which are becoming more and more obvious. They were ignored, branded as liars and abused.
The long timescale between #EURef and #Brexit means that negative consequences weren't immediately apparent, but as we rush headlong towards 29th March 2019 with no certainty of what next, folk are beginning to wonder if this is such a great idea. If perhaps, Leave lied to them
I suppose this gives a degree of academic 'bragging rights' to those of us who warned that Johnson, Gove, Farage etc. were lying charlatans, that Leave could never deliver their contradictory promises, and that Brexit would be against the national interest… but…
Read 4 tweets
couldn’t find a leader who *wants* #HostileEnviroment. Just @DPJHodges - “it’s what people want, but politicians hate it”

Tragic commentary. Thread 1/
ignores political leadership & public learning from experience. He’s wrong about politicians & public opinions. And he’s not doing his job. 2/
Leadership matters: studies find many anti-foreigners want political leaders to be *better than them* - less ideological / obsessive. Kinder. 3/
Read 17 tweets
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