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While we kick up our heels, waiting for stuff to come out of the Tunnel, here's a thought or two on the basic dynamic of Art.50:

1/
The underlying issue in this negotiation has been that the party who triggered it - the UK - did so without a firm plan and strategic intention in place, and has continued to fail to create such a plan or intention

2/
To be more precise, there was a decision in #EUref to leave the EU, but no consensus about why that decision was taken

3/
Read 16 tweets
A few quick thoughts on #C4Brexit @Survation poll of 20,000 people interviewed between 20/10 to 2/11.

54% of those who would vote now backing Remain.

Survey shows England too has gone Remain.

70% @UKLabour voters are Remain.

But our political situation is stuck in time. /1
A striking feature from @Survation analysis is that support for leaving EU has fallen most sharply in local authorities that saw highest vote share for Leave

Left pic (today) shows England too has gone Remain (yellow) from results in June 2016 (right). /2
This excellent @chrishanretty thread analysing @Survation data shows that its predominantly @UKLabour areas in the North that have seen greatest change.

That doesn’t begin to be reflected in the Labour leadership’s nearsilence on all things Brexit. /3

Read 12 tweets
Now that the #c4brexit show's over, time for some background charts focusing on trends in different areas (1/n)
As you might expect, there's a strong association between 2016 vote and how LAs would vote now (2/n)
Switches away from Leave are:
- more pronounced in areas that started out Leavier;
- more pronounced in areas that voted UKIP in the 2014 EP elections;
Switches away from Leave are:
- less pronounced in areas which voted Cons. in the 2014 EP elections
Read 14 tweets
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We all know now that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw. We all know that Arron Banks has been referred to the NCA for investigation, after @MetPoliceUK declined to look into the @ElectoralCommUK's evidence. MPs are "calling for a pause" in #Brexit.

theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/n… /1
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
#NoDealBrexit is disastrous, but the UK is woefully unprepared for the massive changes to ensue with any kind of #Brexit: the Tories have treated the Brexit negotiations as a game in which they held all the cards, & in consequence have failed utterly to make any progress. /3
Read 18 tweets
Throughout the Brexit process, there's been lots of this: choices encountering barriers
For some, the barriers suggest that the choices were wrong

For others, the barriers suggest that not enough effort has been put into overcoming them
Read 11 tweets
1. Dear @carolinenokes MP and @10DowningStreet.
I started to work in the UK (for @fusionenergy) on the 14/04/2014 as Senior Electrical Designer, I am now an Electrical systems design engineer.
A "#HighSkilled migrant" as they say, but not eligible to the #SettledStatus. [THREAD]
2. I will have my 5 eligible years on the 14/04/2019.
Or 16 days after #BrexitDay.
Maybe it is worth to mention that I arrived on the 01/12/2013. So I have actually my 5 years, but I have no proof.
I was joining an ex-partner to look for work in the UK, my name was not on bills.
3. Yesterday, like other fellow @The3Million, I read the following article.
"Employers will be expected to check whether EU nationals have the right to work in the UK if there is a #NoDeal #Brexit, even though it will be almost impossible to assess this".
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 14 tweets
Our second #NegotBrexit keynote: @NvOndarza on German views
Von Ondarza: A history of misunderstandings
Von Ondarza: public view was of British pragmatism, so much shock at #EUref, then sadness
Read 9 tweets
As we hear from @NegotBrexit colleagues, some thoughts about EU27 views on Brexit:

1/
After immediate shock of #EUref result, most MS weren't that engaged.

COM/EUCO had a clear plan and w/o Art.50 notification, so no immediate danger

2/
Those with obvious concerns (IE, NL, etc.) got good access to that EU plan, plus uploading of interests therein, so strengthening buy-in to EU unity

3/
Read 10 tweets
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
“The govt insisted on holding a referendum for stupid reasons”: Ken Clarke MP holding forth on Brexit at #IBARome

“Hardly any mainstream politician makes the case for immigration; British society has hugely benefited from it.”
Ken Clarke on the anti-immigration fearmongering & #fakenews in Brexit campaign: Just as Farage campaigned with ‘brown people’ on his posters, so they used Turkey, 70m Turks would come to the UK to take jobs etc.

Mainstream politicians ran the Turkey issue - eg Michael Gove.
“Anybody who tells you they know what will happen in British politics is deceiving themselves. We are in the middle of a mad, anarchic situation as every other western democracy.” Ken Clarke when asked what he thinks will happen on Brexit negs.
Read 12 tweets
This was always going to be the issue with another referendum: fundamental disagreement about explicit and implicit purpose of the exercise

1/
Part of success of #PeoplesVote agt was saying that it was about democracy/legitimacy of the outcome

Fine, but subtext of reopening #EUref was always going to be there

2/
Thus two different things:

- getting buy-in to terms of WA/PD
- getting revocation back on the table

Two rather different audiences, and requiring two different sets of Qs in vote, so unavoidable unwinding

3/
Read 7 tweets
Ahead of our @UKandEU event on transition (with associated report) tomorrow, some thoughts on this neglected part of Brexit:

ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-t…

1/
In all the hubbub about the WA and the future relationship, it's easy to neglect the bit in-between

2/
Tomorrow's event aims to help rectify this, not least because it's got various problems that need to be discussed and debated

3/
Read 14 tweets
Hi, @SteveBakerHW. You’re in the news demanding a Hard #Brexit. Your briefing before the #EUref considers EFTA/EEA acceptable Brexit outcomes with “advantages and disadvantages” and WTO the “worst case scenario”. Can you explain why you now claim this isn’t “proper #Brexit”? Ta.
And while you’re at it, can you explain your thinking on the democratic implications of securing a referendum mandate on one basis and then reinterpreting it after the vote to mean something much narrower and very different? I look forward to your response. Thanks @SteveBakerHW.
Read 3 tweets
Here @BylineFest @peterjukes introduces @DamianCollins with @carolecadwalla - findings that Electoral Law was broken
Peter reminds us 🇬🇧 has no mueller investigation. The closest we have is @CommonsCMS #FakeNewsInquiry - #hybridwarfare

We don’t have criminal investigation

[yet - Yet!]
Support the Rule of Law. Consensus about evidence. This is not a party political issue @peterjukes
Read 22 tweets
Please take the time to listen & RT the hell out of trade negotiator @JasonJHunter taking @BrexitCentral editor @isaby to the cleaners on the catastrophic implications of a no deal #Brexit.

Isaby's deathly silence towards the end is something to behold:

soundcloud.com/bbcradiokent/n…
@JasonJHunter - "This happens every day in international trade, the fact that you don't know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours.....
@isaby -
For those unaware of Matthew Elliott's groom-of-the-stool, here's Jonathan Isaby "defending" his then deputy at BrexitCentral & #VoteLeave patsy, Darren Grimes, before Grimes was found to have broken electoral law by the @ElectoralCommUK in the #EURef:

brexitcentral.com/what-you-need-…
Read 4 tweets
This illustrates a recurrent theme of late: technical/legal capacity doesn't match with political incentives or imperatives

1/
Other examples abound, including:

- extension of Art.50
- a failed Meaningful Vote leading to renegotiation of WA
- using ECJ as arbiter in post-membership disputes

2/
In all cases, there's nothing of great technical difficulty, but the politics is too fraught or poisonous to allow it to occur

3/
Read 10 tweets
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis Let's look at the facts:
1. The Ref MPs voted for was advisory
2. Cameron then made it binding in the minds of voters who don't understand the niceties of our constitution, which was shabby & underhand of him, because he created a political imperative to take the Ref advice

/1.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 3. Parliament never formally made the decision to leave, but gave Mrs May the power to trigger #Article50 through the shameful A50 Bill (launched before its rubbish White Paper was released), which converted Parliament into an irrelevant rubber stamp in the #Brexit process.

/2.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 4. Under pressure from the Economic Ruin Group (ERG), Mrs May triggered A50 prematurely, without impact assessments and, crucially, without agreement in her party as to what form #Brexit should take, let alone a plan.

/3.
Read 20 tweets
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden This could take a while and I'm quite busy, but here goes
1. Donald Tusk, said, “Western political civilisation will be destroyed if the UK voted 'Leave'.” [Bild, 13 June 2016] I may be wrong but I think it is safe to say western political civilisation has not been destroyed.
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden 2.Punishment Budget. George Osborne [15 June 2016] predicted £30bn tax rises and IMMEDIATE spending cuts would be implemented. To date, no changes to the planned tax rates or public spending have been implemented.
@HowShouldWeVote @RoyMotteram @RemainLies_ @Fenmonkey @CanaryAndy @EmbersBrexit @trawlerhorse @JohnMcGlynn @DeborahMeaden 3.Brexit would cost every household £4,300. UK Treasury [18 April 2016] predicted that every household would lose between £2,600 and £5,200 a year following Brexit. Their (& IMF) latest prediction now confirms that even on WTO status the losses would be maybe a £100 or so
Read 57 tweets
Random #Brexit thread by middle-aged, white, Northern, working-class guy...
1. Before #EURef I knew little about EU. Decades of negative UK media had made me a bit sceptical. But I was not really “political”.
2. Got a Polish partner. Been together 18 years. Long before #EURef she’d started getting snarky comments from folks about being “over here” & “going home” etc. This got steadily worse & was kinda shocking.
Read 14 tweets
I'm doing some number crunching on the #AgreegateIQ #Facebook dataset given to @CommonsCMS. More to follow, but for starters ... THIS was the most-seen advert
@CommonsCMS According to the @CommonsCMS dataset it appeared on the @BrexitCentral Facebook page and was seen between 5,000,000 and 9,999,999 times.
@CommonsCMS @BrexitCentral It appeared alongside the text: "Being under EU rule is severely restricting our ability to grow and reach our full potential as a great nation. It is time we take a stand for Britain...
Read 9 tweets
So the @ElectoralCommUK rpt on Vote Leave/BeLeave coordination in #EUref is now available: electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journal…

Some thoughts:

1/
Rpt finds coordination did take place, resulted in substantial overspend by VL, and even more by BeLeave

2/
Also worth reading full rpt for discussion of VL's non-compliance w @ElectoralCommUK investigation

electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/… (p29 onwards)

3/
Read 12 tweets
A thread on why no-one's happy about Brexit:

1/
Two big reasons why this is:

The referendum, and

The nature of Brexit itself

2/
#EUref offered a binary outcome: remain or leave

However, it didn't specific what either would consist of, in binding terms at least

3/
Read 17 tweets
1. Cabinet minister accused of not telling truth by NAO, authorities to say Vote Leave broke law in #euref, Cabinet squabbling over eu plans they haven’t all even seen yet and eu likely to reject, brexiteer MPs summoned to see chief whip - just another day in 2018 -oh, and #pmqs
2. Anyone else ready for the holidays?
3. If it’s the kind of thing that floats your boat, apparently ERG MPs summoned the chief whip not the other way round -
Read 3 tweets
Tax-paying EU citizens in UK:
1 Denied vote over their own future in #EURef
2 Told "nothing would change" in case of #Brexit
3 Dubbed "bargaining chips" by UK Govt
4 Been left "in limbo" for 2 years
5 Forced to pay a fee just to be allowed to get on with their lives
#shameful
And on top of that, EU citizens have been publicly abused in a sustained tabloid hate campaign; some have been victims of hate crimes; and, overall, their plight has been largley ignored by UK TV news, incl. @BBCNews & @Channel4News ...
... These "EU citizens" are our friends, neighbours, colleagues, partners, spouses, girlfriends, boyfriends & family members. And for the last 40+ years, British people have been EU citizens too ...
Read 4 tweets
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