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Sunder Katwala @sundersays
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With the immigration white paper due to be published tomorrow, a thread of useful resources.

The government is responding to this Migration Advisory Committee report…

Summary of MAC recommendations…
Immigration to the UK: facts from @migobs…

There have been changes since the 2016 referendum, with a drop in net migration from the EU, with ONS reporting increased non-EU migration.…
The biggest ever public engagement on immigration was @Nationalconvers from @britishfuture and @hopenothate Our final findings here: most people are balancers - seeing pressures and gains of migration - but trust in government is very low.…
Immigration attitudes have shifted since the referendum. That has been captured in many separate studies. This longitudinal @ipsosmori tracker survey is one of the most detailed pre- and post-referendum…

Slides from @IpsosMORI…
The salience of immigration has reduced - as Brexit has risen. Attitudes are also more positive - or less sceptical. This Washington Post piece talks to several experts including @robfordmancs about what might have driven these changes…
As @BobbyDuffyKings has put it, the attitudes shift is a mixture of 'reassurance and regret'. When asked, half of those who have changed their minds, say it is because they expect more control; another half say they are more aware of the positives now.
Here is @robfordmancs discussing the shift of attitudes on immigration since 2016…
No guarantee that attitudes might not shift back again. I wrote for @guardian last summer about the opportunity for Home Secretary Sajid Javid to shift the immigration narrative of the government - but that the PM may be harder to persuade than the public…
Public take different views of different immig flows.
* only 1/4 people want reductions in skilled or student migration: cross-referendum consensus
* support for controls/reductions in lower & semi-skill migration. Yet recognise pragmatic case for too…
Key issues
* MAC recommend removing tier 2 skilled migration cap entirely
* Policy more open to non-EU skilled migration than now. A popular move with NHS, tech, law, finance, academia.
* would add to non-EU net migration (well above 100k on its own). Hence why not done 2010-16
(2) Most contested MAC recommendation: no migration for work visa route below tier 2 threshold (except for an agricultural sector scheme). Big impacts on social care, hospitality/tourism, food, construction. This seems to be the central policy debate inside government.
(3) more temporary migration vs integration impacts

MAC mooted extending 2 year youth mobility visas (under-30s).

Govt considered 11-month visa (cooking books) & may now propose 12-month work visas (unrenewable). Concerns re churn, integration, enforcement & productivity.
White Paper about new system from 2021 onwards.

Brexit deal would have a transition to Dec 2020 (may extend to 2022).

Deal or no deal, EU nationals wd have 21 months to register for settled status. (Govt is reluctant to acknowledge this makes new 2019 controls unenforceable).
FT: white paper to "note" MAC recommendation of £30k salary threshold and to consult on it. (A bit of a gap between headline & report).

FT: a day of bad tempered debate between No 10 & Treasury, ends in proposal to consult on proposed £30k salary threshold for EU/EEA migration (as part of a proposed global migration system). FT anticipates no numerical limit above threshold (EU or non-EU)…
Huffington Post: includes brief Home Secretary quotes from overnight trail, pre-publication…
Sky News: Javid and Abbott quotes.
* Cap on tier 2 skills to go
* 1st reading to Immigration & Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill, Thursday.…
* 'extensive consultation' on £30k threshold after Cabinet row
* tier 2 quota abolished
* 12 month visas, can not be renewed for a year, below threshold
* reduce to sustainable levels, but PM wish to repeat 'tens of thousands' target vetoed…
Main news of Javid interview @BBCr4today
* confirmation that govt has not yet decided on £30k threshold, or picked the number, prior to consulting.
* Also that govt plans to propose some lower thresholds, arising from shortage occupations review.

The "year long consultation process" on White Paper is a reminder that govt is planning immigration reforms for 2021 (which may become 2022, if there is a deal) and not for April 2019. (Could legislate earlier: legislation may be framework/powers, not the policy detail)
The immigration white paper can be read here…
* The White Paper proposes an Annual Migraton Report by the MAC - with the government agreeing with @CommonsHomeAffs and @Nationalconvers on the value of this.

* This should be a focal point for an annual Migration Day in parliament

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