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Sunder Katwala @sundersays
, 24 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
With the immigration white paper due to be published tomorrow, a thread of useful resources.

The government is responding to this Migration Advisory Committee report gov.uk/government/pub…

Summary of MAC recommendations
reuters.com/article/us-bri…
Immigration to the UK: facts from @migobs
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…

There have been changes since the 2016 referendum, with a drop in net migration from the EU, with ONS reporting increased non-EU migration.
pbs.twimg.com/media/DtKhn0ZX…
The biggest ever public engagement on immigration was @Nationalconvers from @britishfuture and @hopenothate Our final findings here: most people are balancers - seeing pressures and gains of migration - but trust in government is very low.
britishfuture.org/articles/natio…
Immigration attitudes have shifted since the referendum. That has been captured in many separate studies. This longitudinal @ipsosmori tracker survey is one of the most detailed pre- and post-referendum
ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-…

Slides from @IpsosMORI
slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/shif…
The salience of immigration has reduced - as Brexit has risen. Attitudes are also more positive - or less sceptical. This Washington Post piece talks to several experts including @robfordmancs about what might have driven these changes
washingtonpost.com/world/europe/i…
As @BobbyDuffyKings has put it, the attitudes shift is a mixture of 'reassurance and regret'. When asked, half of those who have changed their minds, say it is because they expect more control; another half say they are more aware of the positives now.
Here is @robfordmancs discussing the shift of attitudes on immigration since 2016

ukandeu.ac.uk/how-have-attit…
No guarantee that attitudes might not shift back again. I wrote for @guardian last summer about the opportunity for Home Secretary Sajid Javid to shift the immigration narrative of the government - but that the PM may be harder to persuade than the public
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Public take different views of different immig flows.
* only 1/4 people want reductions in skilled or student migration: cross-referendum consensus
* support for controls/reductions in lower & semi-skill migration. Yet recognise pragmatic case for too
britishfuture.org/articles/immig…
Key issues
* MAC recommend removing tier 2 skilled migration cap entirely
* Policy more open to non-EU skilled migration than now. A popular move with NHS, tech, law, finance, academia.
* would add to non-EU net migration (well above 100k on its own). Hence why not done 2010-16
(2) Most contested MAC recommendation: no migration for work visa route below tier 2 threshold (except for an agricultural sector scheme). Big impacts on social care, hospitality/tourism, food, construction. This seems to be the central policy debate inside government.
(3) more temporary migration vs integration impacts

MAC mooted extending 2 year youth mobility visas (under-30s).

Govt considered 11-month visa (cooking books) & may now propose 12-month work visas (unrenewable). Concerns re churn, integration, enforcement & productivity.
White Paper about new system from 2021 onwards.

Brexit deal would have a transition to Dec 2020 (may extend to 2022).

Deal or no deal, EU nationals wd have 21 months to register for settled status. (Govt is reluctant to acknowledge this makes new 2019 controls unenforceable).
FT: white paper to "note" MAC recommendation of £30k salary threshold and to consult on it. (A bit of a gap between headline & report).

FT: a day of bad tempered debate between No 10 & Treasury, ends in proposal to consult on proposed £30k salary threshold for EU/EEA migration (as part of a proposed global migration system). FT anticipates no numerical limit above threshold (EU or non-EU)
ft.com/content/608780…
Huffington Post: includes brief Home Secretary quotes from overnight trail, pre-publication

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sajid-ja…
Sky News: Javid and Abbott quotes.
* Cap on tier 2 skills to go
* 1st reading to Immigration & Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill, Thursday.

news.sky.com/story/post-bre…
Sun:
* 'extensive consultation' on £30k threshold after Cabinet row
* tier 2 quota abolished
* 12 month visas, can not be renewed for a year, below threshold
* reduce to sustainable levels, but PM wish to repeat 'tens of thousands' target vetoed
thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/80…
Main news of Javid interview @BBCr4today
* confirmation that govt has not yet decided on £30k threshold, or picked the number, prior to consulting.
* Also that govt plans to propose some lower thresholds, arising from shortage occupations review.

The "year long consultation process" on White Paper is a reminder that govt is planning immigration reforms for 2021 (which may become 2022, if there is a deal) and not for April 2019. (Could legislate earlier: legislation may be framework/powers, not the policy detail)
The immigration white paper can be read here
gov.uk/government/pub…
* The White Paper proposes an Annual Migraton Report by the MAC - with the government agreeing with @CommonsHomeAffs and @Nationalconvers on the value of this.

* This should be a focal point for an annual Migration Day in parliament

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A scenario/theory: Britain to leave the European Union, with the Withdrawal Agreement deal, but slightly (about 4-6 weeks)
after the current March 29th 2019 deadline.

How this might happen ...
Jan 15th Commons vote proceeds. Government is defeated. Lets say its about 240 votes to 400 (majority 160). Opposition united against (bar a handful). Some opposition MPs explain they oppose both no deal & a referendum but are voting no with the Labour whip to this deal now.
PM says deal still in national interest: no alternatives to it. Labour calls for election: DUP says support govt on confidence. ERG declares confidence in gvt (calling for no deal). Pro-EU Cons confidence (call for referendum)
* Conf vote not put, or is survived. Majority 6-10.
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I think there are two (& only two) ways for an anti-no deal majority to "stop no deal"
(1) Vote for a deal (if not first time, then second time: maybe same deal or any variation/tweak)
(2) Persuade/"instruct" govt to seek extension/suspension of Article 50 (prob with EU consent)
(1) seems the more likely route: put the deal again. A deal ought to pass second time (in Dec/Jan), if efforts to call general election/referendum were voted on & fell short

(2) needs a reason/plan of what the agreed A50 extension is for: a referendum, or general election.
General election variant also needs to then turn into support for a withdrawal agreement deal, or a referendum (before extension expires, to prevent no deal)

(Or another agreed delay, before choosing a withdrawal deal or a referendum. Ad infinitum, but only if by mutual consent)
Read 12 tweets
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I've been talking Brexit again with the in-laws, both Leave voters from Billericay, Essex. Father-in-law very strongly Brexit (thinks he was right the first time in 1975). Mother-in-law went for Leave but views have toughened post-2016.
As longtime Mail readers, they had v.much noticed the Daily Mail's change of view "over the last three or four days". "The editor has changed. The new editor is an idiot".
Sam is for ditching the Mail. Kathy would miss it. Apparently, it will be The Times from Monday. (Will see if this happens/sticks)

Sticking with the Mail on Sunday. (They do know MoS was pro-Remain MoS all along, but like the magazines. Backing the deal seems to be different).
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Today’s Migration Advisory Committee report, despite clear positives, isn’t just problematic for the sorts of simplifications and lack of care in parts of the report itself that I noted in my earlier thread, but also for what media have made of it.
Let’s have a look ⬇️ 1/
Here is what the MAC actually said about the future treatment of EU citizens. Please note that little word at the beginning ... “if” ... 2/
No if ... 3/
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Some thoughts on the Migration Advisory Committee report:
Many positives in terms of evidence - though we already knew that from other studies - but a much less positive picture in terms of some conclusions (and what they will be used for by some). huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-citiz… 1/
Overall, MAC report provides comprehensive evidence of the positive impact of immigration. It details, for example how EEA citizens contribute much more to the health service than they take out; highlights the fact that there is no link to increase in crime, unemployment etc; 2/
and gives vital context, such as that the fall in £ has done a lot more to make people poorer / affect prices etc than immigration. In that sense the report is certainly helpful debunking lies. See this excellent thread by @The3Million for more: 3/
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#TooManyWhites #WhatToDo?
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Brexiteers worry that delay to Immigration Bill will prevent UK from setting up new migration regime next year (if there’s no deal)
They shouldn’t. Fast-tracked bill won’t make a difference. It is not going to happen. 1/
PM already said in Florence Speech – based on ‘practicalities’, new migration regime will not be ready until ‘around’ two years after we leave.

That is true regardless of deal or no deal... and even that is ambitious… 2/
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