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Sunder Katwala @sundersays
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I think there are two (& only two) ways for an anti-no deal majority to "stop no deal"
(1) Vote for a deal (if not first time, then second time: maybe same deal or any variation/tweak)
(2) Persuade/"instruct" govt to seek extension/suspension of Article 50 (prob with EU consent)
(1) seems the more likely route: put the deal again. A deal ought to pass second time (in Dec/Jan), if efforts to call general election/referendum were voted on & fell short

(2) needs a reason/plan of what the agreed A50 extension is for: a referendum, or general election.
General election variant also needs to then turn into support for a withdrawal agreement deal, or a referendum (before extension expires, to prevent no deal)

(Or another agreed delay, before choosing a withdrawal deal or a referendum. Ad infinitum, but only if by mutual consent)
The referendum variant requires a longer delay than most people think. Lots of calculations on the minimum *legal* timeline.

Worth factoring in that Referendum (People's Vote) Bill probably the most contentious legislation of the last half century (much more than Maastricht).
In the real world, I think passing Referendum Bill wd require a pro-referendum government.

It would more probably be a consequence of a General Election, not an alternative to one. (*If* GE led to change of govt & *if* that govt wanted a referendum & wanted to prioritise that).
If in Dec, there are not the votes for the deal, nor referendum, nor general election, the choice within 21 days (govt could move sooner) would be to vote for the/a deal, or to seek to extend/A50 without election/referendum.

(Which, even *if*accepted, just delays similar choice)
In the (not likely but not impossible) General Election, it is widely thought that Labour could not now run *again* on the Constructive Ambiguity position that served them very well in 2017.

But they could.

And they probably would!
An example of a hypothetical Jan/Feb 2019 manifesto that Corbyn, Starmer & Labour Remainers could fashion: *still ruling nothing out*

This Rudd-Starmer "prevent no deal" allliance is key. It has 450-550+ potential votes, split across four different first preferences (this deal; a different deal; an election; a referendum) for which alternative can command a winning coalition

Amber Rudd ranked her preferences on Newsnight 22nd Oct

Labour's preferences are the inverse. Definitely (4) first, not sure if (3) or (2) next (leader, unlike party, not keen on either). (1) least favoured alternative.

If (4) & (3) fail, maybe (1)
Nicola Sturgeon, ideally would Remain. She will definitely oppose No Deal.

Her priorities
1. Customs Union/EEA
2. referendum
3. SNP would vote for a general election.…
A prediction that the PM would be forced into a referendum. However possible option of bringing the deal back in 21 days (& opposition abstaining/reluctantly supporting, if majority was not there to secureGE or referendum) is not considered
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