I've been talking Brexit again with the in-laws, both Leave voters from Billericay, Essex. Father-in-law very strongly Brexit (thinks he was right the first time in 1975). Mother-in-law went for Leave but views have toughened post-2016.
As longtime Mail readers, they had v.much noticed the Daily Mail's change of view "over the last three or four days". "The editor has changed. The new editor is an idiot". 
Sam is for ditching the Mail. Kathy would miss it. Apparently, it will be The Times from Monday. (Will see if this happens/sticks)
Sticking with the Mail on Sunday. (They do know MoS was pro-Remain MoS all along, but like the magazines. Backing the deal seems to be different).
Sticking with the Mail on Sunday. (They do know MoS was pro-Remain MoS all along, but like the magazines. Backing the deal seems to be different).
They are v.unhappy with the PM over the deal and hope she goes next week. (They think this might well happen if there is a vote on her). Alternate PMs include Rees-Mogg or Davis. Javid would be fine too. Without a change, they say they will protest & vote for Corbyn.
The in-laws are swing voters (though told them I think they have been a bit radicalised by Brexit)
Post-1987 something like
Thatcher/Thatcher
Major/Major
Ashdown/Blair
Blair/Blair
Blair/Howard
Cameron/Cameron
Farage/Cameron* (* have been Miliband; can't recall)
May/May
Post-1987 something like
Thatcher/Thatcher
Major/Major
Ashdown/Blair
Blair/Blair
Blair/Howard
Cameron/Cameron
Farage/Cameron* (* have been Miliband; can't recall)
May/May
Problems with deal include selling out Northern Ireland & breaking up UK. They think DUP are right about that.
I asked Kathy (Irish, Catholic, Dublin-born) if she is also still in favour of a united Ireland. She is, in principle, but UK voted for Brexit so not at behest of EU
I asked Kathy (Irish, Catholic, Dublin-born) if she is also still in favour of a united Ireland. She is, in principle, but UK voted for Brexit so not at behest of EU
The in-laws v.well-informed on Westminster politics of last few days. Eg, think Mordaunt and Leadsom have not resigned yet as a group of 5 ministers will resign later if they can not get the deal changed. (They do think Cons MPs will ditch May)
I was told that the Brexit deal was being talked about by lots of people in M & S Bluewater cafe this morning - eg could hear people talking about it on other tables - & that everyone they have spoken to about it thinks much the same thing.
Much too much back-stabbing in Westminster & everyone in it for themselves. But deal is so useless that it is important to bring the PM down. (In June 2017 they thought post-election moves against May were unfair & disloyal). Sam said he heard Steve Baker "talking sense" on Sky
They are for leaving without a deal.
Do not see v.basic stuff at risk: we had access to medicines before we were in the EU.
It will be chaotic now, lorries at Dover, because govt didnt sort any of it out for 2 years. May's fault. It will take a year to sort out after we leave
Do not see v.basic stuff at risk: we had access to medicines before we were in the EU.
It will be chaotic now, lorries at Dover, because govt didnt sort any of it out for 2 years. May's fault. It will take a year to sort out after we leave
I struggled a bit to make a case for leaving with a deal. We can then sort out the things over a year or two that have not been yet, without Dover chaos.
This was mostly because No Deal is assumed to obviously include common sense Uk/EU solutions to the absolutely basic things.
This was mostly because No Deal is assumed to obviously include common sense Uk/EU solutions to the absolutely basic things.
Anyway, they were happy for all of you in the twitter bubble to hear what people in the Essex Leave bubble are thinking about all of this
Esp as the Mail has now changed sides, I was interested in where they had got the information about the deal to form (albeit confirm) their view. Online,.various (including BBC reports) radio & TV news.
For example, Nigel Farage was persuasive on Radio 2 in explaining why it has been a stitch-up.
It struck me that
* Broadcast > Print
* Leave broadcast messages usually simpler (so clearer) than Remain - but this time many Remain broadcast messages similar to Leave messages (on the deal), so can reinforce the overall hard Leave mesage.
* Broadcast > Print
* Leave broadcast messages usually simpler (so clearer) than Remain - but this time many Remain broadcast messages similar to Leave messages (on the deal), so can reinforce the overall hard Leave mesage.
PM's biggest public comms challenge is about "No Deal"
- Strong intuition that 'they are bound to sort something sensible out'. (Hasn't the PM said all along its possible? no deal being better than a bad deal).
- Public mistrust from 2016 in what all sides say exacerbates
- Strong intuition that 'they are bound to sort something sensible out'. (Hasn't the PM said all along its possible? no deal being better than a bad deal).
- Public mistrust from 2016 in what all sides say exacerbates
In-laws see failings of the deal arising from Theresa May being a Remainer, who never really believed in it.
q.hard for many Remainers to understand this view of Theresa May as a Remainer (defined by immigration, citizens of nowhere, etc)
So May v.narrow support from any side
q.hard for many Remainers to understand this view of Theresa May as a Remainer (defined by immigration, citizens of nowhere, etc)
So May v.narrow support from any side
Here is the Mail on Sunday making the case that a deal is now needed for Brexit.
Will be interesting to see whether/how these arguments shift or do not shift views among the in-laws and other Essex Leavers next month/by January.
Will be interesting to see whether/how these arguments shift or do not shift views among the in-laws and other Essex Leavers next month/by January.
This 'No Deal Leave' view from pro-Leave Essex is a minority view: among the public various @yougov questions suggest that in range of 20-25% of people are pro-No Deal:, about half of 2016 Leavers do think No Deal could be a good outcome for Britain.
The foundational worldview underpinning support for 'no Deal Brexit' (esp Leave voters 65+)
Increasing mistrust of politicians; also big business
*and*
Very high levels of bedrock confidence in British state
(which will sort out practical responses to disruption of no deal)
Increasing mistrust of politicians; also big business
*and*
Very high levels of bedrock confidence in British state
(which will sort out practical responses to disruption of no deal)
Combining "a robust contempt for distant political institutions and a limitless faith in them"
A v.interesting insight from @SHGWilks responding to this thread
A v.interesting insight from @SHGWilks responding to this thread
Steve Hilton - recently self-appointed as an expert on populism - certainly knows Palo Alto, California much much much better than he does Billericay
