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David Puell @kenoshaking
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
@Awe_andWonder and I discussed this article yesterday and had some thoughts on it.

0/ Our rebutal relies on two main points...

a) The models are based on unreliable data.

b) Even if the data was fully reliable, the models provided are not applicable for forecasting or confirming a bottom.
2/ This is a replication of the average volume model usign the same CMC data we reckon was used for this analysis. When zoomed-out to the last cycle, you can easily see that it can keep making new highs while price keeps making new lows.
3/ This is a replication of the volume change model (same CMC data). As you can see, we are nowhere near relevant historical thresholds, and even if we were, it wouldn't imply we've bottomed.
4/ Every other source apart from CMC suggests that the traded volume in BTC (not traded value in USD) portrays a different pattern in its histogram. Here goes BLX and Bitcoinity's exchange volume in BTC (2017-2018):
5/ People seem to think that the regular histogram on Bitstamp or Bifinex as per TradingView portrays USD value. It does not. A simple comparison of the Bitstamp charts below (TV on the left to blue on the right as per data) confirms this.
6/ We think that on-chain data is much more reliable for diagnostics. Woo's NVT and Network Momentum portray a better sense of current fundamental valuation:…
7/ If activity defined by BTC turnover is what matters, then if BTC was trading at $1 and someone bought $2M, the BTC turnover in this scenario would be greater than the current turnover of about $1.2M. That isn't a fair representation of the economic value in each daily auction.
8/ Finally, we provide the BTC volume histogram as per, which should also be taken with a grain of salt. It's just the best "fit" so far.
Fin/ #DYOR.
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