It seems incredible to me we should be asked to *welcome* the prospect of being a non-voting member of the customs union, with the EU controlling our trade and customs policy. 1/
To be clear about how this would work: when the EU signed a trade agreement with a third country (eg China), in the backstop the U.K. would be compelled to make all the market concessions agreed by the EU BUT that third country would not need to extend its concessions to us. 2/
In other words, there would be no reciprocity. None. We would become the EU’s expendable bargaining chip in its trade negotiations. 3/
Meanwhile our own country would be slowly prised apart (this is why the DUP hate the backstop). Northern Ireland would be treated differently to the rest of the U.K., becoming a rule-taker in further areas including agricultural products and VAT. 4/
As recently confirmed by the Head of U.K. Customs, this would require the introduction of new paperwork to trade between NI and the rest of the country, directly contradicting repeated Government promises this would never happen. 5/
Ministers insist the backstop would only be temporary, but the U.K. will not be able to leave it without the EU’s consent. That sounds pretty much like “vassalage” to me, whatever James K suggests. This arrangement is almost completely unprecedented in international law. 6/
To add insult to injury: the backstop is completely unnecessary. All parties have been crystal clear nobody will erect a hard border in Ireland. It is not an “insurance policy” as there is no risk against which to insure. 7/
If and when the backstop came into effect, the price we would pay to leave it would be enormous. Remember how on the very day the Withdrawal Agreement was published, President Macron specifically cited the “leverage” he would exert to secure access to our fishing waters? 8/
In other words, do not be taken in. Brexit did not mean being locked in the customs union without a vote or a voice at the table, unable to leave without the permission of other countries. Ending up in the backstop would represent the very opposite of taking back control. 9/
Signing up to a Withdrawal Agreement containing the current provisions would be an act of surrender - and would almost certainly trigger an election as the DUP would very probably abandon a Government that did so. So it’s time to stop pretending problems can be wished away. Ends/
