Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Lithium supply is NOT a constraint on the production of electric vehicles

New Dutch PhD thesis gives new oxygen to this myth that will not die.
Let me show you why it's bollocks.
With quick explanations, pictures and links to ample evidence.

‘Electric cars will not dampen global warming’ says this newspaper headline.

I was already asked about it by (among others) @hotzehofstra and @MatthijsSienot
dvhn.nl/groningen/Prom…

Turns out the thesis contains a lot of talk about biomass, circular economy and other things that are considered as better than EVs but the only hard constraint to EVs is lithium supply.

Link to thesis here.
rug.nl/research/porta…

A short digression: in 2010 I already confronted the ‘lithium scarcity myth’ in an opinion piece in @FD_Nieuws (Dutch Financial Times)

Turned out the hubbub then was caused by someone into very weird 9/11 conspiracies and no Lithium expert
fd.nl/binaries/13/08…

This fraud (I don’t like ad hominems but I called him at home where he pretented to sit in a large office etc etc: he was, completely and total) claimed the total amount of lithium was a problem. But experts say we already know where to find enough for billions of cars.

Know that you need 143 gram/kWh, so 10kg/car gives you a nice 70kWh battery.

Know also that we already know where to find 53 million tonnes says the USDG.

Divide them and know it’s enough for 5 billion cars.

And we can always search for more.
minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/…

Back to the PhD. He agrees there's enough lithium but assumes supply cannot grow faster than 8%/y.

I see this as THE crux of his EV argument but the support for that is only 2 pages in his thesis, with only 8 references, no in depth market research and no source after 2012.

So let’s boil it down before we go on:

Miedema: ‘For EVs to catch on production would need to grow pretty fast’

Auke: ‘Yup. Recent growth about 50%/year’

Miedema: ‘That means lithium supply needs to grow more than 8% per year’

Auke: ‘Of course’

Miedema: ‘Not gonna happen’

Since I’ve been watching lithium production since my 2010 opinion piece I know most experts disagree. Let me lay it out for you.

Many experts claim that lithium prices are ‘over the hump’ since they came down in 2018: not exactly the look of a market not able to keep up with demand. (I think they will stay pretty high btw.)
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lith…

The big story of 2018 was a prediction by Morgan Stanley that prices would drop 45% because of oversupply untill 2025. (Many experts disagree and claim prices will remain strong and demand will increase faster, but still.)
ft.com/content/66012f…

Understanding of the market can be gleaned from this graph that shows that new resources are brought online as soon as prices are expected to rise with ample room to scale up already.
valuewalk.com/2018/02/despit…

Let’s ask some others. How about my favorite EV watchers at BloombergNEF? On okt 2017 their heading read: “End in Sight to Near-Term Lithium Supply Shortages”. (And we all know now that long term is no problem. Right?)
about.bnef.com/blog/end-sight…

Or how about the BP statistical yearbook?
They say they get this question a lot so they have an answer ready.
Again: 'Nope.'
bp.com/content/dam/bp…

Need me to pile on some more? Deutsche bank did a very thorough study in 2016. They think supply was a bit late to respond but they already predict the temporary overshoot Morgan Stanley tasks about.
europeanlithium.com/wpcontent/uplo…

Let’s end with that ultimate source of mineral knowledge, the USDG. They already told us there is enough lithium and there are substitutes. Any more remarks as of last year? My summary: ‘The minerals community is aware of the issue and bringing new capacity online everywhere.’

So who are you going to believe on lithium scarcity?

In one corner most experts in the industry and lots of statistics.

In the other corner an innovation science PhD that quickly produced 2 pages 6 years ago.

Your call.

/end

(P.s. Better yet: research it yourself!)