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AukeHoekstra @AukeHoekstra
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2018 UPDATE of my series about @IEA versus reality in solar PV

Once again reality is steeply increasing
and once again the IEA is having none of it

Don't these guys ever learn?
This has been going on since 2002
Seems their models simply can't conceive of exponential growth
Here is the article describing how I made the 2017 graph.

The new 2018 graph is using the @IEA WEO that was published last week but the method is the same every year: take the cummulative totals from the WEO and derive yearly production from that.
steinbuch.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/pho…
Are you wondering: "How is this possible?"
I've been wondering the same thing!

I've written a blogpost about that but would love your input

Short version:
experts in how things are will be the last to come to grips with big transformations
steinbuch.wordpress.com/2017/10/20/bet…
Are you looking for a peer reviewed publication to quote?
We've got you covered!
(It's mainly about how to make better models like we do at our firm ZEnMo.com but prominently contains the 2017 graph. It's open access.)
hindawi.com/journals/compl…
And are you looking for last years discussions? (Lots of discussions, some very enlightening for me personally too.) Here is a link to last years tweet with all the threads underneath it.
Last thoughts.

This shows solar is underestimated.

We should to learn to believe in exponential growth innovationorigins.com/tomorrow-good-…

Energy is not scarce. Materials and ecosystems are innovationorigins.com/tomorrow-is-go…

It doesn't show the energy transition is easy. But it's possible!
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More from @AukeHoekstra see all

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.@MLiebreich describes how conservatives might tackle climate change. I'm not a conservative but this is something I can engage with. So read this thread!

And if you want, come back for some "progressive" observations on who our real enemies are.
I personally think nation states are idealized by conservatives which leads to misplaced self aggrandizing (UK and US exceptionalism is rampant), wars, follies like Brexit, and the inability to democratize institutions larger than nation states.
This whole idea of national sovereignty as a sacred idea is a crock imho. Individual sovereignty is defensible. All layers above should simply be judged by their added value in terms of letting the lower levels thrive and be happy. Nations are a means to that end. Nothing more.
Read 10 tweets
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In tonight's earnings call it became official.
@Tesla is making money and realized a dream 2 decades in the making:
start a car company that produces a mass market electric vehicle.

Tonight has proven most financial analysts wrong.
thread
wccftech.com/tesla-quarterl…
I've been telling this story for a couple of years now so I also feel a bit vindicated myself 😃

For me it was always about three simple questions:
1) Can they make money on the Model 3?
2) Can they sell the Model 3?
3) Can they ramp up production before they run out of money?
Question 1: I've done my own theoretical tear down (with a couple of master students I supervised) and concluded @Tesla could make ~15-20% profit on the Model 3.
Munro recently did a tear down and put it closer to ~30% due to a "symphony of engineering".
cnet.com/roadshow/news/…
Read 20 tweets
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It just struck me: US conservatives cling to guns the way they cling to fossil fuels, religion, race and heterosexuality. It's a fear or inability to assess consequences through any other lense than tribe and/or identity. That diagnosis might be the first step to a cure. (thread)
First of: us-vs-them is objectively passe. Our current global problems have little to do with tribe or identity. E.g. global warming does not care about race, sexuality, nation or political affiliation. We need solutions that work for everyone.
Finding and implementing those solutions requires systemic (preferably scientific) analysis in which tribe and identity are nothing more than bias and noise. So why are solutions framed in terms of tribe and identity?
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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@phenrikand 1/ I’ve been in the digital cash and eMoney space since 1999 for co-design bit.ly/NavyCash It was centralised command control money digital USD on an EMV card where the backend -> every transaction traced & tracked by float manager @jpmorgan debitcard ATMs via @Mastercard
@phenrikand @jpmorgan @Mastercard 2/ Every Navy base & every ship in a flotilla was like an island🌴 at sea (at any point in time it could have only local and no or limited comms back to treasury) Similar to today’s offchain and onchain networks eventually reconciliation would happen. DoubleSpends manual captured
@phenrikand @jpmorgan @Mastercard 3/ Proof of Work Blockchains tend to centralisation. The top5 PoW 💥 Blockchains generally work 💪and have a huge bounty on their embedded value across their networks PoS and others not so much
Read 15 tweets
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Today @SynapseEnergy released a new report commissed by @NRDC on the opportunities and challenges for decarbonizing heating in #California buildings. Here is a quick summary thread.
CA's buildings are responsible for 25% of the state's #GHG #emissions and more than half of those already come from combusion furnaces and water heaters.
Switching to efficient electric heat & hot water will have a significant impact on reducing gas use in California buildings. As CA’s electric grid shifts toward clean, #renewable energy sources, #emissions from electric heat will continue to drop.
Read 16 tweets
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Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection has released the public redacted bids submitted under its 12 TWh/year Zero Carbon Energy RFP. Going to sift through them today and provide some highlights. #procurement #cleanenergy #offshorewind #nuclear #hydro #solar
1/ Background: On July 31, 2018, DEEP issued the final RFP for Zero Carbon Energy, soliciting proposals for up to 12 TWh/year of qualified zero carbon energy and associated environmental attributes. Proposals were due September 14. dpuc.state.ct.us/DEEPEnergy.nsf…
2/ Background: Eligible resources included New England nuclear power generating facilities (i.e., Millstone and Seabrook), existing and incremental hydropower, zero carbon Class I resources (i.e., solar, onshore/offshore wind), and paired & co-located energy storage.
Read 16 tweets
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#Series ¡Me gustó la música de #Versailles! He terminado las dos primeras temporadas de esta ambiciosa serie de #ficciónhistórica disponible en @NetflixLAT, y ya espero la tercera y última temporada. En este hilo compartiré una apreciación personal del #Score y del #Soundtrack.
En primer lugar va la intro, es tan poderosa, que no usé en ningún episodio la opción de saltar intro o adelantarla. Es un tema compuesto por los franceses @M83 llamado #Outro. Se puede escuchar en @Spotify - @SpotifyColombia :

open.spotify.com/track/2QVmiA93…
O si prefieren en @YouTube.

Read 22 tweets
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1 Timothy 5:1-25💒
"Instructions for the Church"
English Standard Version
1) "Do not rebuke an older man but encourage him as you would a father, younger men as brothers,"
2) older women as mothers, younger women as sisters, in all purity."
Read 26 tweets
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Since everyone is doing it: if you want an #unpopularopinion *about #solar power, give me a like.
* not guaranteed unpopular
1. Solar PV is too simple, the barriers to entry too low, for almost any large company to grow profitably over a long period.
2. Utilities & regulators need to start considering power tariffs that disincentivise consumer solar, and encourage power use at midday.
Read 29 tweets

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