Thread by @IanDunt

It's been a pretty mad day around Westminster today. Good-natured, but full on. Campaigners, preachers, film crews. It's quite chaotic out there.

There is now a large People's Vote march outside parliament making a lot of noise.

So anyway, I better pay attention to the debate, seeing as we're slowly coming to the end of it all. Here's the low-down on the amendments so you can follow along.

The Murrison amendment, which had the tacit support of the government, has not been selected by the Speaker. That means that their little bullshit get-out plan seems to have collapsed.

It would have set a date for the end of the backstop, which the EU would have rejected. So it functioned as a de-facto no-deal amendment. But it might have reduced the scale of the defeat, so the govt was happy with it.

That alone speaks to how fucked they are - nodding along amendments which would sabotage their own trade deal to limit a Commons defeat to just the double digits.

Bercow selected four amendments. You can see them all here publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…

Amendment A is Corbyn's. This basically deletes the whole motion and sticks Labour's own unicorn Brexit policy on top of it.

I read it that a wrecking amendment, because it kills the deal, but the Speaker suggested earlier that even if passed they'd still vote on May's deal. Anyway, it doesn't matter. It won't pass.

Amendment K is by the SNP's Ian Blackford. Again, it just deletes May's deal and sticks the SNP's policy on top of it. Same shit. Won't pass. Isn't meaningful.

Amendment B is from Tory Edward Leigh. It gibbers a bunch of meaningless nonsense about the law of treaties, which he does not understand.

Neither does he understand the concept of 'temporary' apparently. His test for whether the backstop is permanent is based on whether it is in place in December 2021, which is a year before it is likely to come into place.

The man is a moron. Presumably he wrote it in crayon.

The final amendment is Amendment F by Tory John Baron. It seeks the right for the UK to revoke the backstop provision unilaterally.

The Leigh and Baron amendments are, to my mind, as bad as the Murrison amendment. Neither would be tolerable to the EU because both set conditions on the backstop which would make it redundant.

Both are therefore de-facto no-deal amendments. It;s possible that lots of Brexiters will attach themselves to these as a way of supporting the deal. But by not selecting Murrison, Bercow killed the momentum behind it.

I also feel too many Brexiters have gone too far in saying they'll vote against the deal to back down now, even if technically they'd an amendment to justify it. So I doubt they'll make much difference.

Still, you never know. The expectations that May will lose by something like 200 votes sets the expectations so high that even chipping off a few votes into those amendments would be treated by No.10 as a justification for her to keep going.

Anyway, it is very likely that all those amendments will be defeated. And then they'll vote on the government motion (May's deal), which will also be defeated. My expectation is that it'll be voted down by a majority of 150 or so.

Current timetable is May speaks and closes debate at 6:30. Voting starts after that. We should get to the vote on the deal by 8pm.

Interesting (maybe). Corbyn says it's not enough to oppose - you have "to be for something".

"In the coming days it is vital this House has the opportunity to debate and vote on the way forward, to consider all the options available."

But then starts banging on about EU reopening negotiations. Does not mention second referendum.

Now he mentions general election.

Yep, speech ends and no mention of second ref.

However, I am not a fan of deep textual analysis of Corbyn right now. The situation is likely to shift aggressively in the next couple of weeks. We already know he doesn't like 2nd ref. Question is whether he can be forced into it.

May is now up. Steel yourself for bludgeoning tedium.

Standard argument on general election promise of referendum. MPs vote for general election. And then the referendum. Although she does admit the result was not "overwhelming" - rare for her, given she's governed like it was a 90% Leave result.

"Responsibility on each and every one of us is profound." She says options are to give up on Brexit (YAY THERESA) then says that's a bad idea. Further division yadda yadda.

Then no-deal. "I don't believe that;s what the British people voted for." Interesting, that blocks her off a bit.

May talking about her deal is the standard way - badly argued, badly delivered. You can feel yourself decay as she speaks.

Jesus she's shit.

Final option is Corbyn's idea of an election. She says, rightly to be fair, that it's a shit idea that solves nothing.

Now pretending her deal strikes " a fair balance" between Remainers and Leavers. What unutterable tosh.

Now the usual lies. If MPs vote for her deal "the government will work harder to take parliament with us". Heh yes, of course you will

Huh, took an intervention. Odd. It's Leigh. Has an amendment tonight. Face like a cheap burger.

He asks her what he makes of it. She says govt isn't able to accept it due to different interpretation of Vienna convention, but government will "look at alternative solutions".

"As prime minister for whole UK it;s my duty to put in place a solution for the whole UK". Standard defence of backstop.

She gives way to DUP Westminster leader Nigel Dodds. He says it is "out of order" to use peace in NI as an argument in this. Absurd rubbish. The argument is an attempt to prevent a return to violence, so plainly that forms part of the conversation.

May commendably stern. "That insurance policy is essential. Any model.... requires that insurance policy. No backstop means no-deal now and for the foreseeable future."

Hectic atmosphere. Huge noise coming from outside in parliament square. Angry and dramatic scenes in Commons. It's coming from all sides at the moment. A carnival of shite.

May as good, and correct, as I have ever seen her when attacking Corbyn. Genuinely. "He has failed in his responsibility to provide a credible alternative to the government of the day."

She really stepped it up there. That bordered on eloquent.

"This is the most significant vote that any of us will ever be part of in our political careers. The time has now come for all of us in this House to make a decision, a decision which will define our country for decades to come."

"We know the consequences of voting for this deal. they are laid out in black and white. But no-one who votes against this deal will be able to tell their constituents what real world outcome they voted for."

This is a lie of course, there is huge uncertainty about what happens under her deal - starting with the next cliff edge in July next year on extending transition. But she has suddenly improved in delivery.

"Tonight we can chose certainty over uncertainty, unity over division." Terribly misleading crap. She's improving her sales pitch, but the product is still defective.

"With my whole heart I call on this whole House to discharge this responsibility together". And that's it. It's happening.

Corbyn doesn't move amendment A. Wow.

Blackwood doesn't move his. Fuck. Leigh doesn't move. What the hell.

Baron moves his. But the Nos shout him down, trying to stop a vote on the amendment. Extraordinary scenes.

He stands his ground though and demands the amendment is voted on. So there's a division. That was very fucking weird.

Everyone seems to want a clean vote. But that was really odd.

Right, this'll take a few mins.

To explain what happened (and there are much more informed and experienced parliamentary watchers than me) that happened because Corbyn and Blackford clearly decided to make this sharp, clean and harsh.

Having some lost Labour amendments etc beforehand didn't play into that, I suppose. Leigh gave in because he said he got assurances from the PM (they were pretty meaningless). But Baron insisted on having his amendment voted on.

OK, think we're about to get a result. Quick reminder that this amendment is likely to be heavily defeated and therefore doesn't really matter. Scale doesn't matter. Any defeat gets rid of it and we can get to the vote on the deal.

Right, here it comes.

Ayes: 24 Nos: 600

Hilarious. What a waste of our fucking time.

OK, so glad we got that out the way. It's time for the main event. Division on the motion.

We're doing a lot of sitting around here trying to think of any time something in the Commons was so heavily defeated.

No-one can think of anything.

.... I'm nervous. I know it's a certainty etc. But yeah, can't help it. MAYBE IT'S ALL BEEN A BREXITER TRICK TO FUCK WITH US AND THEN ALL VOTE FOR HER DEAL.

(It isn't).

The Chamber is very full now. We're nearly there.

OK here it comes.

Ayes 202 Nos 432

Fuckinell.

Gosh. May is up. "Tonights' vote tells us nothing" about what parliament wants to do. Will it respect the vote? Will there be no-deal.

May says she will take a no-confidence vote. She is trying to force Corbyn's hand.

She says she is now prepared to hold meetings in parliament to find a way forward. She says she wants to offer reassurance that govt will not try to run down the clock to March 29th.

This is interesting. And positive. She says she will table an amendable motion by Monday.

She also insists she will deliver on Brexit. "The government has heard what the House has said tonight but I urge members on all sides to listen to the British people, who want this issue settled."

Corbyn is up. Says the verdict is "decisive". Surely he has to trigger no-confidence now.

Huge roars from outside parliament as the results start filtering out.

"I therefore inform you I have now tabled a motion of no-confidence." It's on.

The leader of the House gets up. "I should like to make a short business statement about the business of tomorrow." Heh. I bet. Bercow stops her. He wants points of order first.

Guys. Shit is going down.

Blackford demands Article 50 is immediately suspended and that talks immediately start with all opposition parties.

(Sorry Blackford is from the SNP, should've mentioned) (That was not a point of order)

Lib Dem Jo Swinson asks Bercow how "parliament can assert its authority". He says she'll be able to out her opinion in the debate the PM already mentioned.

SNP MP McNeil wants to know when House can test the various options. We're covering the same ground here.

SNP MP Whitford asks about the case of Tulip Siddiq, who came into parliament to vote and had to delay her casarian section to do so. She brands it "disgraceful". Bercow says the situation is "lamentable".

Yvette Cooper. The unofficial leader of the opposition is talking. PM said she'd listen to voices across the House. She had two years to do that. She failed, and now she has suffered the worst defeat in a hundred years.

Given the scale of the challenge, PM needs to say what happens with Article 50. What can parliament do to urge May to "seek an immediate extension of Article 50 now"?

Bercow says these are matters for tomorrow, and they must be discussed on the floor of the House. "That which members wish to debate and which they determine should be subject to a vote, will be debated and voted on." That was a pointed comment to the govt.

Leader of the House is up. Tory MPs in state of chaos, shouting sit-down to Bercow. Leadsom trying to attack him. She confirms there is a motion of no-confidence tomorrow.

The opposition agrees to the debate tomorrow. That's it. It's happening.

.@AdamBienkov is currently being not very silently proud of getting closest to the winning number. And berating fact he didn't put money on it.

@AdamBienkov The debate tomorrow will take place for the whole day tomorrow until 7pm (presumably starts after PMQs)

@AdamBienkov That's annoying. I had plans tomorrow night. Bloody Brexit.

@AdamBienkov Bercow says it's time to proceed to subsequent motions, namely on energy conservation. Well, that's that for the night.

@AdamBienkov OK, so that was pretty fucking dramatic. I'll drop it of here now to write it up. Get some rest. It all kicks off hard again tomorrow.