,
11 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
I agree with those who say that the Government should rule out a no-deal Brexit. It would remove much of the business and citizen uncertainty, allow Government to do its job better, and not hinder the UK negotiating approach ...1/
There has always been an argument that the UK needs to show the EU we would leave without a deal to get a better deal. It is based on the idea of BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) but with one fatal flaw - it probably isn't the UK's best alternative... 2/
Simply, the EU has never believed the UK would leave without a deal, and won't be convinced by some half hearted preparation. They can count MPs as well as anyone. And there are alternative BATNAs if someone wants to go into that... 3/
There may have been a couple of civil servants or perhaps Special Advisers impressed with UK no-deal planning, but the vast majority of businesses exposed to it are unimpressed that officials are unable to answer even basic questions 4/
Government preparations for leaving the EU are in fact being hampered for they now have to prepare for deal and no-deal - both complex - in a chaotic environment where Ministers are struggling to make decisions 5/
Meanwhile business and individuals are having to spend money preparing for no-deal, much of which is non-productive (although oddly not all - some businesses are finding this a good opportunity to improve their operations) 6/
Those business plans being implemented include moving assets abroad - losing 5,000 jobs here and there doesn't necessarily make a big impact on economic figures, but cumulatively it weakens the economy and these are often good jobs 7/
Removing no-deal also changes the political situation - think of it as removing the most unpopular option in a preference situation. Now what does that mean for the numbers supporting different options. It helps move us towards consensus 8/
If the PM cannot make this move it starts to look like MPs will try to take this decision on her behalf next week. A lead negotiator must be aware of what their Parliament will support - you can't be a lead negotiator in this situation 9/
Simple step - "From initial consultations it has been made clear to me that Parliament will not support a no-deal outcome in March. I therefore commit that my Government will take all steps to avoid this outcome." 10/ end
PS "You can chuck that ferry contract in the bin now Grayling, that was the moment we all knew deep down this wasn't working....."
