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Friday afternoon, and that means it is Brexit Probability Tracker time. Indeed this is the 6 month anniversary, the first probabilities having been published on 20 July 2018. What then do we make of it all after this week?
Simple in fact this time, there are four serious options on the table - no deal, this deal, EEA, and referendum - and they are for the first time all scored at 20% probability (to note I have never had a A50 extension chance). However... 
The Labour Party's preferred Customs Union Brexit is very similar to the PM's deal, and so together something in this ballpark remains the most likely outcome. As I have said before I rank no-deal lower than some commentators, but given high impact serious prep is needed
And here is 6 months of measurement - in our first week no-deal was in fact at a peak - 40% - and I am inclined to agree with the many commentators who think that the no-deal crowd have actually damaged their own wider credibility in this time
