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What's the biggest Brexit development in past 24 hours: May's catastrophic ring-round of EU leaders. What does it mean? She has no Plan B and Cabinet is too split to formulate one 1/...
2/ The legislative agenda if the next 5 days is already being set by Boles/Grieve - Tory backbenchers operating with cross-party campagns and machines. This means there is no effective government...
3/ The cross-party leadership talks are going nowhere unless May brings an emergency bill to postpone Article 50. Therefore we do not have any kind of de facto process to solve this at party level...
4/ The leak of the threat to resign by pro-Brexit Labour junior ministers is signal they feel under pressure from grassroots members and voters; meanwhile Corbyn is exerting force on the negotiations but has no way of exerting control over the situation... therefore...
5/ Everything is heading towards an election. May cannot govern - Cabinet paralysed by factions - FCO cannot do diplomacy - No Deal looming. All are solved by calling a snap election...
6/ I predicted she would pull the first vote. On basis of same sources I predict she will run the clock down for 2-3 weeks then call a snap election. Cabinet will revolt but too late: it's by then a party led by May, Barwell and Gibb, who will impose "the deal" as the manifesto
7/ For Labour supporters this means getting ready to force Clause V meeting to pledge Remain and Reform - with a second referendum to seal the deal and cancel the first. Election is May's way of neutering PV so while it's important the political battle is over the endgame. ENDS
