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1) Pres Juncker just said on #Brexit "Don't force me to speculate, let me do what I can" (original in French: "laissez moi faire")
2) There’s talk of a Juncker/Tusk letter by Monday setting out EU reassurances on the backstop. This is not 100% confirmed
3) But Presidents Juncker and Tusk cannot unilaterally change the text or meaning of the #Brexit deal. It has been signed off by the 27 EU leaders and they need to be onboard and to agree to any changes
4) Realisation in EU at this stage that reassurances alone won’t swing it for the EU-Theresa May #Brexit deal. But there’s also a realisation that parliament is so split that offering something ‘significant’ now might be a waste of time and political capital
5) Yes, time is ‘running out’ but EU regularly operates as the clock runs down (remember Greek debt crisis?). EU leaders want to see the vote next week and understand how the numbers fall before discussing amongst themselves what they can do
6) Just to emphasise: no-one in EU is considering abolishing the backstop. No-one
7) But some EU countries are more open than others about trying to ‘do something’. France is not feeling flexible. Macron wants to avoid a no-deal #Brexit but if it happens it suits his message that the only successful way forward in Europe is together inside the EU
8) Ireland is getting VERY nervous about ‘no deal’ as would hit trade hard but PM Varadkar is in weak position politically at home. A move by him to weaken the #Brexit backstop (even if he were tempted) would NOT go down well
9) Whereas backstop is viewed as political impossibility/ EU plot by some in UK - in EU circles it’s seen as a safeguard of Good Friday Agreement AND as a border guarantee for the single market after #Brexit (EU/UK customs border would normally run through the island of Ireland)
