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In today’s EU letter of assurances on #Brexit deal, the real message to MPs to help Theresa May is the EUs insistance that -as PM claims- this deal is the ONLY deal on offer. The content of the letter: reassurances on the backstop etc we’ve (often) heard from Brussels before 1
The content of the letter comes as no surprise at all to PM. Ahead of Tuesday’s vote communications are wide open between No10 and Brussels. The EU also waited for PMs go-ahead as to exactly when to release the letter but 2
None of my European contacts believe their letter will get the deal passed in Tuesday’s vote. They see that the PM does not have parliament behind her but they support her in effort to concentrate MPs minds with implicit threat that it’s this deal, no deal, (or no #Brexit ) 3
But Europe will watch Tuesday’s vote very closely. EU leaders want to see numbers and trends. Will MPs start gathering around one particular alternative to this #Brexit deal? Or one particular change to the deal that the EU could eventually swallow? 4
The internal EU conversation about what could come next only starts officially after Tuesday’s vote. The EU wants to avoid a no deal #Brexit - it will show more openness in the end than it continues to signal today. BUT it won’t seek a deal at any cost 5
