Thread by @vickyford

I have just been sent 30 Truths about Leaving on WTO Terms... think of them what you will ...

1 Myth:The UK won’t have to pay £39 bn
Truth:UK owes money for commitments legally entered into while a member. If we walk away, it undermines our reputation as a country which keeps its legal obligations, we won’t get a decent trade deal & they will insist we settle our debts.

2: It avoids the uncertainty which the transition period would bring
Not true. Business leaders are clear that a no-deal Brexit brings uncertainty. The two-year transition period (only available via the Withdrawal Agreement) has been one of the top asks from business..

3. We will be able to use administrative measures to solve the Irish border issue, without needing a backstop

Even the lightest touch borders in the world – eg Norway/Sweden – have border infrastructure. Administrative measures can reduce border frictions, but cannot eliminate

4. Myth :After resolving Irish border issue, the UK will be able to enter a Canada +++ style free trade deal, as suggested by Donald Tusk

Fact: Tusk clearly said that such a deal was on offer for GB and not NI – thus leading to unacceptable customs border in the Irish Sea.

5. Myth: WTO is a haven. 6 of EU’s top 10 trade partners trade under WTO
Fact: Clearly Japan feels that this is not acceptable as has agreed a new FTA with the EU. Russia trades with the EU mostly in energy, which isn’t in FTAs & most EU trade is within the Single Market.

6. UK exports to countries trading on WTO terms have grown 3x faster than to the Single Market
Fact: EU is by miles our largest trading partner. While exports to China did increase by around 150% between 2007- 17, this level is just 4% of exports. Dont throw our EU trade away!

Just getting in a ✈️now so will pop some more up later !

7. Myth: we save costs as EU tariffs on exports from UK are <50% of UK net payment to EU budget

Fact: non-tariff barriers eg differing regulatory standards or border delays are often bigger costs than tariffs. Economic costs of no-deal exit much bigger than EU budget saving.

8. The UK is already a WTO member so would not need to re-join it.

Yes - actually that is true.

9. We can start to trade on the new tariff schedules as soon as we leave, without waiting for agreement from other WTO members.

Possibly Yes, but this comes with with a significant risk of challenge from other countries.

10. The UK is making progress in replicating EU’s most important preferential trade arrangements eg Switzerland has agreed to carry over preferences

Fact Some progress has been made, such as with Swiss gov. However, swiss deal is only the 2nd ‘rollover’ out of the 40 the EU has.

11. There will be no medicine shortages
Fact: Emergency measures taken by the Government and the industry will secure supply in the short term. Medium term arrangements depend on a permanent agreement with the EU.

12. There will be no food shortages

Fact: This is simply not what the industry has said.  Given the degree of food imports, and the time-critical nature of the sector, this cannot be asserted.

13 Myth: Scares about delays to imports are ‘ludicrous’, because Britain will control its borders.

Fact: We can’t just do as we please in a “no deal”.

Rules from WTO & WCustomsO still apply. This means customs declarations for each import. Some friction is inevitable.

✍🏼Meeting about to start so will send some more later ...

14 Manufacturing supply chains & goods deliveries will not be significantly affected.

Fact: Industry is clear that RoW customs processes mean additional cost & uncertainty into the supply chains for products that transfer to & from the EU. This impacts competitiveness & jobs

15. The UK will not run out of clean water

So threatening UK runs out clean water feels like project fear me as obvs the Government will do all it can to maintain supplies of necessary chemicals.

But

Fact: these chemicals currently come from EU under existing arrangements.

16. HMRC’s existing computer systems will be able to handle extra customs declarations

HMRC is putting in place the most robust arrangements possible.

But ... the number customs declarations is expected to increase fivefold.... so...

17. France is determined to prevent delays to incoming lorries

Fact: France is obliged to follow EU rules on external customs borders eg the requirement to check agrifood products at a specialist inspection point. Same for ports in Belgium & Netherlands

18. Planes will continue to fly to the US & elsewhere

That’s true BUT

19. Planes will still be able to fly to & from the EU

Fact: The EU will put in place temporary arrangements - but these could be withdrawn
Certainty for aviation requires a permanent agreement with the EU.

20. Existing contingency plans (Op Stack & Brock) will be able to handle any tailbacks in Kent

Mythbuster says “The likely reduction in capacity at Dover could reach 87% & last for months, far in excess of any previous disruption”

My thought-not sure where 87% from, poss OTT

21 UK citizens will not face high mobile phone roaming charges when travelling to the EU.

FACT This is actually quite a bit more complicated tho’ good news is UK operators have said they have no current plans to change ... see letter from @margot_james_mp to MPs this week..

So ... to be clear I think

1. No deal exit is not good for UK or EU
2. U-turning on referendum would also not be good for UK or EU
3. Delaying exit risks prolonging uncertainty for UK & EU
4. 2nd referendum would also be highly divisive

- so please let’s keep working on deal!

22. Aircraft manufacturers will still be able to export parts, such as Airbus wings, despite claims to the contrary.

Mythbust: Long-term certainty needed to support Airbus jobs in the UK will need a permanent agreement with EU.

23. British haulage companies will still be able to operate between the UK and the EU.

Myth-bust: EU has agreed this on a temporary basis. Certainty on details can only be guaranteed with a long term agreement with the EU.

24. Trade in animals, plants and food will continue after Brexit.

Of course it will. But if “no deal” will be subject to new tariffs and import inspections & possible delays.

28. UK car manufacturers have obtained approvals to sell their models in the EU.

Myth buster says “Yes – but at significant cost.”

However I’m not so sure that this mythbust is true since I getting new type approvals for older models can be challenging.

Sorry that should have been 25...

26. New VAT rules will not affect the cashflow of importers.

Mythbust says “Yes” this is true ... 😀

Note - this isn’t one that I’ve spoken to people affected about so I haven’t verified.

27. British musicians and other performers will still be able to tour the EU.

Yes, but subject to restrictions and permissions for non EU performers – which vary from member state to member state.

28. “Micro” trade agreements will not be a big issue.

Myth-bust There is no evidence to support this. The reality is that some will be easier to renegotiate than others.

29. The UK could take up Japan’s invitation to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

yes in principle and this will be great, but also subject to the conditions of that agreement.

In fact, we already have preferential access to most of the TPP countries via EU trade deals.

30. Bilateral trade deals do not have to take a long time to negotiate - average time is 28 months.

True BUT multilateral deals (such as the one with the EU) take longer as needs agreement of all parties. And remember implementation takes longer after negotiations finish.