Thread by @thatgingerish

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate Here’s the deal. This number is identical to how many Utah reported in 2005.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate It’s also how many Maricopa county might have denied the vote to in 2016. It’s also how many felons might have voted in Florida in 2000.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate This number also is the amount of people who voted early on the first day of early voting in Dallas County in 2016.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate There are, according to Pew Research, 1,650,000 illegal immigrants in the state of Texas. If 58,000 voted that would mean 3.5% of illegal immigrants voted, with drivers licenses, in 2018. They would have needed to show up to the correct polling station during...

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate early voting (as they would not be on the rolls for the day-of). 4,515,136 Texans voted early and in person in 2018. That would make illegal votes around 1.2% of all votes cast early and in person.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate Now, Paxton specifically says they have drivers licenses and we all know that illegal immigrants cannot get drivers licenses in Texas:

dallasnews.com/life/curious-t…

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate For the doubters here’s a quick screen shot of requirements for a TXDL:

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate So my guess is he’s working off of this article which is about democrats sending voter registration cards to non-citizen but Drivers-License-holding legal TX residents:

m.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/…

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate That means it’s a smaller pool - based on 2016 numbers that would be 1,184,000 possible drivers licenses to legal non-citizen residents. With 83% of eligible Texans holding a driver’s license and 25% of the population under 16, that means about 17 million citizens...

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate have drivers licenses (17.4 to be exact). According to the Texas Department of Public Safety, 17,357,632 Texans were licensed to drive in 2017.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate To have 58,000 non-citizens with driver’s licenses (likely almost all of them) vote illegally would really be astonishing — almost unbelievable. This is because the citizen population appears to statistically make up the entirety of the driver’s license population.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate I also want to add that when a non-citizen resident receives a driver’s license, the expiration date is set for the date their visa expires. This makes them prime targets for being picked up for overstaying a visa.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate It also dramatically increases the likelihood of any family members who might be illegal getting picked up (hence why the DREAMER/DACA situation is particularly troublesome). The idea that a few hundred thousand visa-holding non-citizens applied for valid DLs and...

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate Then were carefully discovered and sent voter registration cards, of which almost all of them had to attempt to register, is again...really phenomenal.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate I say all of this to lay a clear path to my personal opinion on Paxton’s statement: where’s the data? Where are the statistics? Because this sounds a lot like statistical bending to me.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate Just tacking on for clarity - the 58,000 number is over 22 years. That information is non-existent in Paxton’s press release and unfortunately isn’t being clarified by POTUS, TXSOS, or Paxton himself. (Press release here: texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/…)

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate If we take the numbers at face value - which I don’t think we should do without transparent statistics - that amounts to 5,272 votes per election or roughly 0.07% of the total Texas vote of any given year. That’s less than 1%...if taken at face value.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate More directly, it’s approximately 21 votes per Texas COUNTY per election.

This would be the case if and only if the numbers given by Paxton are correct and compiled in a valid way.

@KenPaxtonTX @TXsecofstate Because this thread appears broken up due to the comments while I was typing, I put together a moment for easy reading:

https://twitter.com/thatgingerish/status/1089618169130565632?s=21