,
15 tweets,
4 min read
Read on Twitter
1/ For what's worth. I went from supporting Bernie in 2016 to supporting Warren in 2020. I know when Bernie makes his announcement the Bernie haters will really come out. You will reveal just how you feel. We'll see the real ugly side. But, just think about this. One, had HRC
2/ not been challenged, she would have sleep-walked into the general campaign with an even weaker campaign. Here is Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg after saying she relied too heavily on data analytics: "The analytics model built around these assumptions was so
3/ simple-minded it portended disaster. Despite overwhelming evidence that the Democratic base wasn’t consolidated or excited, the campaign believed Trump’s tasteless attacks and Clinton’s identification with every group in the rainbow coalition would produce near
4/ universal support." alternet.org/how-she-lost-b… It was a defeat that long-time Democratic analysts were forecasting just during and after the Midwest primaries. Here is the National Committee for an Effective Congress, a group founded by Eleanor Roosevelt writing on May 4th after
5/ the Indiana primary--a primary Sanders won. With just an ever so slight dip in black turnout for Nov, the experts forecast a loss in several states--which is exactly what happened (the loss): "Let us assume for a moment that the overall African American vote drops from
6/ 13 percent, the 2012 share, to 12 percent of the electorate. Even if Clinton carries 90 to 95 percent of the overall African American vote, this drop in turnout could have a far-reaching impact on the overall race, leaving Clinton vulnerable in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania,
7/ and Wisconsin. Unlike the Romney effort in 2012, the Trump campaign will likely focus on Industrial Midwest states, attempting to capitalize on their anti-trade message.... In a scenario where Black turnout drops to 12 percent, and Trump gains a slightly greater share of the
8/ vote among lower-income blue collar Americans, the overall vote in Pennsylvania could be much closer than we’ve seen in recent elections.... But if Hillary Clinton is unable to tap into some of Sanders support among white blue collar voters, relying on the minority support to
9/ save her is a riskier proposition than in recent elections." dailykos.com/story/2016/05/…
10/ Let's turn to Ohio and the NCEC analysis of May 20th. Under 3 different scenarios they saw Clinton as vulnerable. They concluded with advice HRC ignored: "We are not suggesting that Trump has the advantage when analyzing the electoral map. Rather, we are confirming that
11/ his path to victory runs through states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.... Trump would need to negate that outcome (HRC wins CO & NV] with a victory in Michigan and possibly Minnesota." ncec.org/articles/20160…
12/ All of these unforced HRC errors came while she was battling an opponent who came from being an asterisk to getting 43% of the primary vote. HRC was pushed hard. And despite all the flashing red warning lights, ran a ridiculous campaign that Greenberg noted had no "strategy
13/ and compelling message." But, if you want to say that HRC lost because of the Russian attack, Wikileaks, NYT Clinton Cash, the bot army, Comey, etc, then why are you blaming Sanders for her loss? In May 2016, her losses in the Midwest to Trump were already being detailed on
14/ the basis of very conservative shifts in voter turnout and voting preferences from 2012. Any competent candidate and campaign would have shored up those weaknesses. Instead, she ignored them. So, hate Bernie. Vent your guts out. But, don't pretend you understand why HRC lost.
@threadreaderapp unroll for the masses
