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Toronto’s staff-recommended 2019 operating and capital budgets are set to launch this morning. Streaming live here:
Things we know about this budget:
1) Mayor John Tory and Budget Chief Gary Crawford have promised a residential property tax increase at or below inflation
2) They’ve also promised no service cuts
3) Land transfer tax revenue is not the cash cow it once was
1) Mayor John Tory and Budget Chief Gary Crawford have promised a residential property tax increase at or below inflation
2) They’ve also promised no service cuts
3) Land transfer tax revenue is not the cash cow it once was
City’s 2019 budget presentation is now online: toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2… (PDF)
Where the Money Comes From & Where the Money Goes for Toronto’s budget 2019. 
How the budget was balanced: residential property tax, water rate increase, TTC fare hike.
Municipal land transfer tax revenue was down $77 million from 2017 to 2018. Staff hoping that level holds for 2019.
Assuming council adopts the staff-recommended overall residential property tax increase of 2.55%, here’s where average property tax bill revenue will go. 77% to police, TTC, fire, parks, TCHC & debt.
News: in an effort to increase diversion rate of waste away from landfill, staff want Toronto to begin a multi-year phase out of rebates for garbage bins. Rebate for large-size bin will be removed this year - households with big bin will pay full cost, if council approves.
City will spend $26.2 billion on tax-supported capital projects over next ten years. 70% of that is mobility spending — mostly transit and roads.
State of Good Repair remains a challenge, as this red line keeps going up and we’d prefer it did not.
City is really pushing its (self-imposed) debt limit. Target is for ten-year average to be below 15%. It’s at 14.93% in this proposed budget, and everything after 2026 looks super optimistic.
Pie chart of new / enhanced spending for 2019. $54.7 in new spending, 53% to poverty reduction.
City Manager confirms this 2019 operating budget is NOT currently balanced. Staff will be looking for $10 million in savings over the next month to achieve actual balance.
In addition to the $10 million in savings IOU, the city’s draft 2019 operating budget also includes a request that the federal government give the city $45 million for shelter costs.
With a new city manager, there’s a new format to this budget presentation. More focus on explaining the basics and the process, but a lot of details are missing. Hoping they come later today.
A 1% residential property tax generates about $25 million in revenue for the city, so yep.
Under the staff-recommended garbage plan, all rebates for garbage bins will be phased out over the next three years. Here are the current rebates. Removing the rebate for small bins will mean a hefty annual increase for households.
Compare and contrast:
Left: City’s state of good repair backlog including the $2B to be spent on Gardiner rehab.
Right: City’s state of good repair backlog if you remove Gardiner spending.
Left: City’s state of good repair backlog including the $2B to be spent on Gardiner rehab.
Right: City’s state of good repair backlog if you remove Gardiner spending.
Notably, the city’s ten year capital budget does not yet include items identified in the TTC’s new capital investment plan — that $33 billion you heard about last week.
City’s capital funding strategy going forward. That plan to leverage city assets and reinvest proceeds from land sales may conflict with the Housing plan which seeks to use city-owned land for affordable housing.
Here is the budget schedule. There will be debate and changes. Final approval by council on March 7.
The mystery meat of Toronto’s 2019 operating budget:
$24 million in unspecified TTC spending reductions
$10 million in unspecified city spending reductions
$45 million in as-yet-unanswered request for federal shelter funding
—————
$79 million total.
$24 million in unspecified TTC spending reductions
$10 million in unspecified city spending reductions
$45 million in as-yet-unanswered request for federal shelter funding
—————
$79 million total.
List of new/enhanced services included in the 2019 operating budget are included here, starting on page 8. toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2… (PDF)
City set to spend $4 million on new/enhanced security at various places in 2019, including city hall. 18.6 new security guard positions added.
Early reaction from a member of the city’s budget committee to the new security spending included in the city’s draft budget.
Budget committee adjourns. For more fresh budget analysis from me, make sure you’re subscribed to @cityhallwatcher.
VERY SPECIAL budget launch issue coming your way around 5 p.m. today. graphicmatt.substack.com
VERY SPECIAL budget launch issue coming your way around 5 p.m. today. graphicmatt.substack.com
